“The good news for McCain is that this year he has consistently run ahead of his party,†columnist E.J. Dionne wrote. “The bad news is that the GOP is in such a deep hole McCain may not be able to climb out. When voters in a recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll were asked, without candidates’ names, which party they wanted in the White House, Democrats had a 16-point lead. But when they were asked to choose between Obama and McCain, Obama led by only six points.â€
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61 Comments
So the Republics as a party have a less-than majority ceiling in this next election (if Ds lead Rs by 16, then the maximum support Rs can have is 42% — that’s the less-than majority ceiling I’m talking about). If the Republics want to win, and they do, then they’re forced to go drive the Ds below 42%.
Unfortunately for us all, this can end up only one way. A political party can only accomplish such a thing in so short a time by going radically negative on the other party. In fact, they can’t accomplish that against a political party in so short a time (unless the D “brand” commits some kind of seppuku between now and November), so they’ll have to go negative on the party’s representative. To wit, Barack Obama.
The article in the OP explains why stories about Obama and his wife are exploding: the Rs are willing to crank up Swift Boat 2008 in order to drive Obama below 42%. They must accomplish this to win.
The question is, are they able?
THAT depends on all of us, of course. Will Americans allow the Republics to use their Swift Boat machine again?
I think there is MUCH more ugliness to come.
I guess I am still a Republican for the same reason that I am a fan of the Minami Dolphins. We keep losing the big games, even when we lead in the league we end up blowing it and fall back to being a mediocre team. The different and the one that makes even me wonder why I am still a Republican. Is the Dolphins as bad as they can be are not known to cheat and lie to get to the Super Bowl. I do try to not be amoral in my thought process, I am more offend then the Democratic when some of the made up smears are flashed over the airwaves. Particular when the smears are so brainless that anyone with more then two brain cells can see they are plain stupid.
But then that bring into question the relative intelligence of my species. For the brainless smears seem to work better then a reasonable person should fall for. At times I think the great enemy of the human race is not Iran with a nuclear weapon but our own collective stupidity.
As the Democrats re-unify behind Obama that spread (between 16 and 6 points will close. Now, if the Democrats can further exploit this situation by fielding quality ‘down-ballot’ candidates this can REALLY be an historic election. I’d love to see Democrats sweep Republics out of Congress and State Legislatures as well.
The more I see and hear McCain the more I don’t like his ideas, it’s the same shortsighted, “tell them what they want to hear” talking down to us like we’re a bunch of morons, Bush style. Most Americans are above that and smart enough to see that the last 8 yrs have been a disaster for our country. We’ve had enough.
Writerdog: remember frank zappa’s law:
The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.
dennis
“I think there is MUCH more ugliness to come.”
To quote Dave, “Ya think?”
I’m a phins fan too writerdog, even through the miserable hard times. “Our” one win last season was a great moment in my book even thought the season was a unquestioned disaster. Also loved seeing the Patriots (AFC East rival) loose their would be perfect season in the Superbowl.
Moving on from south FLorida football,
Republican ideas are actually the best for this Country. Ideologically, most of the people you work next to and live next to are Republicans. Personally, I don’t come into contact with anybody who can explain to me face to face why democratic ideals are better for the long term health of our society and country.
This blog is the only source of democrats that I have access too.
Many naive but Republican minded voters may vote Democrat this cycle since they believe that a vote for “change” is a vote for something of an improvement.
These people have not analyzed the causation for why things are the way they are.
The rise of the big government, moral equivalent Democrat will do nothing but make things even worse.
Jimmy Carter ran as a “change” candidate and it gave us Reagan and Bush Sr.
Obama will be Carter on steriods.
I look forward to the Republicans using as many dirty tricks as they are capable of. Dredge up the insignificant, the inconsequential, hammer it home, say the words repeatedly and allow them to come out with a snarl, then repeat the charges and accusations using new words, overandover for emphasis.
karma
I think this is the year those tactics will backfire.
If they try to tout their positives, it will be a quiet campaign. Keep the camera focused on McCain, never turn off the microphone. McCain will be his own undoing and with nasty help it won’t take as long.
More ugliness to come?
Oh you have no idea.
What is it you call it kfg? “The right wing Wurlitzer”?
We have the perfect storm a brewin’.
The cons are like a cornered, wounded animal. They are going to lose and lose big and they know it. SO they will only act worse.
The big mantra on rant radio now is that if ONLY cons would be more conny, why surely they would win!
Maybe if they hit themselves in the head with a hammer a few more times, it won’t hurt anymore.
That, and their base hatreds have been brought into play. A black man is a candidate for President. Gay marriage is becoming a fact. Cheap gasoline is no longer a given.
You can smell the fear of…….change.
It is Obama’s election to lose and McCain’s to survive.
