From Physics & Society: July 2008, Volume 37, Number 3
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably caused more than half of the “global warming” of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid warming. However, global mean surface temperature has not risen since 1998 and may have fallen since late 2001. The present analysis suggests that the failure of the IPCC’s models to predict this and many other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its evaluation of the three factors whose product is climate sensitivity:
1. Radiative forcing deltaF;
2. The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter kappa and
3. The feedback multiplier f
Some reasons why the IPCC’s estimates may be excessive and unsafe are explained. More importantly, the conclusion is that, perhaps, there is no “climate crisis”, and that currently-fashionable efforts by governments to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions are pointless, may be ill-conceived, and could even be harmful.
Don’t laugh: Global warming is going to increase kidney stones
The “reasoning” below is that kidney stones are more prevalent in warmer areas of the USA and that they are therefore caused by warmth. That’s just epidemiological speculation, however. People in some warmer parts of the USA do get more kidney stones but is that BECAUSE OF the warmth? Bacteria are being increasingly implicated in kidney stone formation so it could (for instance) be due to differing prevalence of bacteria in the areas concerned. Note also that kidney stone prevalence is high in the Great Lakes area, which is not exactly the warmest part of the USA
More Americans are likely to suffer from kidney stones in the coming years as a result of global warming, according to researchers at the University of Texas.
Kidney stones, which are formed from dissolved minerals in the urine and can be extremely painful, are often caused by caused by dehydration, either by not drinking enough liquid or losing too much due to high heat conditions. If global warming trends continue as projected by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the United States can expect as much as a 30 percent growth in kidney stone disease in some of its driest areas, said the findings published in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The increased incidence of disease would represent between 1.6 million and 2.2 million cases by 2050, costing the US economy as much as one billion dollars in treatment costs.
“This study is one of the first examples of global warming causing a direct medical consequence for humans,” said Margaret Pearle, professor of urology at University of Texas Southwestern and senior author of the paper. “When people relocate from areas of moderate temperature to areas with warmer climates, a rapid increase in stone risk has been observed. This has been shown in military deployments to the Middle East for instance.”
The lead author of the research, Tom Brikowski, compared kidney stone rates with UN forecasts of temperature increases and created two mathematical models to predict the impact on future populations. One formula showed an increase in the southern half of the country, including the already existing “kidney stone belt” of the southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
The other showed that the increase would be concentrated in the upper Midwest. “Similar climate-related changes in the prevalence of kidney-stone disease can be expected in other stone belts worldwide,” the study said.
We had anthropogenic CO2 emissions to lead us through and to be honest it was very boring. This was definately the prevalence in the failure so far. We went inside and saw professor, which was most impressive.
Banks are businesses. Run a business poorly and it fails. Run a bank poorly and it fails.
I use my banks to transfer assets, not keep them. If my bank fails I’ll use a different one. No problem.
California banks are in trouble because the real estate bubble is collapsing. People ask why the real estate prices are falling. The question should be how they got so inflated in the first place.
Good morning Regular! We need to do lunch some day. I’ll invite the boy and we’ll tell Mr Rimel so he can do drivebys!
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Hey Hank!
Mornin’ back at ya.
“The question should be how they got so inflated in the first place.”
Your answer to that question would be??? This should be good.
There is no reason to be concerned that there are now runs on banks? The 1930’s were a good period of U.S. history? Further deregulation will get us out of these problems, how, exactly?
It is a good thing that U.S. voters will see fit to soon take the reins of power away from ideologues who got us into to this mess in the first place.
Rove at Fox News - no problem, no conflicts of interest, there. You guys are just too much:
The same elite, not 19 arabs based in a cave, who brought us 9-11-01 are also bringing us economic warfare in which to bring about the engineered coming depression. This will have us beg for mercy and mercy WILL BE THE North American Union. Laugh all you want or get yourselves and families prepared.
I promise not to be a pest about this subject on these pages, but: Via the website Kansas Cyclist, I found this story http://www.hutchnews.com/Todaystop/bikes2008-07-08T20-59-02
in the Hutchinson paper about the increase in bike sales that dealers there have experienced. I’ve not run across similar stories in the Eagle, but the irony of the Hutch story is that it includes a brief interview with Byron Flick, the owner of Heartland Bicycles here in town.
I’ve recently begun using a bike as my primary mode of transportation, and though one person does not a trend make, I’ve noticed more folks on bikes of late–and not just here in the Riverside area. There’s also the curiosity that, as I posted about in my cycling blog here
Wichita ranks 3rd from the bottom among the 50 largest U.S. cities in terms of the percentage of people who cycle to work. So anyway, I’m just wondering aloud, and in the direction of the Eagle staff, whether the local paper has plans to report on cycling and cyclists. Given the rise in gas prices, environmental concerns, obvious health benefits, and whether and to what extent the city should encourage cycling as a practical mode of transportation, it would seem to me that stories on such issues would be of interest to many readers.
Liberal Democrats: Freedom of Speech Unless it’s against Obama
Some bloggers opposed to Barack Obama say they suspect Obama’s supporters — with the assistance of Google — may have tried to censor them when the Internet giant froze their Web sites for five days last month.
Seven blogs run by Democrats who oppose Obama’s nomination for the presidency were incorrectly flagged as spam sites by Blogger, the hosting service Google has owned since 2003. Google says it was an automated response from a spam filter.
When I read about the GW / kidney stone news I hoped it would be included in the daily feud. Glad you found and posted that Hank. Wouldn’t want to leave out any of the important details since y’all are so close to getting the whole problem sorted out!
Maybe this will finally be the good news out of Wichita — WE Bloggers not only got to the root of the GW controversy, but solved other world problems with ease! It has been proven there are more know-it-alls in Wichita, Kansas, than any other place in the world!
Won’t we all be proud when they finally take note and listen to us.
Pmom if contacting GMC is in regards to your friends problem with the Eldorado PD your probably better off talking to the District Attorney or even the Attorney General.
More from the Kidney Stone Department of Pulling Numbers Completely Out of Your Ass:
“The increased incidence of disease would represent between 1.6 million and 2.2 million cases by 2050, costing the US economy as much as one billion dollars in treatment costs.”
the reason she’s laughing is because non of the cons say a word about when Phelps is protesting a gay person’s funeral. The cons perpetuate this ‘us against them’ belief for the GLBT communities.
non of the cons say a word about when Phelps is protesting a gay person’s funeral.
Bullsh*%. NEVER, NEVER, has anyone here defended the foul behavior of Phelps band of idiots. KFG goes out of her way to attempt to tar anyone she disagrees with with the broad brush of Phelps; it’s wrong, of course, and she knows it, but also knows that intimating the association fouls anyone she can associatiate with that band of lunatics.
But NO ONE - I say again - NO ONE has ever defended these people. Some, on both “sides,” have defended his right to speak, but NO ONE has EVER defended his position.
Committee says fuzzy memories hurt Tillman probe
By SCOTT LINDLAW
SAN FRANCISCO - A “striking lack of recollection” by White House and military officials prevented congressional investigators from determining who was responsible for misinformation spread after the friendly fire death of Army Ranger Pat Tillman, a House committee said Monday.
Although military investigators determined within days that the onetime NFL player was killed by his own troops in Afghanistan following an enemy ambush, five weeks passed before the circumstances of his death were made public. During that time, the Army claimed Tillman was killed by enemy fire.
Rep. Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, said in April 2007 that his goal was to discern the genesis of the misinformation. “Was it the result of incompetence, miscommunication or a deliberate strategy?” he said.
The panel acknowledged Monday it had fallen short of this goal. The committee received a flurry of White House e-mails sent as the Bush administration responded to Tillman’s death, but no documents about friendly fire. The committee interviewed several top White House officials about the case, but “not a single one could recall when he learned about the fratricide or what he did in response,” it said in its 48-page report.
The committee reported a similar lack of information relating to misinformation surrounding Pvt. Jessica Lynch, who was rescued from an Iraqi hospital after she was badly injured and captured in a 2003 ambush. The committee examined how the story of the ambush of her convoy was changed into a tale of heroism on her part.
“As the committee investigated the Tillman and Lynch cases, it encountered a striking lack of recollection,” the report said.
The panel concluded that the lack of information “makes it impossible for the committee to assign responsibility for the misinformation in Corporal Tillman’s and Private Lynch’s cases.”
Jim Wilkinson, a onetime White House official who was communications director for U.S. Central Command, told the committee he did not know where the false information on Lynch originated, or who disseminated it.
In the case of Tillman’s April 22, 2004, death, White House officials generated nearly 200 e-mails on the matter the day after, the committee found. Politics seemed to fuel the administration’s interest: Several of the e-mails came from the staff of President Bush’s re-election campaign, urging Bush to respond publicly.
The White House “rushed” to release a public statement of condolence at about noon on April 23.
But in doing so, the White House violated a military policy enacted into law by Bush himself in 2003, the committee found. The Military Family Peace of Mind Act bars the announcement of a casualty until 24 hours after a family is notified.
The Defense Department, adhering to the policy, had not yet publicly confirmed Tillman’s death when the White House released Bush’s statement of condolence.
Realizing this belatedly, White House spokewoman Claire Buchan warned her colleagues in an e-mail: “alert - do not use Tillman statement.” But news services were already running the White House statement.
The White House also failed to determine whether information about Tillman’s death was classified, the committee found. Tillman’s Ranger unit was routinely involved in sensitive operations along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Then-White House communications director Dan Bartlett told the committee he had approved release of the president’s statement because of intense news media interest.
The committee cited one exchange between White House political chief Karl Rove and Ron Fournier, then a political reporter for The Associated Press.
In a chain under the subject line “H-E-R-O,” Rove replied to an e-mail from Fournier by saying, “How does our country continue to produce men and women like this?”
Fournier replied, “The Lord creates men and women like this all over the world. But only the great and free countries allow them to flourish. Keep up the fight.”
Fournier, now the AP’s acting Washington bureau chief, said Monday: “I was an AP political reporter at the time of the 2004 e-mail exchange, and was interacting with a source, a top aide to the president, in the course of following an important and compelling story. I regret the breezy nature of the correspondence.”
The story of Tillman, a man who gave up a lucrative career in professional sports to serve in the Army, “made the American people feel good about our country … and our military,” Bartlett told the committee. But he acknowledged the statement might “set a precedent.”
Another frenzy of White House activity took place, well out of public view, in the days leading up to a Bush speech on Tillman to the annual White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, the committee found.
While Bush and other presidents have often delivered humorous remarks to the gathering, Bush had “got singed pretty bad” the previous year for making what some critics perceived as inappropriate joking remarks during wartime, Bartlett said. So the White House made a deliberate decision to “pay tribute to the troops,” and made Tillman’s death the week before the centerpiece, he said.
Speechwriters and fact-checkers expended hundreds of words in e-mail memos trying to confirm that Tillman and his brother Kevin had joined the Army because of the attacks of Sept. 11, but could not do so, because the brothers had rarely or never spoken publicly about it.
Nevertheless, Bush’s remarks to the correspondents’ association contained what one White House official admitted was a “speculative” statement by Bush: “Friends say that this young man saw the images of September the 11th, and seeing that evil, he felt called to defend America.”
