This presidential campaign has seen more opinion polling than ever. But here’s why Tuesday’s outcome still might be a surprise, as reported by McClatchy Newspapers: Because of the “14 percent of Americans who don’t use landline phones at home, and thus aren’t called by many pollsters.” Because first-time voters and African-Americans could turn out in higher numbers than expected. And because “for every 100 households called, 75 to 80 refuse to be polled or don’t answer their phones.” Another tidbit: 55 percent of cell-only users support Barack Obama. Then again, that percentage was established via polling, which may or may not be reliable.
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81 Comments
Holy cow, are you suggesting shades of the 1948 presidential race when Harry S Truman unexpectantly beat Thomas Dewey?
Of course, there were no cell phones in 1948.
Holy cow again. The word should have been spelled “unexpectedly.”
I won’t breathe easy until the election is over. There are just too many “weighting” factors that go into these polls.
I’ve said a number of times that John McCain will win this election. I’m not so sure of that now, but McCain is the original Come Back Kid and there are a lot of factors that may help him that don’t show up in polls.
Like electronic voting machines that mysteriously flip over to the republican candidate.
Like disenfranchising voters.
republicans will do anything to win this election even if it includes stealing the vote.
Remember 2000 and 2004?
I do.
NEVER underestimate the Republican ability to cheat and steal. They’re scum and they are slime and they will do anything to win.
Rhonda has written this for different outcomes. Obama might win, McCain might pull off on upset, Obama might get a true landslide and mandate.
You know, the Republicans might try something like routing all the voting data through servers that are friendly with the GOP. Oh wait, they already did that in Ohio in 2004.
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Documents_reveal_how_Ohio_routed_2004_1031.html
They’re still using private companies to purge voter rolls like they did in 2000. Privatizing the elections, so whomever pays the most for a contract can win an election. The GOP simply hates America.
Of course the lawsuits will start right after the polls close. Even if Obama wins, there’s the Supreme Court to deal with.
Yeah, Republicans cheat if they win – heh
the forever-conspiracy driven minds of duh Libs…
“One complication caused by early voting is that the exit polls Tuesday will sample only 60-70% of the electorate and it may well be a biased sample given the fact that so many Democrats have voted early so Tuesday voters may be disproportionately Republicans.”
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html
Most seniors that I know voted early to avoid the lines on tuesday. Will this influence the exit polls for McCain or Obama? Interesting!
Only the counts at the end of the day will tell the story. Except in JRs head where the world is out to get him, all day every day.
Regular
Posted November 2, 2008 at 7:37 am | Permalink
Yeah, Republicans cheat if they win – heh
the forever-conspiracy driven minds of duh Libs
=========================================================
I see regular is on the attack already. Hey, that reminds me: turned that semi into an auto yet, so you can make this world a better place? Potential targets want to know.
BlueJay
Posted November 2, 2008 at 7:15 am | Permalink
Remember 2000 and 2004?
I do.
NEVER underestimate the Republican ability to cheat and steal. They’re scum and they are slime and they will do anything to win.
– - – - – - – - – - — – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – -
Of course you are right as always BJ. We all remember 2000 and 2004. The Democrats ran such top notch candidates that the only way they could have lost was if it was stolen from them.
NEVER underestimate the Democrats (especially on this blog) ability to point the finger of blame at everyone but themselves when things don’t go their way.
Why the polls might be wrong, or Hope Springs Eternal.
Obama’s lead is too great for repubs to get away with stealing another election.
2000 Gore was too closely associated with Clinton did not get my vote and I figured G.W. Bush would turn out like his dad did and be a vanilla President. 2004 should have not been as much of a surprise to me as it was. Most of the voters still have little information about the invasion and those behind it. As such Bush was still riding high on the wave of patriotism and his speech on the rubble. Pastors were pushing hard for Bush in churches and we had a choice of a heroic war time President or a Easterner Politician.
I do wonder how many of the early voting will somehow become lost in the process?
LOL and the way the campaign is going I am waiting for O’Reilly or Hannity to break the news that Barrack Obama is really Bella Abzuk.