Obama will need to show more of the unknown. Americans fear THAT more than bad they already know.
In 2004 polls indicated that 55% of Americans considered themselves to be Republicans. In the most recent poll I saw for the upcoming general election about 36% of Americans considered themselves to be Republicans. That’s a really big change in four years. When was another time numbers about social, political, ideological identity change that much? So, when polls report that “registered Republicans” or “registered Deomcrats” favor something in particular, what does that mean about the America public as a whole?
Oh, in that recent poll of political parties Democrats hadn’t changed much. They were still in the 30%s. Undecideds were at about 24%. I cite the poll for you if I could remember what one it was.
Oh and, explain to me how it is that a family holding a quarter of a million dollars in credit card debt, and comfortable with that, isn’t “elitist” compared to the ordinary American. The McCain family is not running out to the debt control specialist or consolidating their debt to be able to make their monthly payments. They’re not counting on the equity in their home(s) to get them flush month to month. They’re, or his wife and kid, is just out plunking down the ol’ plastic to get whatever floats their boat or amuses them in the moment. I don’t know any ordinary, hardworking Americans who are doing that.
I just see this awful, deluded spectre of Bush rising up in John McCain and the American people deciding once again that John McCain is one of them and he’s the guy they’d want to drink a beer with at a backyard barbeque.
John McCain went from being fifth from the bottom of his class at the Naval Academy to marrying – oop, remarrying well. As effective as he is a making a scene, John McCain is just not a stand out candidate.
Can McCain’s handlers hide Johnny’s temper as well as they did Dubya’s?
CK, and YOUNGER voters lean even more to the democratic party!
We have seen the future. It doesnt look good for the cons, but I dont expect them to be subdued without a bloody fight.
In 2000, the GOP successfully painted Bush as a “regular guy” despite the fact that he is everything but.
Now, they are working hard to promote McCain as a jovial man with a great self-depreciating sense of humor.
It’s not going to work. McCain and his belligerence and temper are well known. It is only a matter of time before Johnny blows his stack while being filmed. It may happen during a debate. It may happen at a campaign stop. It may happen at a town hall meeting. It is going to happen and it with be hilarious to watch the Republicans try to spin it.
It is going to happen.
Gotta go. Back later.
Ya know what really gets me with McCain?
The whole “my friends” bit.
It’s “my friends this” “my friends that”. Not just done but done to death.
Geez Senator, you’re not my friend. We haven’t met!
What you wanna be my friend? I don’t think you’d make the cut.
I can just see us hanging out having a beer and then you tell me about your first wife.
At that point, I probably put down my beer, look you in the eye and say something like, “Dude? NOT cool.”
Then you pick up my beer bottle and hit me in the head with it. Later, you’re screaming at my kid to get off your lawn.
I have friends in low places. But even I have standards.
Re: McCain and “My Friends” –
I’ve written before about the 96-year-old lady who lives up the block. What a hoot!
She’s highly independent unless she really has to get somewhere and calls for a ride, like to the polls or to renew her non-driver’s license ID card.
Last weekend I baked too many shortcakes and had too many strawberries so I took some to her. She was delighted but insisted I eat half of it with her. *
* As a tangent. We got to discussing how to divide the shortcake “fairly.” She said, like the terrific Mom she must have been back in the 40s or so ago, “One of us slices it, the other gets his pick. I sliced it down the middle (more or less) and she took the bigger “half.”
Anyway, she got to talking about John Sidney McCain the Third’s (for Shrub’s 3rd term) use of “My friends….”
“It’s a Roosevelt wannabe tactic!” said my friend.
She went off on a story about being fresh out of college in 1933 and the world falling apart around her. And, all of a sudden, there was FDR on the radio not orating or speachifying or bloviating; “He called us ‘my friends!’”
I’ve come to suspect the whole “My friends” tic in McSame’s speeches is a sop to his Momma, same age as my neighbor.
Just a theory.
“In 2000, the GOP successfully painted Bush as a “regular guy” despite the fact that he is everything but.”
And now it’s “which candidate would you like to have a barbecue with.”
McCain is anything but a regular guy. How many regular guys do you see having a rich wife who owns 7 homes. A “regular” guy couldn’t become POTUS.
The republican party has been dead long enough to really stink; they’re just too stupid to lie down. If McCane is trying to dig himself out of his party’s grave, then it’s the duty of every American who values his sense of smell to start shoveling more dirt on him!
“Jed” inspires us with –
“If McCane is trying to dig himself out of his party’s grave, then it’s the duty of every American who values his sense of smell to start shoveling more dirt on him!”
Maybe not.
McSame is a worm. He THRIVES in dirt.
I don’t think there should be a commercial produced that dramatizes Mc(in)Sane calling his second wife a trollop and a c*nt.