White House spokesman Trey Bohn said Monday that officials there cooperated extensively with the committee during its investigation.
“The report contains no evidence that the White House said anything incorrect or misleading regarding the death of Corporal Tillman,” Bohn said. “Our thoughts and prayers remain with the Tillman family.”
The authors of the new report carefully avoided assigning blame or intent in either the Tillman or Lynch cases. But, they concluded: “In both cases, affirmative acts created new facts that were significantly different than what the soldiers in the field knew to be true. And in both cases, the fictional accounts proved to be compelling public narratives at difficult times in the war.”
The committee also looked into the case of Army Spc. Jesse Buryj of Canton, Ohio. It took nine months for his family to learn that his death in Iraq in May 2004 was not the result of an accidental vehicle crash as they were first told. He was killed by fire from U.S. or Polish soldiers in Karbala after a dump truck hurtled through a checkpoint and crashed into the armored vehicle in which he was riding.
Buryj’s parents accepted an invitation to meet Bush at a July 2004 campaign rally. They told investigators they had pressed Bush to help them find answers about their son’s death, and said Bush agreed to help.
“A few months later, a Bush-Cheney campaign official contacted the family,” the congressional investigators found. “Rather than offer assistance, the official asked Specialist Buryj’s mother to appear in a campaign commercial for the president. Mrs. Buryj refused.”
“We haven’t seen forgetfulness like this since Nixon!”
I think we could nominate some people much later that him. Maybe like this:
“I do not recall.” “I have no specific memory of that conversation.” “As I told the grand jury.”
Clinton pleads forgetfulness at least 17 times in his 24-page response. In 20 instances, the president refers to his previous sworn answers or to the favorable testimony of other witnesses, such as friend Vernon Jordan.
“COULD THERE be something in the water at the White House that causes memory loss? Bill Clinton, said to have an excellent memory for facts, figures and events when he assumed the presidency, often lapsed into forgetfulness when pressed for details of his relationship with Monica Lewinsky.”
“Hillary Clinton was famous in 1996 for being forgetful about the work she did on Whitewater at the Rose Law firm. And the ex-president was far more famous, or infamous, for being forgetful about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.”
* FL: The Orange County Sheriff’s Office responded to a shooting in the parking lot near a theater complex at Downtown Disney. Giovanny Munoz Perez, 33, of Haines City, was returning to his car with his 12-year-old son; while getting into the car, his .40 caliber Glock accidentally discharged striking him in the left leg.
* OH: Twinsburg Police say 33-year-old Officer Joshua Miktarian was shot and killed early Sunday morning during a traffic stop.
Ashford Thompson, 23, was arrested by but there’s no word on a motive in the shooting. Officer Miktarian was an 11-year police veteran. He leaves behind a wife and a three-and-a-half month old daughter.
* PA: Cheri Baker, 29, stopped by the home of her estranged husband, 32-year-old Matthew Baker when he shot Cheri in the head with a .22 caliber rifle. He then set the house on fire before shooting himself in the head.
* TX: Nearly one month ago, convicted steroids trafficker, David Jacobs, 35, shot and killed himself and his girlfriend, Amanda Earhart-Savell, 30, a professional figure competitor and fitness magazine cover girl. Jacobs, an embittered dealer, alleged that NFL players used his drugs. But he publicly named only one: Matt Lehr. Lehr confirmed that he and Amanda had dated and were in love.
KY: An argument early Sunday morning leaves one dead and one severely injured. George Reynolds shot his daughter Serena Kirtley and then shot and killed himself at Kirtley’s home in Henderson County.
* CA: William Herrman, 70, was shot and killed by a shotgun blast during a tournament at a skeet shooting range, police said Sunday. Authorities said the firearm, belonging to one of the men in the group, unintentionally discharged and struck Herrman. Police are currently investigating how the fatal shot was fired.
* AL: A 22-year-old Headland man, Joseph “Bubba” Tyler Hancock, died after he unintentionally shot himself. Hancock was holding a .40-caliber Springfield pistol when it discharged and a bullet hit him in the head.
* TX: A Dallas City Marshal was wounded Sunday morning when his weapon unintentionally discharged and shot him in the leg. The unidentified marshal was at a detention facility that is used for holding people who have been arrested for public intoxication.
* \KY: Responding to a domestic disturbance call, two Lexington police officers, Matthew Jordan and J. Michael Smith, found Warren Douglas Rayburn, 44, inside the house holding a Bushmaster XM15 assault rifle. After Rayburn would not obey the officers’ orders to put the weapon down, the officers shot the man multiple times. Rayburn is in critical condition.
* MS: Church offers prayers for police officer Dewayne Collier. Last week, police say suspects Cornelius Black and Antonio Turner shot veteran Jackson Police Officer Dewayne Collier after he responded to a robbery at Title Loan on Highway 80 West. They believe the suspects also robbed Popeye’s Restaurant also on Highway 80. Police say the suspects shot 37-year-old Collier in the side and in the head.
A look at climate change over the last 12,000 years. Seems a little more scientific than just looking at 124 years doesn’t it?
Plenty of graphs for you cosmo.
As we go back in time in search of earlier records, the historical record becomes less reliable. Fortunately, Nature has provided its own recording mechanism. As we will explain in Chapter 4, measurements of oxygen isotopes yield an estimate of ancient temperatures combined with total global ice volume – a combination which is just as interesting as temperature alone, if not more so. Data from a kilometer long core taken from the Greenland glacier, as part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project “GISP2″ , are shown in Figure 1-2. For comparison purposes, the zero of temperature scale for this plot was set to match that of the previous plot. For historical interest, we marked some events from European history.
The cool period preceding the 20th century warming is now seen as a dip that lasted 700 years. This period is now referred to as “the little ice age.” (The coldest periods, near 1400 and 1700, are sometimes called the two little ice ages.) In her popular account of the history of the 14th century, historian Barbara W. Tuchman, argues that the low temperatures triggered social conflict and poor food production, and was thus responsible for hunger, war, and possibly even pestilence . Just a few centuries prior, at the beginning of the second millennium, Europe had experienced the “medieval warm period” . It was a time when civilization emerged from the Dark Ages, art and painting flourished, and the wealth and new productivity of Europe allowed it to build the great cathedrals. Some historians will attribute this flowering to great leaders, or to great ideas, or to great inventions, but it is foolish to ignore the changes in climate. Just prior to that, in the 900s, the Vikings were invading France, possibly driven from the more northern latitudes by the cold temperatures of that century. The height of the Roman republic and empire was reached during another time of unusual warmth – even higher than the warm period of today, if the ice-reckoned temperature scale is accurate.
The next plot (Figure 1-3) shows the data from the Greenland ice core back to 10,000 BC. Near the right hand side of this plot, the little dip of the little ice age is clear. Some scientists argue that global warming is not human caused, but is simply a natural return to the normal temperature of the previous 8,000 years.
Go here and enter in 1998 as the first year to display and 2008 as the last year to display. Base period beg year = 1895 and base period end year = 2008.
I appreciate you’re little contributions each day about the military! For many of us the war on terror is nothing more than the occasional soundbite on the news.
I appreciate that you take the time to remind us of the sacrifices many service men and women are making to make us safe.
I’m sure that there are many stories that aren’t nearly as uplifting as the ones you bring to us, thanks for your support of the troops!
The problem using ice core samples is they do not know for sure if warmer periods melted the trapped gas and then lowered the ice levels, thus yielding inaccurate time lineage and readings from the wrong era.
It is very obvious from paleontological and geological records of fossils, sediment layers and etc. that there were warmer periods and colder periods. The tropical swamp lands when dinosaurs roamed and the ice age when the wooly mammoth walked the earth.
Heck, you know they found mammoth tusks and bone fragments right here on Kellogg during the construction phase.
So Kansas was once under a massive amount of ice and snow; before that it was under an ocean.
The false conclusion of the present day climate alarmists is just pure bunkum. Not only have there been warmer and colder periods, the climate shows a natural up and down cycle, dependent on sun spots and orbital axis presentation.
Sol - i assume you are referring to the most recent time. That is due to lags since CO2 is preceeding T which is the reverse of what happened during the Milankovitch cycles. That is part of what made paleoclimatology so fascinating. And, we looked at HOW the various forcers impacted temp and then how temp both fed back to forcers and also impacted other aspects of climate (for example rainfall patterns). Today’s deserts were savannahs doring the lact glaciation - todays savannahs are now desertifying as the jet migrates to higher latitudes.
The frightening thing is that CO2 is far OUTSIDE the envelope of the Milankovitch cycles.
Steven - I agree. I have a presentation that takes about an hour - almost exclusively about the past (and no, cave men did NOT drive SUVs) and only looking briefly to the future. The key is to use the past to develop a foundation of understanding of the mechanisms in order to look forward.
geologist’s motto - “the present is the key to the past” meaning that is we understand physical processes we can look at rocks etc and deduce how they got there. I then extend that to “the present and the past are the key to the future”
Again - I recommend the class. A bit difficult at times but well worth the effort.
“The problem using ice core samples is they do not know for sure if warmer periods melted the trapped gas and then lowered the ice levels, thus yielding inaccurate time lineage and readings from the wrong era.” — Regular
CO2 is not the only forcer - in fact the Milankovitch cycles were triggered by orbital factors and ice-albedo. CO2 then amplified the effect.
This shows the combination of anthropogenic CO2 and other forcers. It also shows why temps have stabalized a bit over the past few years - a period when natural forcers should have led to a slight cooling.
By looking at your graph, our time period is showing an increase in CO2 and an irrefutable cooling trend.
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Ice cores from Antarctica show that at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere usually started to rise only after temperatures had begun to climb. There is uncertainty about the timings, partly because the air trapped in the cores is younger than the ice, but it appears the lags might sometimes have been 800 years or more.
This proves that rising CO2 was not the trigger that caused the initial warming at the end of these ice ages – but no climate scientist has ever made this claim. It certainly does not challenge the idea that more CO2 heats the planet.
We know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas because it absorbs and emits certain frequencies of infrared radiation. Basic physics tells us that gases with this property trap heat radiating from the Earth, that the planet would be a lot colder if this effect was not real and that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will trap even more heat.
What is more, CO2 is just one of several greenhouses gases, and greenhouse gases are just one of many factors affecting the climate. There is no reason to expect a perfect correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in the past: if there is a big change in another climate “forcing”, the correlation will be obscured.
So why has Earth regularly switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods in the past million years? It has long been thought that this is due to variations in Earth’s orbit, known as Milankovitch cycles. These change the amount and location of solar energy reaching Earth. However, the correlation is not perfect and the heating or cooling effect of these orbital variations is small. It has also long been recognised that they cannot fully explain the dramatic temperature switches between ice ages and interglacials.
So if orbital changes did cause the recent ice ages to come and go, there must also have been some kind of feedback effect that amplified the changes in temperatures they produced. Ice is one contender: as the great ice sheets that covered large areas of the planet during the ice ages melted, less of the Sun’s energy would have been reflected back into space, accelerating the warming. But the melting of ice lags behind the beginning of interglacial periods by far more than the rises in CO2.
