Especially with Hillary Clinton having cleaned Barack Obama’s clock in Puerto Rico, Kentucky and West Virginia, her assertion that she “is winning the popular vote†sounds persuasive. But the Washington Post’s Fact Checker blog gives it two Pinocchio noses, arguing “the claim itself is essentially meaningless.†Among other things, it relies on counting all the votes she got in Florida and Michigan and not counting either the 230,000 uncommitted voters in Michigan, where Obama wasn’t on the ballot, or the caucus participants in Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington. Also, winning the popular vote has meaning in some contests, but it doesn’t in the Democratic primary system.
Registered?
Commenting on WE Blog now requires you to be a Kansas.com member. Use the links above to register, if you haven't already, or to log in.Contact us
Follow us
Daily Archives
-
Recent Comments
- Regular on ACORN stole election?
- Phantom on Open thread 11/21
- CapnAmerica on ACORN stole election?
- CapnAmerica on ACORN stole election?
- Phantom on Open thread 11/21
- Phantom on ACORN stole election?
- CapnAmerica on ACORN stole election?
- CapnAmerica on ACORN stole election?
- CapnAmerica on ACORN stole election?
- janeeyre on Bad timing on mammogram recommendation
67 Comments
Say what you will about the DNC’s Florida and Michigan primary decision–which I think is about as fair as one can expect under the circumstances–but the Clinton campaign clearly has some funny math going on with regard to not counting the caucus states Rhonda named above.
Regardless, word is that this thing may well be coming to an end tomorrow night–or not, with Senator Clinton announcing a major speech in New York.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/02/clinton-summons-top-donor_n_104715.html
Given Rep. Clyburn’s endorsement of Barack Obama, and Tom Vilsack’s urging for Senator Clinton to quit the race, this may be the week that was, as it were.
Thats her thing…out right lies or shading the truth thats all she has going for her.
There is no pretending about it, she has the popular vote right now. Obama was given way too much leverage. And yes, it’ll be over for Clinton now. And you who support Obama better hope to God he can pull it off or I’ll never let you people forget it.
Now to be fair if you do count everyone who voted for Clinton it is the most votes for Clinton!
If you count everyone whom voted in 2008 and 1996 and in 1994 for Clinton its a win!
Political_mama posted June 2, 2008 at 7:43 pm
“There is no pretending about it, she has the popular vote right now.”
———-
Wow! Clinton leads by 8 tenths of ONE percent using the MI case, where Obama was not on the ballot.
But Obama leads by 4 tenths of ONE pecent if the unofficial count from 4 caucus states is included.
It’s a meaningless, irrelevant statistical tie.
It’s hard to understand why Clinton even made an ad about it. Desperation? Hope that the superdelegates would rush to her?
Stats,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
I am sorry, but there is no way that ANYONE can could the Michigan votes since Obama was NOT even on the ballot.
Despite Hillary’s claim that “it was his choice” they all agreed in writing before the fact that the votes would not count.
Hillary can play these games, ignore the caucuses, ignore the fact that Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, ignore her written pledge, but she is not fooling anyone.
Game, set, match.
Obama.
And if he loses, you will be kissing my a from here to eternity.
I will be more than a little bitter about it. Count on it.
Hey mama, If Bambi loses all those 1/2 folks from Florida and Michigan are gonna be about a mad as you are. Too bad some of them have dropped from being worth 3/5 down to 1/2.
So much for “counting every vote”.
P_Mom,
Is your comment the first indication of how the Dem party is going to pull together and end this ridiculous division? If so, it’s going to be a long, hard road to the WH for the Dems.
AlanB,
From some articles I read from earlier this year, the voters in Michigan were angry that their “state” had forced the early vote, and they were blaming the Republicans. Now, I’m not convinced that last was totally fair, but those were the comments I read.
I hope Senator Clinton keeps her options open.
She IS the best candidate. Obama is unlikely to win in the fall. And even if he could?
