It took a while for the full impact of the 2nd Congressional District primary to sink in — a moderate beat a high-profile conservative in a GOP primary in August. That’s not supposed to happen in Kansas. That may be one reason a RealClearPolitics blog called state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins’ defeat of former Rep. Jim Ryun “perhaps the upset of the night,” also noting Jenkins’ disadvantage in cash and name recognition. Now Jenkins would seem to have a real shot over Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Topeka. The blog observes that Boyda “has a record close to the middle of the House, but in a Republican district based around the state capital in Topeka in a presidential year, the freshman Democrat is going to have real trouble holding on to her seat, and national Republicans see it as one of their top targets.”
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56 Comments
Boyda will be an easy win for Jenkins.
Way to go Lynn Jenkins!!!!!
Hay here is con shill Rhonda in the grand old Ronald Reagan exercise.
She is trying to find the pony in the room full of horse hockey.
The REAL story here is the loss of con kook Jim Ryun.
That’s a defeat for the fundy right and proof that it is the cons who are forced to track left.
This news isn’t as good as when we see the headline that tankerless todd is sent packing! That will be a day for celebration!
Chuckle…From what I can tell, Republican Jenkins is pretty certain to replace Democrat Boyda in the House. So the Dems will lose one of the few inroads they have made in this red state.
Found that pony yet BlueJay?
Hey Remil!
Isn’t James Ryan your namesake? You should be for him, leading the charge. :)
I agree with outlander – Jenkens will likely win. A MODERATE Republican in a general election will pick up the swing votes that made the difference two years ago when Ryan was turned out.
linda – I wish I were as confident as you that Tankerless Todd was on his way out. My guess is he will be re-elected but will be marginalized in Congress.
Jenkins, on the other hand, could be interesting in DC. As a moderate she might be one to work ‘both sides’ in horse-trading and could therefore be good for her district.
As a cross over, I was just as upset by the republicans lack of conservatism as anyone in the last election. I had told Jim Ryun this in a letter. He never changed ways. Then, I heard Nancy campaign on the do nothing republicans and how they didn’t pass the appropriation acts on time, how the evil republicans were passing pork, how the evil republicans were deficit spending. And then I met her and her former Marine husband – and that sealed the deal. I did not vote a one party ticket. I voted out those I had trusted.
Unfortunately, and this is being honest – not PARTY POLITIC’S: Nancy has not kept ONE of her campaign promises – which were to NOT do what the evil Republicans had done. Nancy voted to increase deficit spending, for the war, and was part of a congress that failed to pass the appropriation acts until the end of December.
So guess what: Nancy Boyda is gone! I’ll keep searching, regardless of political party, until we get representatives who walk the talk.
Here is how Nancy ranks as far as Pork spending:
Name Rank Amt # earmarks
Rep. Boyda (D-KS 2nd) 43 $38,032,000 49
Rep. Moore (D-KS 3rd) 212 $ 7,360,000 24
Rep. Moran (R-KS 1st) 281 $ 8,022,600 19
“That’s a defeat for the fundy right and proof that it is the cons who are forced to track left.”
BJ, there is some merit in what you posted above, but your analysis is only one tack on the results.
There are those pure conservatives, who feel Ryun let us down and never proved himself capable of returning to our values.
It is not necessarily a defeat of what you call a “Fundy” right, but possibly that the candidate did not FULFILL the expectations of the “Fundy” right.
I will agree, our choices are now limited and we can only hope Jenkins does NOT track too far left.
“linda – I wish I were as confident as you that Tankerless Todd was on his way out. My guess is he will be re-elected but will be marginalized in Congress.”
—–
Ben, I agree with you! But I will take progress and HOPE for more and better in the future. These old coots can’t last forever. Getting away from the worst of the worst will happen, probably more gradually than I would like, but I’ll just concentrate on the inroads that will take us there!
AmWay–
14 million dollars. How many minutes does that buy us in Iraq?
As far as Boyda goes, the Republicans can have her.
She wants to be a moderate Republican, let her lose to a moderate Republican.
“Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican every time.” Harry S Truman
Boyda’s not smart enough to be nervous. Like I said, stick a fork in her. She’s done.
…and did I mention that Betts needs to get off his ass and start campaigning? It’s never too early to work toward a win. It isnt going to fall into his lap.
Does the KDP just WANT to lose?