So Ben, does your one course make you more qualified than these two paleo-climatologists?
cosmos doesn’t like them and even though cosmos is not a scientist, he says they are discredited.
A lot of bunkum from cosmos, the non-scientist wouldn’t you say?
Paleoclimatologist Dr. Ian D. Clark, professor of the Department of Earth Sciences at University of Ottawa, reversed his views on man-made climate change after further examining the evidence. “I used to agree with these dramatic warnings of climate disaster. I taught my students that most of the increase in temperature of the past century was due to human contribution of C02. The association seemed so clear and simple. Increases of greenhouse gases were driving us towards a climate catastrophe,” Clark said in a 2005 documentary “Climate Catastrophe Cancelled: What You’re Not Being Told About the Science of Climate Change.” “However, a few years ago, I decided to look more closely at the science and it astonished me. In fact there is no evidence of humans being the cause. There is, however, overwhelming evidence of natural causes such as changes in the output of the sun. This has completely reversed my views on the Kyoto protocol,” Clark explained. “Actually, many other leading climate researchers also have serious concerns about the science underlying the [Kyoto] Protocol,” he added.
Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, of Carlton University in Ottawa converted from believer in C02 driving the climate change to a skeptic. “I taught my students that CO2 was the prime driver of climate change,” Patterson wrote on April 30, 2007. Patterson said his “conversion” happened following his research on “the nature of paleo-commercial fish populations in the NE Pacific.” “[My conversion from believer to climate skeptic] came about approximately 5-6 years ago when results began to come in from a major NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) Strategic Project Grant where I was PI (principle investigator),” Patterson explained. “Over the course of about a year, I switched allegiances,” he wrote. “As the proxy results began to come in, we were astounded to find that paleoclimatic and paleoproductivity records were full of cycles that corresponded to various sun-spot cycles. About that time, [geochemist] Jan Veizer and others began to publish reasonable hypotheses as to how solar signals could be amplified and control climate,” Patterson noted. Patterson says his conversion “probably cost me a lot of grant money. However, as a scientist I go where the science takes me and not were activists want me to go.” Patterson now asserts that more and more scientists are converting to climate skeptics. “When I go to a scientific meeting, there’s lots of opinion out there, there’s lots of discussion (about climate change). I was at the Geological Society of America meeting in Philadelphia in the fall and I would say that people with my opinion were probably in the majority,” Patterson told the Winnipeg Sun on February 13, 2007. Patterson, who believes the sun is responsible for the recent warm up of the Earth, ridiculed the environmentalists and the media for not reporting the truth. “But if you listen to [Canadian environmental activist David] Suzuki and the media, it’s like a tiger chasing its tail. They try to outdo each other and all the while proclaiming that the debate is over but it isn’t — come out to a scientific meeting sometime,” Patterson said. In a separate interview on April 26, 2007 with a Canadian newspaper, Patterson explained that the scientific proof favors skeptics. “I think the proof in the pudding, based on what (media and governments) are saying, (is) we’re about three quarters of the way (to disaster) with the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere,” he said. “The world should be heating up like crazy by now, and it’s not. The temperatures match very closely with the solar cycles.”
Sol - we were in a slight cooling trend prior to the mid-20th century. You claim that we are now “an irrefutable cooling trend” is false.
“So why has Earth regularly switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods in the past million years?” That is what my presenattion is about - and is one of the things covered in paleoclimatology.
“So if orbital changes did cause the recent ice ages to come and go, there must also have been some kind of feedback effect that amplified the changes in temperatures they produced.” That is what I already said. CO2 and ice-albedo are the biggies.
In fact - ice is so important that the presence of Antarctica as a platform was needed to put us into this overall cyclic system. The ‘almost closing’ of the Arctic Ocean was also a major factor. Additionally, closing off the equatorial current with the Isthmus of Panama was important.
Understanding past climates - especially going back even further with different continental alignments, is a lot of fun.
That would have been expected to warm the stratosphere and then the troposphere. The opposite has occurred - the stratosphere has cooled. That is consistent with CO2 forcing rather than external (solar) forcing.
No regular - I do not use either cosmos or gore as my sources. I use the vast majority of climatologists - and also I read what theskeptics say. I am on Heartland’s mailing list so I get their skeptical articles directly from them.
Solar cycles (which are fairly short) are included among the natural forcers on one of the links I provided above. Volcanoes are another ‘cooler’ force.
“The average surface temperature on Venus is a very toasty 894 ?F! However, Venus’s upper atmosphere is a startling 4-5 times colder than Earth’s upper atmosphere.”
I wasn’t lying, you didn’t mention it. Water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas and is a positive feedback.
Postive feedbacks defined by laws of energy (physics) amplify or direct energies to higher levels, in this case heat.
IPCC has left their computer climate models basically unsound with a pittance of data and little research in methodology figuring out water vapors role in climate change.
Without really understanding water vapor and its physics, the largest greenhouse gas by far, the effects of any climate change alarmism would be irrelevant.
I didn’t mention it does not mean I forgot it. I didn’t mention that day and night alternate either. Or winter and summer.
Yes, they are all there - including water vapor. And including clouds that can be either + or -. And including volcanoes. And including sunspots. And including ENSO.
That is why this does not lend itself to sound bites.
I’m sure I left some more things out of the list above. CH4. N2O.
Can you see the pattern in your graph? We are peaking below the highs of the past. To continue that pattern, cooling is in our future. With such radical changes over time, I don’t understand how you can assume that man would have any influence over the established pattern of the last 400,000 years.
“bth
Posted July 15, 2008 at 12:19 pm | Permalink
CO2 is not the only forcer - in fact the Milankovitch cycles were triggered by orbital factors and ice-albedo. CO2 then amplified the effect.”
regular - ‘amplified’ indicates a positive feedback loop. I have frequently mentioned those.
So, your claim that “You forgot positive feedbacks which is a magnifier of energies” is false.
“You are right that no data have shown that those biases will not be removed. We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
The message from the Sun et al. study, therefore, is that the models used to make the multi-decadal global climate projections that are reported in the IPCC report are “…that underestimating the negative feedback from cloud albedo and overestimating the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor over the tropical Pacific during ENSO is a prevalent problem of climate models.”
This study indicates that the IPCC models are overpredicting global warming in response to positive radiative forcing.
Sol - cooling MIGHT be in the future several thousand years from now. But not in the ‘near term’ (centuries). In fact, with CO2 as much higher today than an interglacial is higher than a glacial I don’t know that even a complete Milankovitch glaciation cycle would trigger much cooling.
And yes, Sol, I do see the pattern. That is the pattern that has repeated so many times throughout the Holocene.
Sol - enroll in the class. Like I said, soundbites don’t work. My presentation about the glaciation cycles goes through the feedback mechanisms that drove those cycles over the past million years.
“We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
Note that Dr. Sun does not say the biases are there - just that it is a possibility worth mentioning. He also does not claim that warming is not happening - only that the projections might ‘maybe’ be high.
Other scientists believe they are likely to be low because they UNDERESTIMATE the positive feedbacks of ice-albedo and soil carbon. And, if you add the observed decrease in phytoplankton primary productivity the evidence stronly suggests that the models are too conservative. NOT the other way around.
“We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
Note that Dr. Sun does not say the biases are there - just that it is a possibility worth mentioning. He also does not claim that warming is not happening - only that the projections might ‘maybe’ be high.
—————————-
Correct.
Dr. Sun gives his hypothesis on what may be an error derived from his empirical studies.
Dr. Sun does not make blatant claims like climate alarmists who do not yet have all the facts.
Dr. Sun is an empirical scientist, not a politician who uses science as an agenda driven philosophy.
I notice that many of the model predictions used were rather old. Even so - when they predicted warming there was warming - they just missed the point spread. These have gotten much better since the 80s and 90s and are fitting the magnitudes better than they had been doing.
Time will tell. I am still young enough that I will likely see the results of the Great Experiment - at least some of them.
President Bush called on the Democratic-run Congress to follow his example and lift a ban on offshore drilling to help increase domestic oil production.
“I readily concede it won’t produce a barrel of oil tomorrow, but it will reverse the psychology,” Bush told a White House news conference
‘Greenhouse gases highest for 800,000 years’ http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL1440399320080514
“Greenhouse gases are at higher levels in the atmosphere than at any time in at least 800,000 years, according to a study of Antarctic ice on Wednesday that extends evidence that mankind is disrupting the climate.
…
More, and graph of CO2, methane, and temperatures over the past 800,000 years (starts 1000 years from present)
So, if I take a slightly longer horizon - looking at a rather small part of the globe (the US) - I get a positive slope. Obviously, if I select short periods and small areas I can find negative slopes.
If you look at the date range of recorded temps (not a ranting alarmist blog) for the periods I have given, 1998 to present, the data is quite clear. Temps have fallen from 1998 to present.
If you look at the graph Ben linked to, you will see the warming and cooling trends.
Blatant Cherry Picking By Stefan Rahmstorf And Colleagues In Science Magazine
Filed under: Climate Change Metrics, Climate Science Misconceptions, Climate Science Reporting — Roger Pielke Sr. @ 7:00 am
There is an article today in Science Express by Stefan Rahmstorf, Anny Cazenave, John A. Church, James E. Hansen, Ralph F. Keeling, David E. Parker,Richard C. Somerville entitled “Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections” which is remarkably blatant about its cherry picking of papers to support their view and in ignoring peer reviewed papers that do not.
We should kill the Blue Whales to save the Earth!!! They are the largest animal on the planet and exhale the most C02. Do your part America, go kill yourself a whale!!! If you really care about the Earth you WILL do it!
http://michaelbane.blogspot.com/2008/07/thought-from-colonel.html
A gun isn’t a magic wand that repels bad guys. Think of it, instead, as a fire extinguisher. If you’re looking to prevent fires in your home, a fire extinguisher isn’t your first purchase. Instead, you analyze your home with an eye toward minimizing fire risks. Is the wiring old and sparking every time you turn on a switch? The solution is new wiring; the fire extinguisher is strictly for secondary protection. BEFORE you make the decision to purchase a gun, you need to study your lifestyle, your home, your family, with an eye on minimizing risks.
snip
To put the fire out, right?
And you have a limited resource to accomplish this; fire extinguishers won’t keep spraying forever. So to maximize the chances that you’re going to be able to extinguish the fire, you direct your limited firefighting resources directly at the center of the fire. You don’t spray around the outside edges of the fire to keep it from spreading—it’s burning a hole through your kitchen floor, after all. You don’t give the right side of the fire a squirt in the hopes that it will quit on its own. You don’t mess around with even a small fire because you understand completely that, unless you act decisively, the fire will destroy your house and maybe even kill you.
This is the mindset we must have when we are in fear for our lives and must act!
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year’s time. For all four sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn’t itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
Multi- nic’d ‘Regular’ posted July 15, 2008 at 12:14 pm
“cosmos does not like paleo-climatologists, he says they are wrong, even though they have decades of experience and PhD’s in the subject.