I think if he wins, lots of folks lose. And no Republicans among them.
But if Senator Clinton chooses to be more diplomatic and practical than Obama and SOME of his supporters have been? IF she chooses to support him?
I for one want Obama on all fours kissing her feet and giving her whatever she asks for. Failing that? I not only will not support Obama but will work against him.
‘Sources: Senate superdelegates will throw support to Obama‘
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/02/superdelegates/?iref=hpmostpop
“Most of the 17 Democratic senators who are uncommitted superdelegates will endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president this week, sources told CNN Monday.”
Your appetite for destruction is SO misdirected cosmos.
IF Obama is the nominee, I hope his enemy identification, and yours improves.
Some of the most VIRULENTLY infected Obama supporters have thanked me for keeping me ear to the right wing.
Well the latest noise from there is that they have a tape of Michelle or Barack that they are sitting on.
Is it true? I don’t know.
But given we find out so little about Obama until so late makes me afraid of what else falls out of Obama’s closet.
It is the Democrats best interest and America’s best interest for the nomination process to go to the convention.
I don’t WANT the role of saying “I told you so” in 7 months OR 30 months.
But as bush advised Gore in mid December 2000, I gotta do what I have to do.
BlueJay,
So relevant news = an “appetite for destruction”?
Like “ideas” can only = “GOOD ideas”?
Like reducing childrens health insurance costs in the future = parents today are “irresponsible” if they cannot afford today’s VERY high costs?
I for one want Obama on all fours kissing her feet and giving her whatever she asks for.
Why? What has Hillary done to deserve feet kissing? I just don’t see it. Not that she doesn’t deserve respect, as do many, but feet kissing? Man, the hatred is rampant. Why not direct it where it should be, if it needs to exist at all? Go after McCain. If you don’t (and this includes all disgruntled one candidate only backers), you will be the major cause of continued division within the party.
You do realize that even those on here who don’t like McCain much will vote for him, right? It’s been a vote-for-the-lesser-evil for a long, long time. Why screw it up now and end up with someone that will be absolutely NO GOOD for the country?
Having watched my share of bitterly contested primaries, I’m not worried about the party’s ability to pull together behind whatever ticket is decided at the convention. Add to that the last eight years of republican military debacle and its squandering of its reputation as fiscally conservative, and no democrat is going to desert over the nominee. I would also bet that those on the fence won’t to be able to hold their noses long enough to vote for McSame. He’ll be left with Bushie’s hard core 28% and the few he can bullshit into thinking he’s something different than same-old same-old.
Obama has already won the nomination; any true Democrat can see a Republican disguise.
I don’t know I am hearing a plopping sound, could it be the sound of defeat being pulled from the jaws of victory?
It has been interesting seeing the divide in the Democratic party and on what lines.
Between those wanting to keep the status quo of partisan fighting going and those wanting to stop it.
The Republican party is going through the same thing but behind the scenes for the most part.
I’m speaking figuratively Pre.
The media love affair for Obama has been absolutely shameful. In MSNBC, he has an entire network that should be named after him.
Last night Olberman was making light of Senator Clinton and her supporters.
That has been the whole tone of this bulldozer campaign. Get on the bus to who knows where or they’ll drive that bus over you.
Officially, this race isn’t over til August. But Obamaniacs have been trying to call it for months.
Speaking just for myself and the Clinton supporters I know, we don’t trust Obama. He would have an awful lot of making up to do to get our vote. That starts by paying Senator Clinton her due respect and granting her anything she asks for.
Obama won the nomination on Super Tuesday back in February. That’s when he took a commanding lead that Clinton could not surmount.
It’s been over for a long time.
But finally tomorrow we’ll be able to close the door on the Clinton’s and their DLC wing of the Democratic party.
Lead? In what?
Red states no Democrat can win in the fall?
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, etc AND the popular vote and Senator Clinton is supposed to quit because Barack impressed some people in…
Kansas?