“14 million dollars. How many minutes does that buy us in Iraq?”
Capn the comments on the cost of Iraq, everytime someone brings up deficit spending, the national debt, and spending in general is getting old. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
The rest of your post is right on.
“That may be one reason a RealClearPolitics blog called state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins’ defeat of former Rep. Jim Ryun ‘perhaps the upset of the night,’ also noting Jenkins’ disadvantage in cash and name recognition.”
And some pundits still haven’t learned the lessons of Kansas. The point is, Ryun lost largely because of his name recognition.
The Christian Right is a losing proposition in Kansas this year as it was in 2006, particularly in the 2nd District which includes two Division 1 university cities. The problem for the Democrats is, the moderates came out and voted in the primary, so they can’t count on the foul weather voter swing that can unseat far right candidates in the fall.
American way, you forgot Tiahrt, he is the worst of all when it comes to pork. Why isn’t he ranked?
“Does the KDP just WANT to lose?”
I don’t know. I swear that the democrats (whether the state or the national party) still don’t seem to know where they have an advantage in this state. Tiahrt has a very consistent core of support, but he also has wide negatives (largely due to his core of support), but I swear the Democrats fail to really see his vulnerabilities. If Betts were to run HARD, he would have a chance. But you are right, time’s awastin’.
Here is a more complete list:
Name Rank Amt # earmarks
Rep. Boyda (D-KS 2nd) 43 $38,032,000 49
Rep. Moore (D-KS 3rd) 212 $ 7,360,000 24
Rep. Moran (R-KS 1st) 281 $ 8,022,600 19
Rep. Tiahrt(R-KS 4th) 19 $66,804,000 60
Sen. Brownback(R-KS) 69 $87,133,151 79
Sen. Roberts(R-KS) 83 $53,627,600 47
And a source to the Power Ranking of our politcalburo:
http://www.congress.org/congressorg/power_rankings/power_cats.tt?cat=E&submit.x=9&submit.y=7
Lots of “experts” on Republican politics here, who don’t really know that many Republicans.
Kansas is a VERY diverse state.
The 2nd District is probably the most diverse district. The 2nd IS home to two college towns, and Lawrence is the MOST liberal city in the state.
If you looked at the rest of the 2nd district, the Southern portion is heavily Mennonite.
The fact that Junction City, a heavy military presence, exists on the NW border is watered down by the fact that many of those military people do not live in the district, or they have maintained voting rights in their home states.
I spent the week doing lots of driving in the 2nd District.
Boyda is running pro-petroleum advertising. (Good for her!)
The “death” of conservatism has been predicted in EVERY single political race since Goldwater.
Conservatism will never die.
Issues are what really matter, and on the issues, Conservatives will do just fine.
Some of the Republican “split” goes clear back to when the Republican Chairman, David Miller, ran against Bill Graves. That was a huge mistake. I told Miller, at the time, that it was dangerous. We went from having “moderates” willing to deal with conservatives, on many legislative issues, to having moderates who could not trust the Conservative party leadership anymore.
Yes, Graves constantly took shots at various Conservatives, publicly. Yes, Graves deserved a primary challenge.
Steve Abrams DID file, in the primary.
The Conservative “establishment” asked Abrams to back out. This made for a “split” in the Conservative movement that still has not healed.
A bitter Conservative base then had to apologize for “letting” Miller run, and for “forcing” Abrams out. It was a disaster.
No, Abrams might not have been able to defeat Graves. But, it would have looked more “ethical” more “unified” and been respected, within the Party, if that had been allowed by our “wiser” leaders.
My official duties, in the State Party, ended in large measure due to my speaking my mind on this matter.
Today? Today political leadership in the Party has emproved greatly. I think we have learned from our mistakes.
I fully expect that Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts and Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran will give Jenkins a great deal of support.
In fairness, I will have to say that Pat Roberts ALWAYS warned conservatives not to rub the moderates noses in our disagreements.
Jenkins will get the conservative vote.
Boyda will try hard to sound like a conservative.
Jenkins will win.
Actually, there are several college towns in the District, but you know what I meant.
Manhattan and Lawrence have more lib voters than most cities.
And, I would say the middle of the district is heavily Mennonite, while the Southern section still has heavy coal miner, union roots.
Topeka
Lots of government workers, tend to be Dems.
Lansing and Levenworth, lots of government workers, tend to be Dems.