So, one class at WSU wouldn’t help anything to convince cosmos.
If it ain’t the gospel according to the Goracle, it must be wrong.”
—————
Paleo-climatologists are very important to understanding our present climate.
But their knowledge about paleo does not make them credible if/when they make unsupported claims about AGW.
An example: http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/minchin-denies-climate-change-manmade/2007/03/14/1173722560417.html
A former CSIRO climate scientist, and now head of a new sustainability institute at Monash University, Graeme Pearman, said Professor Carter was not a credible source on climate change.
“If he has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process,” Dr Pearman said. “That is what the rest of us have to do.” He said he was letting the fossil fuel industry off the hook.
cosmos_originally
Posted July 15, 2008 at 2:11 pm | Permalink
ANTI
Where does the carbon in the CO2 that the whales exhale come from?
Do whales eat fossil-fuels that had been safely sequestered underground for a very long time? /sacarsm OFF
—–
1. Jesus
2. Yes, they do.
Now when you reach the ocean, try to fashion a spear from some driftwood. Then wade out until you see one of the SOB’s and stab it in the eye! We will wait patiently for your return.
One approach to forecasting the natural long-term climate trend is to estimate the time constants of response necessary to explain the observed phase relationships between orbital variation and climatic change, and then to use those time constants in the exponential-response model. When such a model is applied to Vernekar’s (39) astronomical projections, the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate (80).
An article has appeared in a recent issue of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics with a curious title “Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.” Wow, that’s a mouthful! Imagine publishing a paper in a respected, peer-reviewed scientific journal in which you predict global cooling over the next few decades? Apparently, the authors were not moved by the 46.6 million websites found when doing a quick search of the internet for “global warming.”
Snip
Zhen-Shan and Xian gathered temperature data for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, and 10 regions in China from 1881 to 2002; the datasets they chose are the same ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They also gathered data for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the same 1881 to 2002 period, and again, they selected the data commonly used by climate scientists throughout the world. Anyone criticizing their conclusions would be hard-pressed to argue that Zhen-Shan and Xian used inappropriate data sets.
snip
They report that “Despite the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the components IMF2, IMF3 and IMF4 of global temperature changes are all in falling” and that “the effect of greenhouse warming is deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate change in the coming 20 years. Consequently, we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”
Father badly beaten after trying to protect daughter at Valleyfair
Six men remain in the Scott County jail following what police call a brutal assault on a father trying to protect his daughter.
Shakopee police say as the crowd was leaving Valleyfair Amusement Park around midnight on the 4th of July, the victim’s daughter was confronted by two men.
“The 12-year-old daughter was either touched or slapped in the buttocks area,” Scott County Attorney Patrick Ciliberto said. “The father confronted (the men) by yelling at them for what they had done to his daughter,” he added.
Police say the two men called their friends, who were also in the park. The group of seven men and a juvenile then confronted the father.
“They beat him to the ground and then, the evidence that we have, when he was on the ground, they used their feet on him. They were kicking him in the face when he was down,” Ciliberto said.
According to the criminal complaints, the men were stomping on the 41-year-old father as he lay on the ground, unconscious.
He suffered severe head injuries, including a fractured right orbital bone and possible subdural bleeding on the brain. “We don’t know if there are permanent injuries yet,” the County Attorney said.
Shakopee Police found the suspects in the parking lot. Seven of them were arrested and one man ran from the scene and police are still looking for him. Of the seven taken into custody, one was a 14-year-old.
The six adults charged and held in jail are Devondre Evans-Lewis, Andrew Shannon, Darris Evans, Terry Arnold, Derry Evans, and Anthony Gildersleeve.
The Scott County Attorney says several of the men have criminal histories and they are all from the Twin Cities metro area. They range in age from 18 to 22-years-old.
All six adults have been charged with 3rd degree felony assault causing substantial bodily harm.
Really! I should actually make a comment to the fact that I am posting with ‘no comment’!
Are you really that incredibly stupid?
MOst of the stuff I post or link to I do because they interest me. Some of it I agree with and some of it I post just because it’s a different take on a subject that you won’t find in the MSM.
Some of it I post just to drive you nuts. (a very short drive by the way)
You would be better served if you merely addressed your comments to the content of my links instead of using them to defame mebased on what you assume I believe.
I believe you are a nut, that’s all you need to know for sure!
fleettwood
Posted July 15, 2008 at 2:35 pm | Permalink
“We should kill the Blue Whales to save the Earth!!!”
No can do. My arms are still too tired from beating on the baby seals.
——
Thanks for doing your part Fleettwood, at least those baby bastards seals won’t be spewing toxic C02 into the atmosphere any more. We must think of the children!
“NEWPORT NEWS - An armed-robbery suspect was shot by his potential victim Tuesday, the second time in a week where the tables were quickly turned, police said.”
A Russian scientist predicts a period of global cooling in coming decades, followed by a warmer interval.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov expects a repeat of the period known as the Little Ice Age. During the 16th century, the Baltic Sea froze so hard that hotels were built on the ice for people crossing the sea in coaches.
The Little Ice Age is believed to have contributed to the end of the Norse colony in Greenland, which was founded during an interval of much warmer weather.
Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.
“The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off until better times,” he said. “The global temperature maximum has been reached on Earth, and Earth’s global temperature will decline to a climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol.”
313 Comments
Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered
From Physics & Society: July 2008, Volume 37, Number 3
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably caused more than half of the “global warming” of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid warming. However, global mean surface temperature has not risen since 1998 and may have fallen since late 2001. The present analysis suggests that the failure of the IPCC’s models to predict this and many other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its evaluation of the three factors whose product is climate sensitivity:
1. Radiative forcing deltaF;
2. The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter kappa and
3. The feedback multiplier f
Some reasons why the IPCC’s estimates may be excessive and unsafe are explained. More importantly, the conclusion is that, perhaps, there is no “climate crisis”, and that currently-fashionable efforts by governments to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions are pointless, may be ill-conceived, and could even be harmful.
More here
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm
Don’t laugh: Global warming is going to increase kidney stones
The “reasoning” below is that kidney stones are more prevalent in warmer areas of the USA and that they are therefore caused by warmth. That’s just epidemiological speculation, however. People in some warmer parts of the USA do get more kidney stones but is that BECAUSE OF the warmth? Bacteria are being increasingly implicated in kidney stone formation so it could (for instance) be due to differing prevalence of bacteria in the areas concerned. Note also that kidney stone prevalence is high in the Great Lakes area, which is not exactly the warmest part of the USA
More Americans are likely to suffer from kidney stones in the coming years as a result of global warming, according to researchers at the University of Texas.
Kidney stones, which are formed from dissolved minerals in the urine and can be extremely painful, are often caused by caused by dehydration, either by not drinking enough liquid or losing too much due to high heat conditions. If global warming trends continue as projected by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the United States can expect as much as a 30 percent growth in kidney stone disease in some of its driest areas, said the findings published in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The increased incidence of disease would represent between 1.6 million and 2.2 million cases by 2050, costing the US economy as much as one billion dollars in treatment costs.
“This study is one of the first examples of global warming causing a direct medical consequence for humans,” said Margaret Pearle, professor of urology at University of Texas Southwestern and senior author of the paper. “When people relocate from areas of moderate temperature to areas with warmer climates, a rapid increase in stone risk has been observed. This has been shown in military deployments to the Middle East for instance.”
The lead author of the research, Tom Brikowski, compared kidney stone rates with UN forecasts of temperature increases and created two mathematical models to predict the impact on future populations. One formula showed an increase in the southern half of the country, including the already existing “kidney stone belt” of the southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
The other showed that the increase would be concentrated in the upper Midwest. “Similar climate-related changes in the prevalence of kidney-stone disease can be expected in other stone belts worldwide,” the study said.
Source
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080714210823.ys7a8mb8&show_article=1
There’s “global friggin warming” and then there’s this. But don’t let me interrupt.
It’s just a bank in California, Pleefer. Hell, California isn’t even part of the US any more. They just don’t realize it yet!
You believe it’ll stop there eh?
Ok.
I’m going with the thought that it’s an early warning sign, but that’s just me.
Ignore me.
But, you’re right, La Reconquista is happening as we speak.
We had anthropogenic CO2 emissions to lead us through and to be honest it was very boring. This was definately the prevalence in the failure so far. We went inside and saw professor, which was most impressive.
Wha???
Exactly.
Indeed.
Banks are businesses. Run a business poorly and it fails. Run a bank poorly and it fails.
I use my banks to transfer assets, not keep them. If my bank fails I’ll use a different one. No problem.
California banks are in trouble because the real estate bubble is collapsing. People ask why the real estate prices are falling. The question should be how they got so inflated in the first place.
Good morning Regular! We need to do lunch some day. I’ll invite the boy and we’ll tell Mr Rimel so he can do drivebys!
Aren’t I invited?
#
HLP
Posted July 15, 2008 at 6:50 am | Permalink
Good morning Regular! We need to do lunch some day. I’ll invite the boy and we’ll tell Mr Rimel so he can do drivebys!
============================
Hey Hank!
Mornin’ back at ya.
Sounds good to me, have stomach, will travel.
Good morning Apophis! I trust you had a good trip. Did you get over to the Museum of Science and Industry?
I would really like to see the U-505 again since they moved it.
“The question should be how they got so inflated in the first place.”
Your answer to that question would be??? This should be good.
There is no reason to be concerned that there are now runs on banks? The 1930’s were a good period of U.S. history? Further deregulation will get us out of these problems, how, exactly?
It is a good thing that U.S. voters will see fit to soon take the reins of power away from ideologues who got us into to this mess in the first place.
Rove at Fox News - no problem, no conflicts of interest, there. You guys are just too much:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080715/pl_nm/rove_dc_1
Please help yourself to another heaping helping of the conservative KoolAide.
Here’s the deal.
The same elite, not 19 arabs based in a cave, who brought us 9-11-01 are also bringing us economic warfare in which to bring about the engineered coming depression. This will have us beg for mercy and mercy WILL BE THE North American Union. Laugh all you want or get yourselves and families prepared.
I wish it was just a simple “housing bubble”.
Greetings, all. I’m a newbie here at WE Blog.
I promise not to be a pest about this subject on these pages, but: Via the website Kansas Cyclist, I found this story
http://www.hutchnews.com/Todaystop/bikes2008-07-08T20-59-02
in the Hutchinson paper about the increase in bike sales that dealers there have experienced. I’ve not run across similar stories in the Eagle, but the irony of the Hutch story is that it includes a brief interview with Byron Flick, the owner of Heartland Bicycles here in town.
I’ve recently begun using a bike as my primary mode of transportation, and though one person does not a trend make, I’ve noticed more folks on bikes of late–and not just here in the Riverside area. There’s also the curiosity that, as I posted about in my cycling blog here
http://cyclinginwichita.blogspot.com/2008/07/we-have-our-work-cut-out-for-us.html
Wichita ranks 3rd from the bottom among the 50 largest U.S. cities in terms of the percentage of people who cycle to work. So anyway, I’m just wondering aloud, and in the direction of the Eagle staff, whether the local paper has plans to report on cycling and cyclists. Given the rise in gas prices, environmental concerns, obvious health benefits, and whether and to what extent the city should encourage cycling as a practical mode of transportation, it would seem to me that stories on such issues would be of interest to many readers.
