There’s no doubt that U.S. and Iraqi forces have made real progress against the insurgency in recent months. “Violence is down, armed extremists are in disarray, government confidence is rising and sectarian communities are gearing up for a battle at the polls rather than slaughter in the streets,” Associated Press reported, calling it a possible “turning point.”
After hearing countless Bush declarations of “turning points” in Iraq, there’s reason for skepticism about this latest defining moment. It could be a calm in the storm – a massive truck bomb killed 63 people and wounded scores in Baghdad Tuesday, the deadliest bombing in three months. But the reduction in violence is a good sign that the insurgency is on the defensive, if not in its last throes.
Both President Bush and John McCain called this week for more offshore oil drilling, which they previously opposed. “If congressional leaders leave for the Fourth of July recess without taking action, they will need to explain why $4-a-gallon gasoline is not enough incentive for them to act,” Bush said.
The United States does need to expand its energy production, but don’t be fooled into believing this would significantly lower gasoline prices. The federal Energy Information Administration estimates only about 16 billion barrels of oil exist in the area covered by the offshore moratorium – a drop in the bucket of the world oil supply. Even drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which Bush supports but McCain opposes, would have little impact on prices. According to the EIA, any benefits from drilling in ANWR wouldn’t be seen for five to 10 years and would amount to savings of only about 7 cents a gallon by 2027 if oil prices remain high.
Also, Bush is a bit disingenuous in blaming Democrats for the ban on offshore drilling. Though many Democrats have and do oppose the drilling, it was his father who issued a presidential executive order in 1990 banning coastal oil exploration, and Bush could rescind that order today if he chose to.
The McCain campaign’s attempt to woo female supporters is failing badly. Barack Obama is leading John McCain among women by 13 percentage points in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls and by 19 points in the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News survey. Those are huge leads, given that John Kerry won the women’s vote by only 3 points, and Al Gore won it by 11 points.
“While the McCain campaign apparently believes that women are easy marks for its latent feminist cross-dressing, a reality check suggests that most women can instantly identify any man who’s hitting on them for selfish ends,†columnist Frank Rich wrote.
Wichita attorney Bradley Schlozman may be in deep trouble — and with good reason, if the allegations are true. The Justice Department is considering launching a grand jury investigation into whether Schlozman, a former U.S. attorney based in Kansas City, Mo., intentionally misled Congress when he gave conflicting statements about his role in filing a voter fraud lawsuit in Missouri, Associated Press reported. Scholzman also boasted about hiring conservative loyalists over better-qualified lawyers when he was acting assistant attorney for the Justice Department’s civil rights division.
Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., dropped below the 50 percent mark in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll — he’s up 48 to 39 percent for Democratic challenger Jim Slattery. Dipping below 50 percent is a key indicator, say some political analysts, that a candidate might be vulnerable. Leading Slattery by only 9 points this early in the race also indicates some weakness.
Roberts is still the heavy favorite in his race. But the fact is, this just isn’t a good year for Republican incumbents, especially those who, like Roberts, have close ties to President Bush. Voters are in a surly, throw-the-bums-out mood. They want change.
Meanwhile, the poll indicates that Barack Obama has cut John McCain’s lead in Kansas in half, from a 21-percentage point lead in May to a 10-point spread in June, causing Rasmussen to move the state in the presidential race from “safely Republican†to “likely Republican.â€
There’s no doubt that U.S. and Iraqi forces have made real progress against the insurgency in recent months. “Violence is down, armed extremists are in disarray, government confidence is rising and sectarian communities are gearing up for a battle at the polls rather than slaughter in the streets,” Associated Press reported, calling it a possible “turning point.”