Fight on Hillary!
Apparently, Terry McAuliffe said on the “Today” show that if Barack Obama reaches the magic delegate number of 2,118, that Hillary Clinton will concede.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/mcauliffe_if_obama_gets_magic.php
BlueJay,
As for the supposed nuclear tape regarding Michelle Obama supposedly railing against “Whitey,” what’s she’s actually saying–and what makes sense in the context–is “why’d he” with reference to Bush.
Try to imagine, if you will, Michelle Obama seriously making the following statements
“Whitey cut folks off Medicaid?
Whitey let New Orleans drown?
Whitey do nothing about Jena?
Whitey put us in Iraq for no reason?”
…when what she said, with reference to George W. Bush, was,
“Why’d he cut folks off Medicaid?
Why’d he let New Orleans drown?
Why’d he do nothing about Jena?
Why’d he put us in Iraq for no reason?”
boomantribune.com
If Republicans want to mount an October Surprise that consists of ridiculing the way Black folks talk, they can be my guest. They’ll get fleetwood’s vote–and that’s about it. More damningly, it’ll cement their standing as the preferred party of white racists across America. The blowback won’t be worth it.
If Rorschach racism is Repukes have got, bring it on.
CYNTHIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Famous Quote by Mark Twain
“It is better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.”
Denver!
Hillary Clinton wins South Dakota!
Not yet Barack. Not yet!
CF the Michelle Obama tape is the least of his worries by my count.
He has admitted bomber terrorists as friends.
He had a wacko preacher who preached hate at him for 20 years.
He is friends and business partners with a mob guy who is currently on trial.
And now he has been active in a Palestian group that is sending money to support hamas and is very anti Israel.
What else will we see about Obama before the election?
South Dakota (preliminary)
Clinton — 8 delegates
Obama — 5 delegates
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
Number of delegates needed to win: 2,118
Obama — 2,140 (Hint, that is > 2,118)
Clinton — 1,925 (< 2,118)
Those results are not official til the convention there cosmos.
Senator Clinton has asked for her supporters to tell her what to do.
I’ll be writing her to fight on.
I listened to both candidates speak tonight. Hillary Clinton was inspiring.
Obama left me cold.
And I CONTINUE to hope that Senator Clinton fights it to and through the convention.
But.
I sense something new. Word is afoot that she wants to be VP. And Obama commented that she would be at the center of health care reform and energy independence.
More?
Earlier word had it that Senator Clinton would attack bush and McSame.
But Obama did that. While Clinton asked her supporters what she should do….
I think Senator Clinton is willing and maybe even eager to be a VP in the same role as Dick Cheney. Obama KNOWS he needs her. He wants to play nice cop. She prefers tough cop.
I think they may be setting something up.
I’M ok with presiding Obama while Senator Clinton holds his hand and does the dirty work.
Lead? In what?
Red states no Democrat can win in the fall?
The truth is, as usual, more nuanced.
Obama won Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Maine, Vermont, Maryland, Delaware and DC–all blue states.
Clinton took California, New York, Massachusetts,
New Jersey, and Rhode Island–all states where polls show, incidently, Obama cleaning McCain’s clock.
A better argument (a defensible one, at least), is that Clinton won more “purple” states: Ohio, Pennsylvanis, New Hampshire and West Virginia, whereas Obama only won Iowa. Polls show Obama struggling to hold onto Ohio and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia is a lost cause.
At the same time, he’s leading McCain in Colorado and New Mexico and tied in Indiana and Virginia.
It’s complicated. And it would be a mistake to conclude on this kind of analogy alone that either candidate would do better in the general election. A primary campaign, by definition, divides candidates on very different issues than we’ll be seeing in the fall.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jun03.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
Update to 10:22 pm post,
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
Number of delegates needed to win: 2,118
Obama — 2,154 (was 2,140)
Clinton — 1,923 (was 1,925)
Stick with me cosmos.