Liberal Democrats: Freedom of Speech Unless it’s against Obama
Some bloggers opposed to Barack Obama say they suspect Obama’s supporters — with the assistance of Google — may have tried to censor them when the Internet giant froze their Web sites for five days last month.
Seven blogs run by Democrats who oppose Obama’s nomination for the presidency were incorrectly flagged as spam sites by Blogger, the hosting service Google has owned since 2003. Google says it was an automated response from a spam filter.
cont’d at:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,382452,00.html
Heheheheh. OMG, too funny.
Poodle dancing. For real. It’s the latest craze in Japan.
And the WEBlog….
http://gmy.news.yahoo.com/v/8818534
Alright where the heck is GMC anyway.
Here, P-mom. Why?
I’ll comment when there’s something I think is worthy of comment. But there’s not.
So - whatchawant?
When I read about the GW / kidney stone news I hoped it would be included in the daily feud. Glad you found and posted that Hank. Wouldn’t want to leave out any of the important details since y’all are so close to getting the whole problem sorted out!
Maybe this will finally be the good news out of Wichita — WE Bloggers not only got to the root of the GW controversy, but solved other world problems with ease! It has been proven there are more know-it-alls in Wichita, Kansas, than any other place in the world!
Won’t we all be proud when they finally take note and listen to us.
Pmom if contacting GMC is in regards to your friends problem with the Eldorado PD your probably better off talking to the District Attorney or even the Attorney General.
http://www.bucoks.com/depts/attorney/Office.htm#staff
More from the Kidney Stone Department of Pulling Numbers Completely Out of Your Ass:
“The increased incidence of disease would represent between 1.6 million and 2.2 million cases by 2050, costing the US economy as much as one billion dollars in treatment costs.”
In the year 2525 If man is still alive If woman can survive…
Having trouble making up your mind who to vote for?
http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j258/v-34/file003.jpg
Heheheheh. At least they are equal opportunity offenders. The phelps gang of thugs plans to picket Tony Snow’s funeral.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389×3617847
KFG, is protesting funerals something that makes you laugh?
KFG, your delight is horrible.
It do suck when the shiv cuts both ways don’t it cons?
Let me guess BlueJay, you are one of those that thinks Snow was a Nazi. That is your marching order as of late isn’t it?
http://icantforthelifeofmefigureouthowacandidateschoiceoflapeljewelrymakesadifference,/
idiot.
Give me an “Amen” brother BlueJay!
RAMEN brother Apophis!
I stand corrected…………………………..”RAMEN”, it is!
Man Remodeling Home Kills Intruder, Deputies Say
Man Awoke To Find Someone In Home, Fired Shots
http://www.foxcarolina.com/news/16886848/detail.html#-
“LAURENS, S.C. — Deputies said a man who was sleeping in a home he was remodeling shot and killed an intruder who woke him up early Tuesday morning.”
the reason she’s laughing is because non of the cons say a word about when Phelps is protesting a gay person’s funeral. The cons perpetuate this ‘us against them’ belief for the GLBT communities.
Tony was part of that network.
I don’t say anything about Phelps because I don’t want to perpetuate the scumbag and his family.
Sometimes silence speaks volumes, especially if you don’t give attention to the foul people of the earth.
non of the cons say a word about when Phelps is protesting a gay person’s funeral.
Bullsh*%. NEVER, NEVER, has anyone here defended the foul behavior of Phelps band of idiots. KFG goes out of her way to attempt to tar anyone she disagrees with with the broad brush of Phelps; it’s wrong, of course, and she knows it, but also knows that intimating the association fouls anyone she can associatiate with that band of lunatics.
But NO ONE - I say again - NO ONE has ever defended these people. Some, on both “sides,” have defended his right to speak, but NO ONE has EVER defended his position.
Never.
You know better, P-mom.
Exactly GMC70.
“the GLBT communities”
Does the “Bi” part of those initials mean they will hump anybody? Male or Female?
Just wondering.
Yeah, Regular, that’s a temptation. But the foul people continue to exist and pollute our lives and we’re too civilized to do anything about it.
A shame.
Dennis
We haven’t seen forgetfulness like this since Nixon!
http://www.kansas.com/wireupdates/story/463706.html
Committee says fuzzy memories hurt Tillman probe
By SCOTT LINDLAW
SAN FRANCISCO - A “striking lack of recollection” by White House and military officials prevented congressional investigators from determining who was responsible for misinformation spread after the friendly fire death of Army Ranger Pat Tillman, a House committee said Monday.
Although military investigators determined within days that the onetime NFL player was killed by his own troops in Afghanistan following an enemy ambush, five weeks passed before the circumstances of his death were made public. During that time, the Army claimed Tillman was killed by enemy fire.
Rep. Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, said in April 2007 that his goal was to discern the genesis of the misinformation. “Was it the result of incompetence, miscommunication or a deliberate strategy?” he said.
The panel acknowledged Monday it had fallen short of this goal. The committee received a flurry of White House e-mails sent as the Bush administration responded to Tillman’s death, but no documents about friendly fire. The committee interviewed several top White House officials about the case, but “not a single one could recall when he learned about the fratricide or what he did in response,” it said in its 48-page report.
The committee reported a similar lack of information relating to misinformation surrounding Pvt. Jessica Lynch, who was rescued from an Iraqi hospital after she was badly injured and captured in a 2003 ambush. The committee examined how the story of the ambush of her convoy was changed into a tale of heroism on her part.
“As the committee investigated the Tillman and Lynch cases, it encountered a striking lack of recollection,” the report said.
The panel concluded that the lack of information “makes it impossible for the committee to assign responsibility for the misinformation in Corporal Tillman’s and Private Lynch’s cases.”
Jim Wilkinson, a onetime White House official who was communications director for U.S. Central Command, told the committee he did not know where the false information on Lynch originated, or who disseminated it.
In the case of Tillman’s April 22, 2004, death, White House officials generated nearly 200 e-mails on the matter the day after, the committee found. Politics seemed to fuel the administration’s interest: Several of the e-mails came from the staff of President Bush’s re-election campaign, urging Bush to respond publicly.
The White House “rushed” to release a public statement of condolence at about noon on April 23.
But in doing so, the White House violated a military policy enacted into law by Bush himself in 2003, the committee found. The Military Family Peace of Mind Act bars the announcement of a casualty until 24 hours after a family is notified.
The Defense Department, adhering to the policy, had not yet publicly confirmed Tillman’s death when the White House released Bush’s statement of condolence.
Realizing this belatedly, White House spokewoman Claire Buchan warned her colleagues in an e-mail: “alert - do not use Tillman statement.” But news services were already running the White House statement.
The White House also failed to determine whether information about Tillman’s death was classified, the committee found. Tillman’s Ranger unit was routinely involved in sensitive operations along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Then-White House communications director Dan Bartlett told the committee he had approved release of the president’s statement because of intense news media interest.
The committee cited one exchange between White House political chief Karl Rove and Ron Fournier, then a political reporter for The Associated Press.
In a chain under the subject line “H-E-R-O,” Rove replied to an e-mail from Fournier by saying, “How does our country continue to produce men and women like this?”
Fournier replied, “The Lord creates men and women like this all over the world. But only the great and free countries allow them to flourish. Keep up the fight.”
Fournier, now the AP’s acting Washington bureau chief, said Monday: “I was an AP political reporter at the time of the 2004 e-mail exchange, and was interacting with a source, a top aide to the president, in the course of following an important and compelling story. I regret the breezy nature of the correspondence.”
The story of Tillman, a man who gave up a lucrative career in professional sports to serve in the Army, “made the American people feel good about our country … and our military,” Bartlett told the committee. But he acknowledged the statement might “set a precedent.”
Another frenzy of White House activity took place, well out of public view, in the days leading up to a Bush speech on Tillman to the annual White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, the committee found.
While Bush and other presidents have often delivered humorous remarks to the gathering, Bush had “got singed pretty bad” the previous year for making what some critics perceived as inappropriate joking remarks during wartime, Bartlett said. So the White House made a deliberate decision to “pay tribute to the troops,” and made Tillman’s death the week before the centerpiece, he said.
Speechwriters and fact-checkers expended hundreds of words in e-mail memos trying to confirm that Tillman and his brother Kevin had joined the Army because of the attacks of Sept. 11, but could not do so, because the brothers had rarely or never spoken publicly about it.
Nevertheless, Bush’s remarks to the correspondents’ association contained what one White House official admitted was a “speculative” statement by Bush: “Friends say that this young man saw the images of September the 11th, and seeing that evil, he felt called to defend America.”
White House spokesman Trey Bohn said Monday that officials there cooperated extensively with the committee during its investigation.
“The report contains no evidence that the White House said anything incorrect or misleading regarding the death of Corporal Tillman,” Bohn said. “Our thoughts and prayers remain with the Tillman family.”
The authors of the new report carefully avoided assigning blame or intent in either the Tillman or Lynch cases. But, they concluded: “In both cases, affirmative acts created new facts that were significantly different than what the soldiers in the field knew to be true. And in both cases, the fictional accounts proved to be compelling public narratives at difficult times in the war.”
The committee also looked into the case of Army Spc. Jesse Buryj of Canton, Ohio. It took nine months for his family to learn that his death in Iraq in May 2004 was not the result of an accidental vehicle crash as they were first told. He was killed by fire from U.S. or Polish soldiers in Karbala after a dump truck hurtled through a checkpoint and crashed into the armored vehicle in which he was riding.
Buryj’s parents accepted an invitation to meet Bush at a July 2004 campaign rally. They told investigators they had pressed Bush to help them find answers about their son’s death, and said Bush agreed to help.
“A few months later, a Bush-Cheney campaign official contacted the family,” the congressional investigators found. “Rather than offer assistance, the official asked Specialist Buryj’s mother to appear in a campaign commercial for the president. Mrs. Buryj refused.”
“We haven’t seen forgetfulness like this since Nixon!”
I think we could nominate some people much later that him. Maybe like this:
“I do not recall.” “I have no specific memory of that conversation.” “As I told the grand jury.”
Clinton pleads forgetfulness at least 17 times in his 24-page response. In 20 instances, the president refers to his previous sworn answers or to the favorable testimony of other witnesses, such as friend Vernon Jordan.
Or, maybe this:
“COULD THERE be something in the water at the White House that causes memory loss? Bill Clinton, said to have an excellent memory for facts, figures and events when he assumed the presidency, often lapsed into forgetfulness when pressed for details of his relationship with Monica Lewinsky.”
How about this?
“Hillary Clinton was famous in 1996 for being forgetful about the work she did on Whitewater at the Rose Law firm. And the ex-president was far more famous, or infamous, for being forgetful about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.”