Each time I bring up the youth vote I’m warned to not count on them showing up to vote, and it’s a fair warning because they really don’t have a great track record. But think about the 18 – 25 year old person.
They would have been 10 – 17 years old when bush took office. During all the years they were old enough to pay attention and understand anything about politics, bush has been the POTUS. They’ve grown up with war, Katrina, rising costs of essentials, bush trampling the Constitution they study in school. They were old enough to see the worry of their parents about being able to stretch money to buy gasoline, food and go to the doctor.
They don’t have some of the prejudices that older generations grew up with. They really aren’t as concerned with the color of skin, the sexual preference, religion differences, traditions, etc. They understand diversity and equality are desirable traits of a civilized world.
Don’t you think bush has probably influenced them to a greater degree than others have been influenced during those coming of age years? And who could think that influence has been a positive one?
I’m blessed with grandsons who are voting for the first time and I have spent time with them and their friends. I think growing up during the bush administration may have cemented a new generation of Democrats. And they are motivated!
There are a lot of complications or unexpected consequences caused by early voting no matter where one stands on the political spectrum.
As “Lindainks55″ points out above, exit polling and probably all polling is skewed by early voting.
Political literature is still arriving a week after I voted early. Perhaps it should have been mailed earlier to achieve maximum impact.
Perhaps politicians should time their campaigns to peak a week or so earlier also.
I don’t have any solid answers but think the subject needs discussion.
The students here are voting according to their parents. My daughter says regularly that she argues with them in current events classes and that they honestly don’t have a clue about what’s going on and they make a lot of the same stupid arguments that we hear on Faux or from PaulR.
Of course, one main reason that the outcome will not match the polls is for the same reason that the last two elections didn’t match the polls–the Repukes just steal the election.
In Florida 2000, they stole the election by disqualifying the “overvotes” in which people voted for Gore and then wrote in his name as well. They did this by slowing and eventually halting the recount.
In Ohio 2004, they just fiddled with the totals thanks to electronic voting machines.
That’s the easiest explanation as to why the exit polls didn’t match the apparent outcome.
Cell phones are being called. Last night, the governor called, bringing the total I’ve received up to six.
Here’s the breakdown:
Slattery – Recorded announcement
Peterson/Perez – Poll
Peterson/Perez – Poll
Peterson/Perez – Poll
Perez – Recorded announcement
From Gov. Sebelius – Recorded announcement
Two more on my unpulished home phone:
(Unknown) – poll?
Perez – Recorded announcement
My oldest daughter received a call on her cell phone, too.
I listened to each of the recorded announcements except the one unknown that came when I wasn’t home. I participated and answered each poll question asked. I don’t remember if I was asked in any of them about how I would vote for President.
Great post, Linda.
I just wish they’d put Bush on the campaign trail . . .
I think Linda makes an excellent point about the 18-25yr olds. This is a group that is notorious for not showing up to vote but these kids are not like when I was in that age group. These kids are listening and are starting to engage in the political process because maybe they are tired of the older generations deciding what their futures will be?
These kids are more savvy and are tuned into the technology of today. These kids get their news from different sources – not just newspapers, the networks or Fox News. These kids have been living through the last 8 years of Bush and have known firsthand the impact of his failed economic and foreign policies. Alot of these kids have families and/or friends that have lost their lives in the Iraq War – and some of these dead soldiers were in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s and were in the National Guard (which is not traditionally sent into combat).
Maybe some of these kids have seen their parents struggle to pay their bills. Mmaybe their parents have lost their jobs to outsourcing by some corporation that got a tax break from Bush to relocate their jobs overseas.
Maybe, just maybe, this group is really tired of the hypocrisy of the Republican Party that claims to be the party of God and yet demonstrates daily their hatred of anyone that doesn’t look or act just like them.
I wouldn’t count this group out this election. Too much is at stake for them.
You mean the polls MIGHT be wrong?
Gasp!
JR or I mean, Blue Jay, your credibility just shot it’s wad at 7:15 am.