Just ‘cuz he’s crazy doesn’t mean McBush couldn’t be a great president! Look at… I dunno, Franlin Pierce?
(He and McCain were friends in prep school, I think.)
Reality is torturing McCain these day worse than he ever experienced in Hanoi.
(But, it being a “Hilton,” Paris is protected from a tax increase.)
Monk,
“McSame is a worm. He THRIVES in dirt.”
Then he’ll just love that big rock that’s being dropped on the hole. The one that has “Whig,” “Know-Nothing,” “Bull Moose,” and a newly sandblasted “Republican” on the front of it.
There may be some truth in what you guys say. Considering the source, I think it’s a little overdone. Granted, some really bad leadership has taken over the GOP. They’re not really representative of the majority of true conservatives in this country. Sure, there’s the lunatics who post here, but face it, they’re the fringe (kinda like the lefties who post here).
Fact is, GOP leadership over the last 7 years has really screwed this country up, the house needs to be cleaned, and the party of heartlessness, save the rich, and screw everybody else needs to spend about 40 years in the wilderness for the mess they’ve made. The GOP in it’s current incarnation has seriously damaged our country.
That said, never underestimate the talent Democrats have for losing an election. Bad news for McCain? Time will tell.
I disagree with Mr. Brownlee; I believe at least some of the Democrats can think for themselves, and have seen what’s happened to the U.S. Economy since the Dems took over the majority in Congress. Only the foolish would consider allowing them to have total control.
Nanno,
For being about eight years late and a whole bunch of neurons short, maybe you are beginning to see some light. To make it official though, you owe Farm Gal one hell of an apology!
#
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
Nanno,
For being about eight years late and a whole bunch of neurons short, maybe you are beginning to see some light. To make it official though, you owe Farm Gal one hell of an apology!
Jed, There’ll be an apology just as soon as Butch apologizes to the Christians she takes such joy in persecuting.
Oh! But that’s different!
Yeah, right.
Oh you poor persecuted christians! You’ve been bent out of shape ever since they made you stop burning witches and heretics! Go find another shoulder to cry on.
#
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 7:57 pm | Permalink
Oh you poor persecuted christians! You’ve been bent out of shape ever since they made you stop burning witches and heretics! Go find another shoulder to cry on.
Oh you poor persecuted homosexuals! You’ve been bent out of shape ever since they wouldn’t recognize you as normal! Go find another shoulder to cry on.
As I said, that’s different.
Hypocrite
Y’know, it’s christians like you that make me wish the Roman Emperors had finished the job they started. I will admit to having known some pretty decent christians, but they would have been decent people no matter what their religion.
By the way, I don’t recall mentioning my sexual orientation one way or another. But don’t worry, whatever it is, you’ll certainly be safe!
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 8:11 pm | Permalink
Y’know, it’s christians like you that make me wish the Roman Emperors had finished the job they started.
Gee Jed, do you want to kill me?
“By the way, I don’t recall mentioning my sexual orientation one way or another. But don’t worry, whatever it is, you’ll certainly be safe!”
OUCH. That Jed is sure one funny sumbitch, ah tell yew whut.
As for Free Ride, it’s been shocking, though not surprising, the see the media lovefest continue with the fabricated image they know as Straight Talk.
As I posted a couple of days ago (and as others have posted since), the story of Carol McCain got a good amount of press in the U.K: not a peep here. But it is indicative how John McCain dumped the woman who stayed true to him while he was in Hanoi because she had become a burden, in favor of one who could finance his political ambitions.
Here’s the link to the story of Carol McCain that has yet to see the light of day in the U.S. media:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1024927/The-wife-John-McCain-callously-left-behind.html
And the takeaway line from Ross Perot:
“But Ross Perot, who paid her medical bills all those years ago, now believes that both Carol McCain and the American people have been taken in by a man who is unusually slick and cruel – even by the standards of modern politics.
‘McCain is the classic opportunist. He’s always reaching for attention and glory,’ he said.
‘After he came home, Carol walked with a limp. So he threw her over for a poster girl with big money from Arizona. And the rest is history.’”
Nano,
Play the victim much?
Dance Poodles, dance!
Thanks for having my back guys!
Nan,
“Gee Jed, do you want to kill me?”
Is that an offer? I wouldn’t force some poor lion to eat you, that’d poison him!
Ya know Monkeyhawk? You’re right.
FDR did use “My friends” a lot. Not as much as McCain though. And from FDR in that stately voice of his, it sounded believable. Even sincere.
From McCain it sounds like it would from a used car salesman.
“My friends, come on down to McCain’s previously used vehicles. Let me get you into this little seven year old beauty. It’s one owner and was only ever driven in one direction.”