Say hellow to STAGFLATION:
Inflation grows at fastest pace in 27 years
June wholesale prices surge 1.8%, propelled by soaring gas and food costs; biggest monthly rise since November.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/15/news/economy/prices_june.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008071510
For “Nathaniel” –
America’s Shooting Gallery 7.14.08
* FL: The Orange County Sheriff’s Office responded to a shooting in the parking lot near a theater complex at Downtown Disney. Giovanny Munoz Perez, 33, of Haines City, was returning to his car with his 12-year-old son; while getting into the car, his .40 caliber Glock accidentally discharged striking him in the left leg.
* OH: Twinsburg Police say 33-year-old Officer Joshua Miktarian was shot and killed early Sunday morning during a traffic stop.
Ashford Thompson, 23, was arrested by but there’s no word on a motive in the shooting. Officer Miktarian was an 11-year police veteran. He leaves behind a wife and a three-and-a-half month old daughter.
* PA: Cheri Baker, 29, stopped by the home of her estranged husband, 32-year-old Matthew Baker when he shot Cheri in the head with a .22 caliber rifle. He then set the house on fire before shooting himself in the head.
* TX: Nearly one month ago, convicted steroids trafficker, David Jacobs, 35, shot and killed himself and his girlfriend, Amanda Earhart-Savell, 30, a professional figure competitor and fitness magazine cover girl. Jacobs, an embittered dealer, alleged that NFL players used his drugs. But he publicly named only one: Matt Lehr. Lehr confirmed that he and Amanda had dated and were in love.
KY: An argument early Sunday morning leaves one dead and one severely injured. George Reynolds shot his daughter Serena Kirtley and then shot and killed himself at Kirtley’s home in Henderson County.
* CA: William Herrman, 70, was shot and killed by a shotgun blast during a tournament at a skeet shooting range, police said Sunday. Authorities said the firearm, belonging to one of the men in the group, unintentionally discharged and struck Herrman. Police are currently investigating how the fatal shot was fired.
* AL: A 22-year-old Headland man, Joseph “Bubba” Tyler Hancock, died after he unintentionally shot himself. Hancock was holding a .40-caliber Springfield pistol when it discharged and a bullet hit him in the head.
* TX: A Dallas City Marshal was wounded Sunday morning when his weapon unintentionally discharged and shot him in the leg. The unidentified marshal was at a detention facility that is used for holding people who have been arrested for public intoxication.
* \KY: Responding to a domestic disturbance call, two Lexington police officers, Matthew Jordan and J. Michael Smith, found Warren Douglas Rayburn, 44, inside the house holding a Bushmaster XM15 assault rifle. After Rayburn would not obey the officers’ orders to put the weapon down, the officers shot the man multiple times. Rayburn is in critical condition.
* MS: Church offers prayers for police officer Dewayne Collier. Last week, police say suspects Cornelius Black and Antonio Turner shot veteran Jackson Police Officer Dewayne Collier after he responded to a robbery at Title Loan on Highway 80 West. They believe the suspects also robbed Popeye’s Restaurant also on Highway 80. Police say the suspects shot 37-year-old Collier in the side and in the head.
A look at climate change over the last 12,000 years. Seems a little more scientific than just looking at 124 years doesn’t it?
Plenty of graphs for you cosmo.
As we go back in time in search of earlier records, the historical record becomes less reliable. Fortunately, Nature has provided its own recording mechanism. As we will explain in Chapter 4, measurements of oxygen isotopes yield an estimate of ancient temperatures combined with total global ice volume – a combination which is just as interesting as temperature alone, if not more so. Data from a kilometer long core taken from the Greenland glacier, as part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project “GISP2″ , are shown in Figure 1-2. For comparison purposes, the zero of temperature scale for this plot was set to match that of the previous plot. For historical interest, we marked some events from European history.
The cool period preceding the 20th century warming is now seen as a dip that lasted 700 years. This period is now referred to as “the little ice age.” (The coldest periods, near 1400 and 1700, are sometimes called the two little ice ages.) In her popular account of the history of the 14th century, historian Barbara W. Tuchman, argues that the low temperatures triggered social conflict and poor food production, and was thus responsible for hunger, war, and possibly even pestilence . Just a few centuries prior, at the beginning of the second millennium, Europe had experienced the “medieval warm period” . It was a time when civilization emerged from the Dark Ages, art and painting flourished, and the wealth and new productivity of Europe allowed it to build the great cathedrals. Some historians will attribute this flowering to great leaders, or to great ideas, or to great inventions, but it is foolish to ignore the changes in climate. Just prior to that, in the 900s, the Vikings were invading France, possibly driven from the more northern latitudes by the cold temperatures of that century. The height of the Roman republic and empire was reached during another time of unusual warmth – even higher than the warm period of today, if the ice-reckoned temperature scale is accurate.
The next plot (Figure 1-3) shows the data from the Greenland ice core back to 10,000 BC. Near the right hand side of this plot, the little dip of the little ice age is clear. Some scientists argue that global warming is not human caused, but is simply a natural return to the normal temperature of the previous 8,000 years.
http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.html
Go here and enter in 1998 as the first year to display and 2008 as the last year to display. Base period beg year = 1895 and base period end year = 2008.
What does that pesky little graph show you?
Good Morning Ben!
I appreciate you’re little contributions each day about the military! For many of us the war on terror is nothing more than the occasional soundbite on the news.
I appreciate that you take the time to remind us of the sacrifices many service men and women are making to make us safe.
I’m sure that there are many stories that aren’t nearly as uplifting as the ones you bring to us, thanks for your support of the troops!
12,000 years? We like to look at at least a million years for the recent record.
Ben,
Strange how the graphs posted here only represent data from 1895 to present. If you have graphs of a greater period, please share.
Good morning Hank. Just want to make sure all sides are presented.
Of course Ben,
You’re doing a geat job, what with the MSM being so one sided and all!
Yep - the MSM helped sell the war; now at least McClatchy is covering it.
Ben,
Do you have graphs or other data showing the climate change over the last million or so years?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=41&tstamp=200709
Only about 350,000 years on the graph - it has been extended back further.
I have textbooks that look back a LOT further - however with continents wandering around the globe their interpretation gets more difficult.
The problem using ice core samples is they do not know for sure if warmer periods melted the trapped gas and then lowered the ice levels, thus yielding inaccurate time lineage and readings from the wrong era.
It is very obvious from paleontological and geological records of fossils, sediment layers and etc. that there were warmer periods and colder periods. The tropical swamp lands when dinosaurs roamed and the ice age when the wooly mammoth walked the earth.
Heck, you know they found mammoth tusks and bone fragments right here on Kellogg during the construction phase.
So Kansas was once under a massive amount of ice and snow; before that it was under an ocean.
The false conclusion of the present day climate alarmists is just pure bunkum. Not only have there been warmer and colder periods, the climate shows a natural up and down cycle, dependent on sun spots and orbital axis presentation.
From your graph, it looks like temps are decreasing as CO2 increases. How is that explained?
It also looks like a pattern that doesn’t change much – we are where we are supposed to be.
I found a graph too that shows us in a cooling trend.
Sol - I don’t think the graphs show that 0- rather quite the opposite.
Suggestion: Geology 810S at WSU this fall. Paleoclimatology. A fascinating class.
Ben,
It is from your graph. CO2 is still rising while temps are decreasing. How is that explained?
“Suggestion: Geology 810S at WSU this fall. Paleoclimatology. A fascinating class.”
I know this will sound like an elitist excuse, but some things cannot be efficiently reduced to sound bites.
“Other than that, Mrs. Lincloln, how did you like the play?”
http://youtube.com/watch?v=IAIv0vmY4qs&feature=user
Sol - i assume you are referring to the most recent time. That is due to lags since CO2 is preceeding T which is the reverse of what happened during the Milankovitch cycles. That is part of what made paleoclimatology so fascinating. And, we looked at HOW the various forcers impacted temp and then how temp both fed back to forcers and also impacted other aspects of climate (for example rainfall patterns). Today’s deserts were savannahs doring the lact glaciation - todays savannahs are now desertifying as the jet migrates to higher latitudes.
The frightening thing is that CO2 is far OUTSIDE the envelope of the Milankovitch cycles.
Steven - I agree. I have a presentation that takes about an hour - almost exclusively about the past (and no, cave men did NOT drive SUVs) and only looking briefly to the future. The key is to use the past to develop a foundation of understanding of the mechanisms in order to look forward.
geologist’s motto - “the present is the key to the past” meaning that is we understand physical processes we can look at rocks etc and deduce how they got there. I then extend that to “the present and the past are the key to the future”
Again - I recommend the class. A bit difficult at times but well worth the effort.
before and after
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRUx0AmJG_c
cosmos does not like paleo-climatologists, he says they are wrong, even though they have decades of experience and PhD’s in the subject.
So, one class at WSU wouldn’t help anything to convince cosmos.
If it ain’t the gospel according to the Goracle, it must be wrong.
But you know,
cosmos is not a scientist.
“The problem using ice core samples is they do not know for sure if warmer periods melted the trapped gas and then lowered the ice levels, thus yielding inaccurate time lineage and readings from the wrong era.” — Regular
Gas doesn’t melt, idiot.
CO2 is not the only forcer - in fact the Milankovitch cycles were triggered by orbital factors and ice-albedo. CO2 then amplified the effect.
This shows the combination of anthropogenic CO2 and other forcers. It also shows why temps have stabalized a bit over the past few years - a period when natural forcers should have led to a slight cooling.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=62&tstamp=200802
Even with this temporary stabalization we are far above the temp levels before 2000.
Ben,
By looking at your graph, our time period is showing an increase in CO2 and an irrefutable cooling trend.
****************************************
Ice cores from Antarctica show that at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere usually started to rise only after temperatures had begun to climb. There is uncertainty about the timings, partly because the air trapped in the cores is younger than the ice, but it appears the lags might sometimes have been 800 years or more.
This proves that rising CO2 was not the trigger that caused the initial warming at the end of these ice ages – but no climate scientist has ever made this claim. It certainly does not challenge the idea that more CO2 heats the planet.
We know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas because it absorbs and emits certain frequencies of infrared radiation. Basic physics tells us that gases with this property trap heat radiating from the Earth, that the planet would be a lot colder if this effect was not real and that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will trap even more heat.
What is more, CO2 is just one of several greenhouses gases, and greenhouse gases are just one of many factors affecting the climate. There is no reason to expect a perfect correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in the past: if there is a big change in another climate “forcing”, the correlation will be obscured.
So why has Earth regularly switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods in the past million years? It has long been thought that this is due to variations in Earth’s orbit, known as Milankovitch cycles. These change the amount and location of solar energy reaching Earth. However, the correlation is not perfect and the heating or cooling effect of these orbital variations is small. It has also long been recognised that they cannot fully explain the dramatic temperature switches between ice ages and interglacials.
So if orbital changes did cause the recent ice ages to come and go, there must also have been some kind of feedback effect that amplified the changes in temperatures they produced. Ice is one contender: as the great ice sheets that covered large areas of the planet during the ice ages melted, less of the Sun’s energy would have been reflected back into space, accelerating the warming. But the melting of ice lags behind the beginning of interglacial periods by far more than the rises in CO2.
“But you know,
cosmos is not a scientist.”
But I am. That is why I suggest the course.