O.K., so jenkins teeth are perfect, and she’s only had one or two face lifts, bitch.
beber
What is wrong with you?
Why do you trash the Blog with negative references to people, insults which have nothing to do with honor, qualifications, skill, or issues?
It isn’t funny.
It isn’t fun to read.
It only reflects poorly on you.
Paul, freaking pay attention will you. Even the lib dems are pulling for Jenkins. Don’t pretend that you love her, you were pulling for values boy #1.
pmom
Yes,
But Jenkins WILL have the conservative vote.
Ryan would have trouble getting the moderate vote.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
For conservatives?
Our support of Jenkins is an opportunity to heal some old wounds.
And, we will take advantage of that opportunity.
We will be unified.
pmom
Pelosi has recruited enough conservative Democrats that I feel perfectly safe supporting a moderate Republican.
On issues, my side wins!
Franklin
Posted August 8, 2008 at 10:33 am
“Lansing and Levenworth, lots of government workers, tend to be Dems.”
Sorry to burst your bubble Franklin, but having spent a day or two in Leavenworth, I can agree Lots of “experts” on Republican politics here, who don’t really know that many Republicans.
Leavenworth does NOT tend to be Dems!
Below is just a partial list, but obviously you are also no expert:
Bush/Cheney (Republican): 2000 & 2004
Bob Dole in 1996 with 10778 votes over Dr Gore with only 9,098 votes
Leans republican:
Donations by political party 2007-2008:
To Democrats: $30,375 To Republican Candidates: $50,081 62%
Donations this presidential cycle:
$85,340 McCain, John
$40,862 Obama, Barack
$2,300 Barr, Bob
Jim Ryun beat Boyda 2291 to 1519
For Secretary of State the republican Thornburgh beat Beattie 1621 to 469
Registered voters in Leavenworth County 2006
12,171 democrats to 15,506 republicans
Leavenworth voted for the republican Phil Kline for AG (not me)
Leavenworth supported republican Lynn Jenkins 2,214 to 1,466 in 2006
Leavenworth supported republican Donohoe for Kansas House
Leavenworth supported the republican on the State Board of Education 1178 to 533
Leavenworth supported Brownback in 2004 16,729 to only 8,977 for the democrat.
http://www.opensecrets.org/states/geog.php?cycle=2008&state=KS
I can expound upon this list if needed.
Your expertise forgot the large number of military and retired military in the community. That may/may not what put the republicans on top, but from my own experience with this community, I think it is a big factor.
This has been a public service announcment just to clear the air and let the truth reign.
Leavenworth does not tend to be lib..
I did not say that Leavenworth was MAJORITY dem, I said that there are LOTS Of Dems, — more than you would expect.
All I’m saying Franklin, if there was ever a hatchet-faced bitch, it’s jenkins. An don’t ever call me out on substance, considering the millions of yards of verbage your side has posted regarding Hillary’s thighs. I’m just saying I know a bitch when I see one.
And, Dole in his OWN HOME STATE should have burried any Democrat, in every county.
The assumption is that every county in Kansas is the same.
I am making the point that some counties are far more Republican than others, and that some counties are actually Democrat or Democrat leaning.
And, American, you probably already noticed your mistake, but you might want to say this another way:
“Bob Dole in 1996 with 10778 votes over Dr Gore with only 9,098 votes”
I am NOT insulting Leavenworth County!
I am making the case that there is a living, breathing Democrat Party in more counties than just Douglas, Shawnee and down in the “Balkans”!!!
American Way
Put another way:
Democrats, nationally, and the Eagle, locally, are making the case that there is some huge “sea change” perhaps, in Kansas.
I think that Kansas politics are often over-simplified, by many people.
In fact, any analysis that does not consume several pages, with a bunch of footnotes, would be an over simplification.
It goes without saying that posts on a Blog are ALWAYS oversimplified.
I get your points.
I agree with your points.
Lighten up, ok?
“Lansing and Levenworth, lots of government workers, tend to be Dems.”
Did you post the above Franklin or is someone ELSE using your nic?
Leavenworth does NOT “TEND” to be democrat.
You might be making your case, but base it upon truth, wouldja?
If your point is that there is a living breathing democratic party in more counties, other than the two which voted democrat in the last election, the blue people coming up short in Kansas.
Now, you have a regular lovefest nest egg of em down in Wichita and surrounds who live on this blog, but despite their dreams – they are a real minority in the great state of Kansas.