No different then any other day for you though.
I’ll go with the historical record. The 18-25 voters will do a no show as usual. You can’t count on that group for anything.
It must be hard being a democrat. You appear to be sad or mad most of the time.
BlueJay
Posted November 2, 2008 at 7:15 am | Permalink
Remember 2000 and 2004?
I do.
NEVER underestimate the Republican ability to cheat and steal. They’re scum and they are slime and they will do anything to win.
————————————————-
Do you really believe that the other side won’t?
Face it,both sides are going to do anything and everything they can to win.
BlueJay
Posted November 2, 2008 at 7:15 am | Permalink
Remember 2000 and 2004?
I do.
NEVER underestimate the Republican ability to cheat and steal. They’re scum and they are slime and they will do anything to win.
————————————————-
This from a guy who steals and vandalizes campaign signs of opponents.
Good point Freebird. I forgot that JR bragged about stealing McCain signs.
And JR burned the American flag too.
He was even proud about that. Did it in front of his kid, as a “lesson”.
To some, this means something:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/first_flag.jpg
To others, they burn the flag out of ignorance OR disrespect.
This is the better know photo, but who knows the difference between the two photos?
http://teachpol.tcnj.edu/amer_pol_hist/fi/0000018f.jpg
omg…are you STILL whining about a ’stolen’ election after FOUR YEARS? Talk about someone needing a WHAMBULANCE.
Sheeesh…4 years of whining..and all that hatred and whining didn’t change the outcome. Give it up already….
Perhaps they do it to protest the country’s bad acts. That’s what makes america great, that they can speak freely. Even if we don’t agree with it.
Every American should be mad about what the last 8 years has brought.
JR did you steal yard signs?
Stealing signs is another way to protest I guess. That make America great too?
Or does flag burning make America great?
Burning cross?
Burning effigy?
Is that what you Libs are all about still?
I also will not breath easy until a winner is declared (hopefully, it will be Obama). That being said, most of the polling shortcomings would seem to favor Obama (cell phone only users and populations considered less likely to vote). I think the millenials are turning out for this election.
But, we will see. The Republicans did put out their best candidate for this particular election.
Heh, I love it!
Even when I’m not here I am.
Yes I have indeed removed or destroyed illegally placed yard signs. And yes I DID burn a flag with my son after the election of 2000 was stolen. But don’t forget…
I also ran a con canvasser out of my yard with a garden hose.
Political_mama
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:17 pm | Permalink
Every American should be mad about what the last 8 years has brought.
JR did you steal yard signs?
—————————————————
A couple of days ago he posted his “scorecard” of signs removed and signs destroyed.
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:32 pm | Permalink
Heh, I love it!
Even when I’m not here I am.
Yes I have indeed removed or destroyed illegally placed yard signs. And yes I DID burn a flag with my son after the election of 2000 was stolen. But don’t forget…
I also ran a con canvasser out of my yard with a garden hose.
————————————————-
What makes your actions any different from those you condemn?
Taking down illegally placed yard signs is not wrong.
Yes I have indeed removed or destroyed illegally placed yard signs
————————————————–
Oh, I see now they were illegally placed. Funny you didnt mention that before now.
I’m not able to disenfranchise a single vote “Freebird”.
The Republican party specializes in it.
Now go chew someone else’s ankle. Post a thought of your own instead of glomming onto mine.
BlueJay
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:37 pm | Permalink
I’m not able to disenfranchise a single vote “Freebird”.
The Republican party specializes in it.
Now go chew someone else’s ankle. Post a thought of your own instead of glomming onto mine.
————————————————-
My thought is you are a small minded little man who can’t answer a direct question.
You would disenfranchise “con” voters if you had the chance to make sure your side “won”
The sooner you realize that we are all in this together the sooner we get this country back on track.
Wake up little man!!!! The situation this country is in was brought about by both parties. It is your kind of thinking which is also displayed by the “cons” that will keep this country from improving.
I also will not breath easy until a winner is declared (hopefully, it will be Obama).