So Ben, does your one course make you more qualified than these two paleo-climatologists?
cosmos doesn’t like them and even though cosmos is not a scientist, he says they are discredited.
A lot of bunkum from cosmos, the non-scientist wouldn’t you say?
Paleoclimatologist Dr. Ian D. Clark, professor of the Department of Earth Sciences at University of Ottawa, reversed his views on man-made climate change after further examining the evidence. “I used to agree with these dramatic warnings of climate disaster. I taught my students that most of the increase in temperature of the past century was due to human contribution of C02. The association seemed so clear and simple. Increases of greenhouse gases were driving us towards a climate catastrophe,” Clark said in a 2005 documentary “Climate Catastrophe Cancelled: What You’re Not Being Told About the Science of Climate Change.” “However, a few years ago, I decided to look more closely at the science and it astonished me. In fact there is no evidence of humans being the cause. There is, however, overwhelming evidence of natural causes such as changes in the output of the sun. This has completely reversed my views on the Kyoto protocol,” Clark explained. “Actually, many other leading climate researchers also have serious concerns about the science underlying the [Kyoto] Protocol,” he added.
Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, of Carlton University in Ottawa converted from believer in C02 driving the climate change to a skeptic. “I taught my students that CO2 was the prime driver of climate change,” Patterson wrote on April 30, 2007. Patterson said his “conversion” happened following his research on “the nature of paleo-commercial fish populations in the NE Pacific.” “[My conversion from believer to climate skeptic] came about approximately 5-6 years ago when results began to come in from a major NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) Strategic Project Grant where I was PI (principle investigator),” Patterson explained. “Over the course of about a year, I switched allegiances,” he wrote. “As the proxy results began to come in, we were astounded to find that paleoclimatic and paleoproductivity records were full of cycles that corresponded to various sun-spot cycles. About that time, [geochemist] Jan Veizer and others began to publish reasonable hypotheses as to how solar signals could be amplified and control climate,” Patterson noted. Patterson says his conversion “probably cost me a lot of grant money. However, as a scientist I go where the science takes me and not were activists want me to go.” Patterson now asserts that more and more scientists are converting to climate skeptics. “When I go to a scientific meeting, there’s lots of opinion out there, there’s lots of discussion (about climate change). I was at the Geological Society of America meeting in Philadelphia in the fall and I would say that people with my opinion were probably in the majority,” Patterson told the Winnipeg Sun on February 13, 2007. Patterson, who believes the sun is responsible for the recent warm up of the Earth, ridiculed the environmentalists and the media for not reporting the truth. “But if you listen to [Canadian environmental activist David] Suzuki and the media, it’s like a tiger chasing its tail. They try to outdo each other and all the while proclaiming that the debate is over but it isn’t — come out to a scientific meeting sometime,” Patterson said. In a separate interview on April 26, 2007 with a Canadian newspaper, Patterson explained that the scientific proof favors skeptics. “I think the proof in the pudding, based on what (media and governments) are saying, (is) we’re about three quarters of the way (to disaster) with the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere,” he said. “The world should be heating up like crazy by now, and it’s not. The temperatures match very closely with the solar cycles.”
Sol - we were in a slight cooling trend prior to the mid-20th century. You claim that we are now “an irrefutable cooling trend” is false.
“So why has Earth regularly switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods in the past million years?” That is what my presenattion is about - and is one of the things covered in paleoclimatology.
“So if orbital changes did cause the recent ice ages to come and go, there must also have been some kind of feedback effect that amplified the changes in temperatures they produced.” That is what I already said. CO2 and ice-albedo are the biggies.
In fact - ice is so important that the presence of Antarctica as a platform was needed to put us into this overall cyclic system. The ‘almost closing’ of the Arctic Ocean was also a major factor. Additionally, closing off the equatorial current with the Isthmus of Panama was important.
Understanding past climates - especially going back even further with different continental alignments, is a lot of fun.
“changes in the output of the sun”
That would have been expected to warm the stratosphere and then the troposphere. The opposite has occurred - the stratosphere has cooled. That is consistent with CO2 forcing rather than external (solar) forcing.
No regular - I do not use either cosmos or gore as my sources. I use the vast majority of climatologists - and also I read what theskeptics say. I am on Heartland’s mailing list so I get their skeptical articles directly from them.
Solar cycles (which are fairly short) are included among the natural forcers on one of the links I provided above. Volcanoes are another ‘cooler’ force.
You forgot positive feedbacks which is a magnifier of energies and natural oscillations like El Nino affect climate.
Stratosphere cooling:
http://www.wunderground.com/education/strato_cooling.asp
“The average surface temperature on Venus is a very toasty 894 ?F! However, Venus’s upper atmosphere is a startling 4-5 times colder than Earth’s upper atmosphere.”
No regular, I did not. You are lying.
As StevenDavis notes - this topic is not amenable to soundbites.
ENSO is another of the natural forcers in the graph I already linked above.
I wasn’t lying, you didn’t mention it. Water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas and is a positive feedback.
Postive feedbacks defined by laws of energy (physics) amplify or direct energies to higher levels, in this case heat.
IPCC has left their computer climate models basically unsound with a pittance of data and little research in methodology figuring out water vapors role in climate change.
Without really understanding water vapor and its physics, the largest greenhouse gas by far, the effects of any climate change alarmism would be irrelevant.
I didn’t mention it does not mean I forgot it. I didn’t mention that day and night alternate either. Or winter and summer.
Yes, they are all there - including water vapor. And including clouds that can be either + or -. And including volcanoes. And including sunspots. And including ENSO.
That is why this does not lend itself to sound bites.
I’m sure I left some more things out of the list above. CH4. N2O.
It is an interesting study.
Ben,
Can you see the pattern in your graph? We are peaking below the highs of the past. To continue that pattern, cooling is in our future. With such radical changes over time, I don’t understand how you can assume that man would have any influence over the established pattern of the last 400,000 years.
“bth
Posted July 15, 2008 at 12:19 pm | Permalink
CO2 is not the only forcer - in fact the Milankovitch cycles were triggered by orbital factors and ice-albedo. CO2 then amplified the effect.”
regular - ‘amplified’ indicates a positive feedback loop. I have frequently mentioned those.
So, your claim that “You forgot positive feedbacks which is a magnifier of energies” is false.
REPLY FROM DR. SUN
“You are right that no data have shown that those biases will not be removed. We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
The message from the Sun et al. study, therefore, is that the models used to make the multi-decadal global climate projections that are reported in the IPCC report are “…that underestimating the negative feedback from cloud albedo and overestimating the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor over the tropical Pacific during ENSO is a prevalent problem of climate models.”
This study indicates that the IPCC models are overpredicting global warming in response to positive radiative forcing.
http://climatesci.org/2008/05/13/tropical-water-vapor-and-cloud-feedbacks-in-climate-models-a-further-assessment-using-coupled-simulations-by-de-zheng-sun-yongqiang-yu-and-tao-zhang/
Sol - cooling MIGHT be in the future several thousand years from now. But not in the ‘near term’ (centuries). In fact, with CO2 as much higher today than an interglacial is higher than a glacial I don’t know that even a complete Milankovitch glaciation cycle would trigger much cooling.
And yes, Sol, I do see the pattern. That is the pattern that has repeated so many times throughout the Holocene.
Sol - enroll in the class. Like I said, soundbites don’t work. My presentation about the glaciation cycles goes through the feedback mechanisms that drove those cycles over the past million years.
Ben,
The commute would kill me. I live in Michigan.
Global warming prediction score card :
Won-Lost-Tied
1-27-4
With a one and twenty seven record, I wouldn’t bet on that horse. Not even with your money ;-b
http://icecap.us/docs/change/GreenhouseWarmingScorecard.pdf
“We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
Note that Dr. Sun does not say the biases are there - just that it is a possibility worth mentioning. He also does not claim that warming is not happening - only that the projections might ‘maybe’ be high.
Other scientists believe they are likely to be low because they UNDERESTIMATE the positive feedbacks of ice-albedo and soil carbon. And, if you add the observed decrease in phytoplankton primary productivity the evidence stronly suggests that the models are too conservative. NOT the other way around.
bth
Posted July 15, 2008 at 1:12 pm | Permalink
“We are just mentioning the possibility that there could be error cancellation as global warming may involve more processes that those in ENSO, and the errors may cancel in such a way that prediction of global warming by these models that have these errors may actually get the answer right. It is just a possibility worth mentioning.”
Note that Dr. Sun does not say the biases are there - just that it is a possibility worth mentioning. He also does not claim that warming is not happening - only that the projections might ‘maybe’ be high.
—————————-
Correct.
Dr. Sun gives his hypothesis on what may be an error derived from his empirical studies.
Dr. Sun does not make blatant claims like climate alarmists who do not yet have all the facts.
Dr. Sun is an empirical scientist, not a politician who uses science as an agenda driven philosophy.
I notice that many of the model predictions used were rather old. Even so - when they predicted warming there was warming - they just missed the point spread. These have gotten much better since the 80s and 90s and are fitting the magnitudes better than they had been doing.
Time will tell. I am still young enough that I will likely see the results of the Great Experiment - at least some of them.
Oh well - back to work (ugh!)
And I am not a politician either …
Ben,
If you that this challenge, you will see that summer temps have trended down 1.82 deg between 1998 and 2007. The winters have trended down 2.53 deg.
Dr. Bush.. The Shrink is IN.
President Bush called on the Democratic-run Congress to follow his example and lift a ban on offshore drilling to help increase domestic oil production.
“I readily concede it won’t produce a barrel of oil tomorrow, but it will reverse the psychology,” Bush told a White House news conference
Chapter 6, Paleo,
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm
‘Greenhouse gases highest for 800,000 years’
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL1440399320080514
“Greenhouse gases are at higher levels in the atmosphere than at any time in at least 800,000 years, according to a study of Antarctic ice on Wednesday that extends evidence that mankind is disrupting the climate.
…
More, and graph of CO2, methane, and temperatures over the past 800,000 years (starts 1000 years from present)
‘Ice cores reveal fluctuations in the Earth’s greenhouse gases’
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-05/uoc-icr050808.php
“Annual 1988 - 2007 Trend = 0.73 degF / Decade”
So, if I take a slightly longer horizon - looking at a rather small part of the globe (the US) - I get a positive slope. Obviously, if I select short periods and small areas I can find negative slopes.
Ben,
My point eing we are currently on a cooling trend.
Sol,
“Cooling”? Read this, and study the graphs.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/08/31/garbage-is-forever
Hank posted July 14, 2008 at 4:41 pm
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/07/open-thread-714/#comment-383521
“I merely posted an email froma scientist. A peer reviewed scientist. No comment or endorsement from me at all.”
Hank, if your daily copy/pastes are “no comment or endorsement from me at all”, why don’t you add a comment stating that at the top of each post?
Add a comment saying that YOU are not making a “comment” by posting your copy/paste.
And state that you neither agree nor disagree with the opinion(s), facts, ideas, etc that you are copy/pasting.
Hank. . . maybe something like this:
“I’m just posting this because someone wrote it.