Don’t go giving them heads bigger than they already are. They are massed on the blog, but out on the plains, they are few and far between.
the thing is, boyda is not one of us.
Jenkins was born, raised, and has served HERE IN KANSAS.
Boyda is from St. Louis.
and every time someone questions Boyda, she looks like she’s going to lash out. I’m supporting Jenkins.
PS: An easy way to find the libs is to use the US Census Bureau and look up numbers of people on subsistence from the Federal government (wealthfare, foodstamps, subsidized housing).
Whereever the handouts to individuals are greatest, you will find the darkest blue areas.
This tends to hold true in Kansas too. Just add college assistance to the search and WALAA! You add the college towns.
Another way to find the blues: Look up crime stats. Whereever crime is highest, you will find lots of blue people.
“tend to be dems” means that the government workers tend to be dems.
“Workers” agrees with “dems”.
IF I had said:
Leavenworth, lots of government workers, tends to be dems” (notice the tends instead of tend) then “tends” would agree with Leavenworth.
Government workers TEND to be Democrats. That is the only point I was trying to make.
Sorry if I offended you. I like Leavenworth County, I was there YESTERDAY!
Is that lightened up enough?
Yes
I think we are on the same side, much of the time.
I was not trying to pick a fight.
In fact, I am upset at the simplistic “analysis” that we often see in the media.
It was not my intent to be simplistic, myself.
We want to make things as simple as possible.
But no simpler.
Well
As Republicans, at least we don’t have to get out the crayons, like our Democrat “friends” have to do.
(Hey, they just called us “stupid” in the newest thread)
While there are a lot of really really conservative people in Leavenworth County, I still carried it when I ran against Bill Graves in 1990.
BTW, I have stated before my dissatisfaction with the republican party. I am not a die-hard republican. I voted for two democrats in the last election. I may vote for some more in the next. I am closer to a conservative with strong libertarian leanings.
I have posted this historically many times on these pages. The republicans lost me when they gave up the basics of being conservative AND went on a holy roller crusade. Not to mention their double-talk on illegal immigration, earmarks, and their avarice spending spree.
In short, republicans form of social corporate welfare has proven just as bad for the economy and American life as the democrats welfare to the poor.
If I don’t see “change” within the party back to the straight and narrow – I’ll be strictly independent forever. Or if the socialist revamp America, I’ll be a rebel.
“Whereever the handouts to individuals are greatest, you will find the darkest blue areas.” —
Right Am Way. Urban areas, where the people live, so of course more will be getting help.
Is not one of us? What is this, second grade?
Paul your side isn’t winning. The neocons are losing bigtime. We’ve seen how your policies work, and they are disasterous.
pmom
Liberalism is not winning.
Obama SHOULD be ahead by about 12 points, right now.
That is where most Dems have been, in August.
How many books has Pelosi been able to sell?
Anti Obama books are selling big time.
Repub. pundits say “Obama can’t close the deal”, well guess what, he can’t close the deal. At least not until November. Look for the 11 point lead after the convention.
AMway, it comes down to who would you rather see get the gov. welfare the Rich or the poor, and middle class.
“The point is, Ryun lost largely because of his name recognition.”
Much like Phill Kline losing to whats-his-name.
Faced with 2 pro-abortion candidates, pro-lifers may seek a third-party candidate.
I expect you and all you illegal-abortion advocates would be voting a straight Democratic ticket now that we’ve learned from today’s most important Republic Party issue, that no abortion resulted from “John Edwards and his sex affair with that other woman.”
parkay
Posted August 8, 2008 at 4:11 pm | Permalink
Faced with 2 pro-abortion candidates, pro-lifers may seek a third-party candidate.
I hpe you are right. Maybe YOU should run!
:)
Parkay
Running a 3rd Party candidate is almost always a bad idea.
In this particular case?
It would be very, very stupid.
Leadership is important, not letting the Dems increase there majority this year is important.
I can not speak for Jenkins, but she might be lukewarm on some social issues.
We don’t have a chance with Boyda.
My advice is, almost always, “In the General Elections, work hard for candidates that you can support, and simply with hold your support from Republicans that you can not support” —
If we want the “moderates” to support conservative candidates, that is the way we must lead.
Besides, there IS something in it for us:
We DO want a Republican MAJORITY again, some day, don’t we?
I look forward to the next post!