#
CF2K
Posted June 14, 2008 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
Nano,
Play the victim much?
Only when it pushes some dimbulb’s buttons.
Jed, Boo Boo, try to concentrate. I asked a very simple question.
Do you want to kill me?
(extra points for a simple yes/no answer)
Hey Nano…you one of those freaks at HLP’s church that packs heat just in case they need to kill somebody?
(extra points for a simple yes/no)
Farm Gal,
No problem at all! His remarks were absolutely uncalled-for.
Nan,
Nope. I wouldn’t grieve if you did it to yourself though. Cigarettes are the most socially acceptable way.
#
KansasNative
Posted June 14, 2008 at 9:27 pm | Permalink
Hey Nano…you one of those freaks at HLP’s church that packs heat just in case they need to kill somebody?
(extra points for a simple yes/no)
No
(see how easy that was?)
#
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
Nan,
Nope. I wouldn’t grieve if you did it to yourself though. Cigarettes are the most socially acceptable way.
Like most of your kind, you want someone else to do your dirty-work.
Nan,
Well, in your case it would definitely be dirty work.
Dance poodle, dance!
#
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 9:47 pm | Permalink
Nan,
Well, in your case it would definitely be dirty work.
Jed, what a typically clever comeback. My statement still stands.
Farm Gal,
I don’t think that poodle even knows it’s dancing. Thinks it’s reaching for a doggy treat.
#
ksfarmgrrl
Posted June 14, 2008 at 9:49 pm | Permalink
Dance poodle, dance!
Butch, with an attitude like that, it’s pretty obvious why you aren’t married!
Oops, never mind….
“Nan,
Nope. I wouldn’t grieve if you did it to yourself though. Cigarettes are the most socially acceptable way.”
A huge fat belly and no excercise will do it for you, too.
You know what I’m talking about, don’t you?
All we have to do is educate the voters as to which candidate is a Dem.!
Nan,
You referenced my kind a couple posts up, and you haven’t got a clue what my kind is. So, if martyrdom is really your only chance at heaven, post your real name, description and address and I’ll put you on the list, but being it’s an election year there are a whole lot of people ahead of you.
The John McCain theater of the absurd just gets more and more bizarre. Now he’s brandishing failed Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in an increasingly desperate effort to attract “disgruntled” Hillary Clinton supporters–specifically, female ones. How patronizing is THAT?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080615/pl_nm/usa_politics_mccain_fiorina_dc
Given that Fiorina bungled away half of HP’s value, her endorsement doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in McCain’s judgment in business advisors. Then there was THIS notorious statement that Fiorina spent LOTS of time trying to “clarify”:
“On January 7, 2004, at a meeting with Congressional members, Fiorina said, “There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore. We have to compete for jobs as a nation.”[16][17][18] Her statements angered Bay Area workers who felt that low wages overseas encouraged corporations to use less-qualified offshore workers instead of well-qualified locals.[19] Fiorina responded to this criticism by publishing a clarifying op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carly_Fiorina
If McCain wants to surround himself with elitist, tone-deaf, and stupid representatives of the “managerial” class, who are Democrats to disagree? The guy can’t stop shooting himself in the foot.
Jed, is that a threat?
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
Nan,
You referenced my kind a couple posts up, and you haven’t got a clue what my kind is.
Let me take a guess then.
You’re a fat old guy, bald with a fringe of long gray hair and in failing health. Baby killing is ok with you.
How am I doing?
Farm Gal,
I’m truly sorry there are people like that in the world.
Nan,
“Jed, is that a threat?”
No, it was an offer to put you out of the obvious misery you’re in. Since you couldn’t stand to live to see the black guy win the election or a gay person to actually get a right or two, I made the offer to do the only humane thing. If you want on the list you need to give me your information before the list gets bigger. It’s the busy season.
And yeah, I’m an old bald guy, and I managed to get to be an old bald guy by not putting up with shit from christian asses (they talk, y’know).
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
Since you couldn’t stand to live to see the black guy win the election or a gay person to actually get a right or two, I made the offer to do the only humane thing.
Jed,
I’ll probably vote for the black guy and gays have the same rights I do.
Nan,
Steady there, you’re slipping!
#
Jed
Posted June 14, 2008 at 11:06 pm | Permalink
Nan,
Steady there, you’re slipping!
And you should be getting a lot of exercise, what with all that jumping to conclusions.
About par for your case.
Nan,
If you’ve had second thoughts and want to back out of our arrangement, you don’t need to try to convince me you’re reforming, just don’t send the info. I won’t be hurt, I’ve booked plenty of work clear through October.
Give me your address and I’ll drop by.
Nan,
I do that and you’ll all show up at once! If you want me to do it you’ll just have to wait your turn like the others.
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