I will not breathe easier (not easy) until the Senator from Illinois safely walks into the Oval Office.
And, if you couldn’t have guessed, the surprisingly close race in Arizona decided me against any third-party vote this year. I’d love to defeat John in his own home state!
And, who knows, it might turn out to be necessary.
As you are a con, your opinion means less than nothing to me “Freebird”.
Well BJ, Being a moderate you calling me a con is laughable
You would disenfranchise “con” voters if you had the chance to make sure your side “won”
It appears your personal dislike of Jay and his worldview leads you to make statements that have no basis in fact.
I have no personal dislike of him,hell there are issues I agree with him on,such as abortion,gay marriage and the war on terror.
Last time the incumbent party kept the W.H. during a recession was in 1900 (Mckinnley) so, yea, there’s hope Mccain can pull it off!
sunflower5
Posted November 2, 2008 at 11:03 am | Permalink
It must be hard being a democrat. You appear to be sad or mad most of the time.
—
Have you missed the nasty, hate-filled and downright racist remarks coming from the McCain/Palin rallies?
How many times have you heard someone from the crowd yell ‘kill him’ at an Obama rally? How many times have you heard someone yell ‘terrorist’ at an Obama rally? How many times has Obama talke about the ‘communist part of the state’ when speaking at his rallies? How many times has Obama referred to those people who are true Americans and who are not true Americans?
Obama showed McCain respect at each debate and McCain called Obama ‘that one’.
You might want to look in the mirrow when you talk about being mad. As for being sad, I find it sad and pathetic that Republicans, and so-called Christian Conservative Republicans, stooping so low as to wallow in the outright lies and deceit that is going on in the McCain/Palin campaign rallies.
The American voters are tired of the division that Republicans have brought in the last 8 years and they are real tired of the hypocrisy shown every day by the Republicans.
The jawless fish wrote -
Agnatha
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:26 pm | Permalink
I also will not breath easy until a winner is declared
…no doubt experiencing the entirety of democracy’s weight on his chest…
The Article was about “could the polls be wrong”. I believe the answer is yes. Most people know that McCain would be right for America & Obama would be wrong. It is that simple.
“The jawless fish wrote -
Agnatha
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:26 pm | Permalink
‘I also will not breath easy until a winner is declared’
…no doubt experiencing the entirety of democracy’s weight on his chest…”
Re: Regular
DNFTT
“Most people know that McCain would be right for America & Obama would be wrong. It is that simple.”
I think it’s the other way around. It’s that simple.
So Obama really did say that he would bankrupt the coal industry. Unbelievable! When he gets around his San Francisco liberal friends, you see the real Obama.
Stop and think what that means. It means that the savior Obama thinks that it is the job of the President to decide what industries are worthy of survival. And which he should use the power of the presidency to bankrupt. As an American, it makes me ill. If he followed through, it would be reason to remove him from office.
I bet that comment plays as well in Pennsylvania as his gun and Bibles comment.
Freebird1971
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:37 pm | Permalink
Yes I have indeed removed or destroyed illegally placed yard signs
————————————————–
Oh, I see now they were illegally placed. Funny you didnt mention that before now.
—————————————————————
He didn’t mention they were illegal before:
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/11/local-candidates-should-beware-of-youtube-too/#comment-460679
Posted November 1, 2008 at 11:20 am | Permalink
Con signs removed 13
DIP (destroyed in place) 27
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/10/open-thread-1031/#comment-460378
Posted October 31, 2008 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
I was gonna go wreak Halloween havoc on Palin or McCain signs.
But I’ve only ever seen two and I got both of them already.
If signs are placed in someone’s yard, how does the person stealing the signs know they were placed there illegally?
A yard is private property and it is a misdemeanor to trespass and and another to remove the sign, yet another for criminal mischief.
Heh
I got ANOTHER one less than an hour ago. But this one just says “Sarah!” so probably nobody knew who it was for anyway.
Is anyone suprised that BJ is a thief?