I’ll teach you how to fight.
Just like Senator Clinton is going to teach Obama how to fight.
Rage posted June 3, 2008 at 10:45 pm
“Clinton took California,..”
Times changes things…
‘Californians Would Switch Clinton Vote For Obama’
http://cbs5.com/politics/poll.clinton.obama.2.720136.html
“While voters in the California Democratic Presidential Primary backed Clinton by a 10-point margin, a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if given the chance to vote again, Californians would choose Barack Obama by a 6-point margin, 49%-43%. ”
———–
Two other factors:
* Campaigns need money — Obama has been better at raising it, and a lot of it was small donations from a large # of people.
* Getting a Democrat into the White House is only half the battle. Democratic bills wont easily pass in Congress with a half ‘blue’, half ‘red’ U.S..
Obama probably has a better chance at making ‘red’ states more purple, and ‘purple’ states more ‘blue’.
BlueJay,
Obama knows how to fight. He beat Clinton in the primary.
And Obama has been on the offensive re McCain’s comments on the GI bill, the # of U.S. troops in Iraq, his “great progress economically”, and others.
You are a good guy cosmos.
But I’ve observed that you are kind of politically naive.
You bring facts and science and passion here.
But you won’t fight.
Now that is a different sort of a strength in a way. It differs you from most bloggers.
But we are up against some damned hard headed people. You can’t bring them facts and get them to think.
You have to smack them over the head with what you have.
Let me ask you. Would you be comfortable with an Obama Clinton administration in the same vein as we have seen bush cheney?
Just out of curiosity, how does one refuse to concede even though your opponent has mathematically clinched the nomination?
Obama has the numbers, why isn’t Clinton being gracious and conceding to his victory?
“Obama knows how to fight. He beat Clinton in the primary.”
Uh huh.
In places where no Democrat can win.
SO he can win in the house of the enemy against a friend?
And this is a strength?
And you didn’t answer my question about Hillary as Dick Cheney style VP.
Do you mean his victories in Kansas, Idaho, and Montana there WS?
Senator Clinton won where Democrats have to win.
All she is demanding for her and her supporters is respect and that Obama embrace political reality.
COUNT Michigan
And Obama DEMANDED that delegates be stolen from Clinton there…
But count Michigan and Senator Clinton wins the popular vote. LEAVE out Michigan, which no Democrat can win without, and Obama and Clinton are statistically tied as to popular vote.
The popular vote is important isn’t it?
IF Senator Clinton wants the VP? Obama can welcome her. OR she can take it OR the Presidential nomination at the convention.
I think Senator Clinton and Obama have it worked out. She will be the VP or she fights on.
Obama can only lose from here.
“Obama embrace political reality”
The political reality is that Obama is the nominee and Clinton lost.
And Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan, along with Edwards, Richardson and Biden.
The the popular vote is just part of the process – the caucuses count also.
Uh huh.
In places where no Democrat can win.
Jay: I’m really trying to be fair here. Clinton’s electoral map does currently look better than Obama’s:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
Why persist making a transparently silly argument, particularly when I just refuted it above (without even really trying)?
http://blogs.kansas.com/weblog/2008/06/clinton-shading-truth-on-popular-vote/#comment-362552
If you pursue that course WS. And if your candidate does as well.
He will lose at the convention or in 40 states in November.
The popular vote is important isn’t it?
Yeah, it is. Any statistics on the popular support in the caucus states?
“Clinton’s electoral map does currently look better than Obama’s”
I agree. Your point?
“He will lose at the convention or in 40 states in November.”
There is no chance in Hell that he will lose at the convention – absolutely none.
And he will win in November – the popular vote and the electoral college vote.
Easily.
I agree. Your point?
This is acheived by picking up battleground states and others outside the red/blue divide.
You’re arguing that Obama only does well where Democrats cannot win, something that has never been true. If anything, it’s more true of Clinton (but only slightly so).
Caucus states?