I have no opinions about it, and will be unable to comment about it.”
“Cooling”? Read this,
An alarmist’s ranting blog. How predictable.
If you look at the date range of recorded temps (not a ranting alarmist blog) for the periods I have given, 1998 to present, the data is quite clear. Temps have fallen from 1998 to present.
If you look at the graph Ben linked to, you will see the warming and cooling trends.
Compare the 8-year temperature trends in the 1980’s and ’90’s to this decade, on graph here,
‘Uncertainty, noise and the art of model-data comparison’
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-and-the-art-of-model-data-comparison
So real climate (the hysterical pollitically motivated blog) has it right and the USHCN Version 2 is wrong.
Gotcha. If the data doesn’t fit the arm flailing, change the data.
Blatant Cherry Picking By Stefan Rahmstorf And Colleagues In Science Magazine
Filed under: Climate Change Metrics, Climate Science Misconceptions, Climate Science Reporting — Roger Pielke Sr. @ 7:00 am
There is an article today in Science Express by Stefan Rahmstorf, Anny Cazenave, John A. Church, James E. Hansen, Ralph F. Keeling, David E. Parker,Richard C. Somerville entitled “Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections” which is remarkably blatant about its cherry picking of papers to support their view and in ignoring peer reviewed papers that do not.
http://climatesci.org/2007/02/02/blatant-cherry-picking-by-stefan-rahmstorf-and-colleagues-in-science-magazine/
We should kill the Blue Whales to save the Earth!!! They are the largest animal on the planet and exhale the most C02. Do your part America, go kill yourself a whale!!! If you really care about the Earth you WILL do it!
Burn, baby, burn…
“and the USHCN Version 2 is wrong.”
———–
I didn’t realise that the topic was U.S. warming, not global warming.
Off the “usual” topic, but I thought this was all too true.
http://politicalirony.com/2008/07/13/if-todays-congress-presided-during-watergate/
Cosmo, if you leave now you can reach the ocean by morning….Think about the Children! Man up and go kill that vile whale!
For the self-respecting
From Michael Bane
http://michaelbane.blogspot.com/2008/07/thought-from-colonel.html
A gun isn’t a magic wand that repels bad guys. Think of it, instead, as a fire extinguisher. If you’re looking to prevent fires in your home, a fire extinguisher isn’t your first purchase. Instead, you analyze your home with an eye toward minimizing fire risks. Is the wiring old and sparking every time you turn on a switch? The solution is new wiring; the fire extinguisher is strictly for secondary protection. BEFORE you make the decision to purchase a gun, you need to study your lifestyle, your home, your family, with an eye on minimizing risks.
snip
To put the fire out, right?
And you have a limited resource to accomplish this; fire extinguishers won’t keep spraying forever. So to maximize the chances that you’re going to be able to extinguish the fire, you direct your limited firefighting resources directly at the center of the fire. You don’t spray around the outside edges of the fire to keep it from spreading—it’s burning a hole through your kitchen floor, after all. You don’t give the right side of the fire a squirt in the hopes that it will quit on its own. You don’t mess around with even a small fire because you understand completely that, unless you act decisively, the fire will destroy your house and maybe even kill you.
This is the mindset we must have when we are in fear for our lives and must act!
Global cooling.
http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/7390_large_hadcrut.jpg
ANTI
Where does the carbon in the CO2 that the whales exhale come from?
Do whales eat fossil-fuels that had been safely sequestered underground for a very long time? /sacarsm OFF
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year’s time. For all four sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn’t itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
Does SolDevVB believe that one month equals a year?
Multi- nic’d ‘Regular’ posted July 15, 2008 at 12:14 pm
“cosmos does not like paleo-climatologists, he says they are wrong, even though they have decades of experience and PhD’s in the subject.
So, one class at WSU wouldn’t help anything to convince cosmos.
If it ain’t the gospel according to the Goracle, it must be wrong.”
—————
Paleo-climatologists are very important to understanding our present climate.
But their knowledge about paleo does not make them credible if/when they make unsupported claims about AGW.
An example:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/minchin-denies-climate-change-manmade/2007/03/14/1173722560417.html
A former CSIRO climate scientist, and now head of a new sustainability institute at Monash University, Graeme Pearman, said Professor Carter was not a credible source on climate change.
“If he has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process,” Dr Pearman said. “That is what the rest of us have to do.” He said he was letting the fossil fuel industry off the hook.
cosmos_originally
Posted July 15, 2008 at 2:11 pm | Permalink
ANTI
Where does the carbon in the CO2 that the whales exhale come from?
Do whales eat fossil-fuels that had been safely sequestered underground for a very long time? /sacarsm OFF
—–
1. Jesus
2. Yes, they do.
Now when you reach the ocean, try to fashion a spear from some driftwood. Then wade out until you see one of the SOB’s and stab it in the eye! We will wait patiently for your return.
I’ll even use your own hysterical blog cosmo…
One approach to forecasting the natural long-term climate trend is to estimate the time constants of response necessary to explain the observed phase relationships between orbital variation and climatic change, and then to use those time constants in the exponential-response model. When such a model is applied to Vernekar’s (39) astronomical projections, the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate (80).
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94
An article has appeared in a recent issue of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics with a curious title “Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.” Wow, that’s a mouthful! Imagine publishing a paper in a respected, peer-reviewed scientific journal in which you predict global cooling over the next few decades? Apparently, the authors were not moved by the 46.6 million websites found when doing a quick search of the internet for “global warming.”
Snip
Zhen-Shan and Xian gathered temperature data for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, and 10 regions in China from 1881 to 2002; the datasets they chose are the same ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They also gathered data for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the same 1881 to 2002 period, and again, they selected the data commonly used by climate scientists throughout the world. Anyone criticizing their conclusions would be hard-pressed to argue that Zhen-Shan and Xian used inappropriate data sets.
snip
They report that “Despite the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the components IMF2, IMF3 and IMF4 of global temperature changes are all in falling” and that “the effect of greenhouse warming is deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate change in the coming 20 years. Consequently, we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/03/16/the-coming-global-cooling/
One person with a firearm could have stopped this. Be sure to read the comments at the bottom of the story.
http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=518548&catid=14
Father badly beaten after trying to protect daughter at Valleyfair
Six men remain in the Scott County jail following what police call a brutal assault on a father trying to protect his daughter.
Shakopee police say as the crowd was leaving Valleyfair Amusement Park around midnight on the 4th of July, the victim’s daughter was confronted by two men.
“The 12-year-old daughter was either touched or slapped in the buttocks area,” Scott County Attorney Patrick Ciliberto said. “The father confronted (the men) by yelling at them for what they had done to his daughter,” he added.
Police say the two men called their friends, who were also in the park. The group of seven men and a juvenile then confronted the father.
“They beat him to the ground and then, the evidence that we have, when he was on the ground, they used their feet on him. They were kicking him in the face when he was down,” Ciliberto said.
According to the criminal complaints, the men were stomping on the 41-year-old father as he lay on the ground, unconscious.
He suffered severe head injuries, including a fractured right orbital bone and possible subdural bleeding on the brain. “We don’t know if there are permanent injuries yet,” the County Attorney said.
Shakopee Police found the suspects in the parking lot. Seven of them were arrested and one man ran from the scene and police are still looking for him. Of the seven taken into custody, one was a 14-year-old.
The six adults charged and held in jail are Devondre Evans-Lewis, Andrew Shannon, Darris Evans, Terry Arnold, Derry Evans, and Anthony Gildersleeve.
The Scott County Attorney says several of the men have criminal histories and they are all from the Twin Cities metro area. They range in age from 18 to 22-years-old.
All six adults have been charged with 3rd degree felony assault causing substantial bodily harm.
“We should kill the Blue Whales to save the Earth!!!”
No can do. My arms are still too tired from beating on the baby seals.
#
cosmos_originally
Posted July 15, 2008 at 1:42 pm | Permalink
Hank posted July 14, 2008 at 4:41 pm
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/07/open-thread-714/#comment-383521
“I merely posted an email froma scientist. A peer reviewed scientist. No comment or endorsement from me at all.”
Hank, if your daily copy/pastes are “no comment or endorsement from me at all”, why don’t you add a comment stating that at the top of each post?
Add a comment saying that YOU are not making a “comment” by posting your copy/paste.
And state that you neither agree nor disagree with the opinion(s), facts, ideas, etc that you are copy/pasting.
Hank. . . maybe something like this:
“I’m just posting this because someone wrote it.
I have no opinions about it, and will be unable to comment about it.”
_____________________________________________________________
cosmos, son!
Really! I should actually make a comment to the fact that I am posting with ‘no comment’!
Are you really that incredibly stupid?
MOst of the stuff I post or link to I do because they interest me. Some of it I agree with and some of it I post just because it’s a different take on a subject that you won’t find in the MSM.
Some of it I post just to drive you nuts. (a very short drive by the way)
You would be better served if you merely addressed your comments to the content of my links instead of using them to defame mebased on what you assume I believe.
I believe you are a nut, that’s all you need to know for sure!
fleettwood
Posted July 15, 2008 at 2:35 pm | Permalink
“We should kill the Blue Whales to save the Earth!!!”
No can do. My arms are still too tired from beating on the baby seals.
——
Thanks for doing your part Fleettwood, at least those baby bastards seals won’t be spewing toxic C02 into the atmosphere any more. We must think of the children!
MonkeyHawk,
No links for your information?
Let me guess, you pulled it off some anti-gun website.
Potential victims turned tables on robbery suspects
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-local_robbery_0710jul10,0,2217867.story
“NEWPORT NEWS - An armed-robbery suspect was shot by his potential victim Tuesday, the second time in a week where the tables were quickly turned, police said.”
Hank posted July 14, 2008 at 4:41 pm
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/07/open-thread-714/#comment-383521
“No comment or endorsement from me at all.”
SolDevVB,
Thank you for the 2:25 pm post,
‘Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years!?!
Category: septic tripe’
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/08/multiscale_analysis_of_global.php
Cosmo, those whales aren’t going to kill themselves. I suggest you get going.
God speed Cosmo, God speed.
“We must think of the children!”
Daddy drinks because you cry.
Well, lets start off with the nearly-ad-homs: the English is in places terrible, although better than my Chinese.
If you can’t refute the science, attack the scientists.
If the data doesn’t fit the arm flailing, delete the data.
Congratulations cosmo. You followed the pattern perfectly. Here is your gold star.
fleettwood
Posted July 15, 2008 at 2:55 pm | Permalink
“We must think of the children!”
Daddy drinks because you cry.
—-
Yes, and he shares.
A Russian scientist predicts a period of global cooling in coming decades, followed by a warmer interval.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov expects a repeat of the period known as the Little Ice Age. During the 16th century, the Baltic Sea froze so hard that hotels were built on the ice for people crossing the sea in coaches.
The Little Ice Age is believed to have contributed to the end of the Norse colony in Greenland, which was founded during an interval of much warmer weather.
Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.
“The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off until better times,” he said. “The global temperature maximum has been reached on Earth, and Earth’s global temperature will decline to a climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol.”
http://www.physorg.com/news75818795.html