#
JimJohnson
Posted November 2, 2008 at 8:42 pm | Permalink
Is anyone suprised that BJ is a thief?
——————-
Junior probably shoplifts as well – you know to provide ‘equal and fair’ redistribution amongst the masses.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s
Wise words from one of the Founders of our Republic seem most appropriate in this dire hour …
All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.
Thomas Jefferson
I own that I am not a friend to a very energetic government. It is always oppressive.
Thomas Jefferson
My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.
Thomas Jefferson
A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.
Thomas Jefferson
Our country is now taking so steady a course as to show by what road it will pass to destruction, to wit: by consolidation of power first, and then corruption, its necessary consequence.
Thomas Jefferson
The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground.
Thomas Jefferson
The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.
Thomas Jefferson
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
“Regular
Posted November 2, 2008 at 8:38 pm | Permalink
If signs are placed in someone’s yard, how does the person stealing the signs know they were placed there illegally?
A yard is private property and it is a misdemeanor to trespass and and another to remove the sign, yet another for criminal mischief.”
I agree. And I wish I could have caught the Karl Peterjohn Republican supporter who trashed my Marcey Gregory sign.
Yeah, the polls might be wrong. Let’s see; there are still a few mental defectives left who believe Bush is the second coming of Jesus, and a couple of hermits who missed the last four years of public ass-kissing of Bushco and various televangelists by McCane to win the neo-con and fundie endorsements and think he really is a maverick, and some moldy Klan members left over from the 1950’s who would secede from the union if a black guy got elected, along with the millionaires who made a killing on Bush’s war. If adds up to 43% of the electorate that the pollsters say support the ‘publicans after 8 years of disaster piled on disaster, it truly insults the intelligence of the American public. My hope would be that an Obama landslide of better than 70% ought to be possible in an honest election.
“I’d love to defeat John in his own home state!”
If we could do the same to Pat Roberts in his, we’ll fly ya back for the victory party, Rage.
I fear I will be not be spending my money for your travel this year.
Polls…I work from home, I have a ground line, and I’ve NEVER been called on a poll. I feel so left out…
If called I’d probably claim I’m undecided. In truth, I’ve already voted. For Obama. And contrary to the pollsters representation: I regularly attend and am actively involved in my church.(I’m a Christian -Disiples of Christ-. But I also have personal friends who are devoutly Jewish and Muslim.) I also own multiple (Marlin, Ruger, and Winchester pre 64)firearms and I’m not worried about them being taken away. (except by thiefs desperate to turn them into quick cash – hence a solid anchored safe) I’m a Kansas native whose great great grandparents came here in 1856 as abolitionists. I would characterize myself as a fiscal conservative and I am pro-life. But I also think I have a good sence of “the big picture.” I am a former Republican Precinct “Committeeman. I was honored in 2000 and again in 2004 to meet and campaign for John McCain. But the republican party, particularly in Kansas, has become an extreme and divisive instrument. And John has sold out: he is a hollow shell of his former self.
I voted a more Democratic ticket last week than I have ever voted since 1972. And I’m proud of my choices. I pray to God that Obama wins. Look, I certainly don’t agree with him on everything. And I have no doubt that he will screw something up somewhere sometime. He is human.
My greatest dread however is not about HIS shortcommings, but OURS: and the vengefull hostility I see from folks through-out this nation, folks whom in many instances I have long known as good loving and conscientious neighbors.
Whoever wins, we need to come together behind our new president. The votes will have been counted, but our real work will have just begun.
I sincerely believe that Barack Obama has the leadership and intellegence and forward thinking “vision” to restore this nation, and all of this nation, to a sound footing domestically as well as internationally.
Get out the vote!
“for every 100 households called, 75 to 80 refuse to be polled or don’t answer their phones.”
Yup. Or, even more fun with pollsters: Lie. Every time. I’d like very much to see the end of polling. Of course, I’d also like to see bars on “exit polling,” and no results announced from any jurisdiction until every jurisdiction has closed it’s polls; if that means the good folks of New York will have to wait for results until after Hawaii has voted – too damn bad.