I live in one. The caucus here was a disaster. I didn’t even get to vote.
If Senator Clinton needs argument to dispute in caucus states where no Democrat can win anyway, I will be eager to file my complaints on the caucus here.
The math says otherwise there WS.
But I KNOW you have your problems with grasp on reality.
You also have a gift for pulling pretty nasty tried stabs on friends so you can work with your enemies.
DO try and get a grip.
Obama cannot win without Clinton. That is a fact.
I do not trust Obama without Clinton holding his hand.
“The math says otherwise there WS.”
What math? Fuzzy math?
Obama has 2,156 delegates with more to come. The polls show him leading McCain nationwide.
Get over your hatred of Obama – he is the nominee of the Democratic Party.
“There is no chance in Hell that he will lose at the convention – absolutely none.”
Oh I disagree.
Obama will have to defer to Senator Clinton and her supporters. And he will have to do it soon.
IF he does not? Senator Clinton will abandon trying to be better than Obama. He’s a lightweight with no ability to fight.
In a floor fight? She kicks his butt.
But if Obama is smart he will avoid that.
Oh I know you Obamaniacs don’t like it.
But the fact is? Senator Clinton and her supporters have Obama’s fate their hands.
Kick us to the curb and you lose in a walk.
“OR she can take it OR the Presidential nomination at the convention.”
Nope. The Democratic Party will approve any choice Barack makes for VP and there is no way that she can take the nomination.
He may well select her for VP, but that is his choice, not hers.
“In a floor fight? She kicks his butt.”
There will be no floor fight – he has the delegates to secure the nomination. She has nothing.
It’s Barack Obama’s ballgame.
“Get over your hatred of Obama – he is the nominee of the Democratic Party.”
Not until the convention he aint.
And I don’t hate Obama. I’ve defended him.
Until that bit where he wants to work with the enemy.
“Not until the convention he aint.”
Sigh……………… what is going to change – what could possibly change – between now and the Convention?
He has the delegates – they ain’t goin’ nowhere.
If Senator Clinton needs argument to dispute in caucus states where no Democrat can win anyway, I will be eager to file my complaints on the caucus here.
Sigh. . .I agree that any and all caucus irregularities should be investigated. What I was asking is: Do we have polls showing that the popular outcome would have been significantly different?
And, once again, you undermined a perfectly valid point with a fallicious claim. Maybe Hillary is the better general election candidate. But about those caucus states; here’s most of them:
Minnesota – blue since ‘84, Obama leading McCain
Wisconsin – blue since ‘88, Obama leading
Washington – blue since ‘88, Obama leading
Hawaii – blue since ‘88, Obama leading
Iowa – won by Dukakis, (Bill) Clinton, and Gore, Obama leading
Maine – won by Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, Obama leading
Colorado – Won by Clinton, Obama leading
Nevada – won by Clinton, Obama down by 6
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080308210538AAII4Ad
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1988-Large.png
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun02.html
My argument is not that Obama is necessarily the better general election candidate–just that he’s not anywhere close as pathetic as you’d like people to believe.
Heh heh.
Well WS you are not particularly respectable and you are way less than knowledgable.
Political conventions DO still have meaning.
Senator Clinton can do what she likes with her delegates.
She can challenge Obama. She can demand the VP.
Obama says he likes to pander.
Well let’s have him pander to friends before we let him do so with enemies.
You had better get acquainted with party rules and reality WS.
At the convention, all bets are off.
Pledge and super delegates can do whatever they want.
Call it a safety valve. And I am damned thankful for it.
“Senator Clinton can do what she likes with her delegates.”
Yep, they can cast their votes for Hillary – Obama still wins.
“She can challenge Obama.”
Yep, and Obama still wins.
“She can demand the VP.”
Yep, and Obama can choose anyone he wants and the convention will approve that choice.
“Well WS you are not particularly respectable and you are way less than knowledgable.”
Yep to the first, nope to the second – I’ve been around a bit and I know what I am talking about.
It is Barack Obama’s Democratic Party now – he has won the nomination. Hillary needs to fall in line behind the Party’s nominee.
“Pledge and super delegates can do whatever they want.”
Name a time when a (living) nominee that won the clinching total of delegates during the primary season lost the nomination at the convention.
You can’t – it has never happened.
They ain’t changing their minds.
“You had better get acquainted with party rules and reality WS.”
I know the Party rules far better than you, J R, remember I have been a Democratic activist for forty years.
You? Not quite so long.
The pledged delegates are NOT going to switch to Clinton.
It ain’t happenin’.
And with that, this Democrat is out of here…..
Let’s take you apart piece by piece WS.
And let’s be up front. I don’t like you. You do not aquit Obama supporters well here.
““Senator Clinton can do what she likes with her delegates.”
Yep, they can cast their votes for Hillary – Obama still wins.
Is that right? Delegates and super delegates can change their minds. That is what a convention is for.
”
“She can challenge Obama.”
Yep, and Obama still wins.”
See above.
August is a long time away there WS. Pledged and super delegates can change their minds. How IS Obama trending lately? I know 17 people who will NOT vote for him.
”
“It is Barack Obama’s Democratic Party now – he has won the nomination. Hillary needs to fall in line behind the Party’s nominee.”
Ha.
WS I do not pretend to understand what your investment is in this panderer and Republican apologist. I guess that is for you or him to explain.
As a late and grudging Clinton supporter?
I don’t fall in line with people I don’t like or trust.
You WS and Barack Obama fall into that category.
“The pledged delegates are NOT going to switch to Clinton.
It ain’t happenin’.”
Only if Obama does exactly what Senator Clinton and her supporters demand.
Oh I want Senator Clinton to take on you and yours in Denver WS. PLEASE do continue to overestimate yourselves and your candidate.
“And let’s be up front. I don’t like you.”
Let’s be up front, I don’t like you either.
“Is that right? Delegates and super delegates can change their minds. That is what a convention is for.”
Barring an Obama withdrawal from the process, any attempt to deny him the nomination would effectively end the existence of Democratic Party for all time.
“I know 17 people who will NOT vote for him.”
Great. I know 50 million people that won’t vote for him, and another 50 million that won’t vote for John McCain. What’s your point?
“I guess that is for you or him to explain.”
I don’t owe you an explanation for anything, but I do see America as one country, as does Barack, unlike those that would continue the divide.
“I don’t fall in line with people I don’t like or trust.”
Don’t then – you are just one of many potential voters and you get the same number of votes that I do – one.
“Only if Obama does exactly what Senator Clinton and her supporters demand.”
Yeah, right. Look up winners and losers in the dictionary. Obama was the winner and Clinton was the loser. Barack calls the shots.
BlueJay,
You said this:
“I for one want Obama on all fours kissing her feet and giving her whatever she asks for. Failing that? I not only will not support Obama but will work against him.”
Did we hear that right, BlueJay? You’ll “work against him,” how? By campaigning for John McCain? By sending McCain money?
You would rather have a Republican in the White House than the man nominated by the Democratic Party for the office of the Presidency. There is really not a lot more left to say.
Missed this one.
From obama’s remarks before and particularly since he stole the nomination, I have legitimate fears that he is a Republican using the Democratic party.
3 Trackbacks
[...] on Clinton shading truth on popular vote by Rage unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptIowa – won by Dukakis, (Bill) [...]
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptIowa – won by Dukakis, (Bill) Clinton, and Gore, Obama leading Maine – won by Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, Obama leading Colorado – Won by Clinton, Obama leading Nevada – won by Clinton, Obama down by 6 … [...]
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptunknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’sa quick excerptIowa – won by Dukakis, (Bill) Clinton, and Gore, Obama leading Maine – won by Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, Obama leading Colorado – Won by Clinton, Obama leading Nevada – won … [...]