I’m tired of allegations of stolen elections and tin-hat conspracy theories about Diebold. Bring back paper ballots. Marked with a pencil or pen, and optically scanned. It gives us the speed of results we seem to demand (God knows why) and if there is a discrepency, there is a paper record to go back to for double checking.
No matter who wins, central to the legitimacy of the winner is a faith in the accuracy of the vote. While I do not believe that there is a dark conspiracy in the halls of Diebold to “steal” an election (same is the hallmark of the same tin-hat folks who are 9//11 “truthers,” who talk endlessly about the “magic bullet” and insist that the moon landing was fabricated), perception is vital here. If there is that perception, get rid of the electronic machines, and go to paper ballots – a record.
That said . . . .
I see Capn and JR already have the “stolen election” conspiracy fantasy up and running . . .
Oh, and BJ stealing signs? Why am I not a bit surprised. That’s nothing more than the usual self-rightous “end justifies the means” stance taken to its logical result. BTW, JR: There’s a word for “taking a water hose to a canvasser.” It’s called “battery,” and it’s a crime. KSA 21-3412. Be thankful the canvasser wasn’t as narrow and petty as yourself, or you could have been facing charges.
Political_mama
Posted November 2, 2008 at 12:15 pm | Permalink
“Perhaps they do it to protest the country’s bad acts. That’s what makes america great, that they can speak freely. Even if we don’t agree with it.”
Perhaps you have defended the KKK as well as Fred Phelps having their say as well?
Ooops. That should be “JR” stealing signs.
BJ is his “nic-switcher” nic. I’ll stick with the tried and true, and wholly appropriate, JR.
Why the polls might be wrong? In addition to the reasons given in the header, other possible explanations include, but are not limited to, a bad sample (size, make up); respondents to polling not being truthful; bad algorithms designed to address perceived insufficiencies in the make up or size of the sample, untruthful responses, etc.
I don;t believe that the polls are wrong, but I would laugh my ass off if they were. Then I would probably cry, because my guess is there will be riots in the streets if THE ONE is is not elected President.
Vote for NONE OF THE ABOVE or your favorite third party candidate tomorrow.
I don;t believe that the polls are wrong, but I would laugh my ass off if they were. Then I would probably cry, because my guess is there will be riots in the streets if THE ONE is is not elected President.
Vote for NONE OF THE ABOVE or your favorite third party candidate tomorrow.
They’re expecting up to a mil. at Obama rally tomorrow in Chicago. If it were stolen, you’ll see Chicago burning. Then the statements that Iraq is safer than Chicago would hold water!
Too many polls in agreement for the majority to be wrong. Bad polling won’t sell this time.
Weather can be a major factor. All too often voters on the ‘left’ don’t vote if it is too inconvenient – especially foul weather. What I have read is that most of the country should have good weather tomorrow.
Advance voting also will have an impact on that – a lot of hourly workers were able to vote early and won’t have to take a half-day off to vote tomorrow.
Phantom
Posted November 3, 2008 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
They’re expecting up to a mil. at Obama rally tomorrow in Chicago. If it were stolen, you’ll see Chicago burning…
————————–
Yeah, there’s a statement…
Burn the place down where you live in protest.
(coughs)
It’d make the convention look like a cake walk.
If there’s 8 to 10 hr. waits (in certain districts), Repubs. might win those cities.
Weather can be a major factor. All too often voters on the ‘left’ don’t vote if it is too inconvenient – especially foul weather.
What does being left-handed have to do with showing up at the polls?
#
Phantom
Posted November 3, 2008 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
They’re expecting up to a mil. at Obama rally tomorrow in Chicago. If it were stolen, you’ll see Chicago burning. Then the statements that Iraq is safer than Chicago would hold water!
———–
So what you are saying is that an Obama loss = stolen election.
Irresponsible. Inflammatory. Just plain dumb.
So what you are saying is that an Obama loss = stolen election.
Actually, I think Phantom is saying a stolen election = stolen election.