NBC political director Chuck Todd explains why the nomination race is entering a crucial stage for Hillary Clinton, and may already have slipped away from her.
“For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead — which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote — she’ll have to win 55 percent of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama’s way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57 percent. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, then Clinton’s percentage need tops 60 percent of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead.â€
She’s facing a steep uphill climb, even if she wins Texas and Ohio. She has to win by large margins from here on out to regain the lead in elected delegates.
As a result, Clinton’s advisers are considering pressing to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan at the national convention, the New York Times reported. Clinton won both those primaries, but neither candidate campaigned there and, according to Democratic Party rules about primary scheduling, the delegates aren’t supposed to count.
47 Comments
My prediction is that if Clinton doesn’t carry Texas then she will drop out of the race the next day.
Mark my words, if the Clintons lose the pledged delegate count and then get the DNC to re-seat the MI and FL delegates, it will destroy the Democratic party. Blacks will abandon the party if Clinton steals the nomination away from Obama. Many Obama supporters will not vote for Clinton in the general, in protest of the stealing of the nomination. Clinton will lose the general and you will get your 100 year war with McCain.
I agree Freddy – that is why it won’t happen. Too many of us remember 1968.
I see the key state as Ohio, not Texas. A purple swing state.
Back in the 70s, when Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm ran a largely symbolic presidential campaign she said she’d felt far more discriminated against for being a woman than for being an African-American.
I think part of Senator Clinton’s problem is latent sexism. While it’s patently obvious she’s no latter-day Lurlene Wallace, there are plenty of people who think her candidacy in 2008 is a stalking horse for a third Bill Clinton presidency.
Barack Obama yesterday gave a long speech, with details, budgets, and how-tos, which was basically ignored by the conservative-dominated mainstream media. They’d much rather perpetuate the myth that Obama’s candidacy is all inspiration and no substance.
Senator Clinton has all the qualifications of being a strong and effective Chief Executive, but she comes up short as a candidate. And not for a lot of rational reasons. She doesn’t give as good a speech as Obama. She doesn’t have the “good ol’ boy” appeal her husband had… largely because she isn’t a boy.
I think the should seat the MI and Fl delegates but they should split them down the middle giving each candidate the same Amount, if not the Clinton supporters will continue to blame the Obama suppoters of cheating and saying if we could have just got the votes from those 2 states. and the people of FL am MI votes count at least a little. IMO
And another thing –
Mike Huckabee’s futile candidacy has resulted in an important issue for both parties to consider.
Just because McCain beat the Huckster in California doesn’t mean a Republic Party candidate can actually win the state in a general election. Just because Obama can overwhelm Clinton in Kansas doesn’t mean he can turn the state blue.
Regardless of who wins the Texas primary/caucus, Texas isn’t likely to deliver its electoral college votes to any Democrat.
Ohio, that’s another matter. Ohio has always been a key swing state.
By definition, the Democrats’ “super” delegates will go into the convention uncommitted. Since many of them will also be on the ballot in November, they’re likely to go for the best *candidate.* (And why hasn’t the conservative-dominated mainstream media mentioned all the party-appointed uncommitted delegates who’ll vote in the Repiublic Party’s convention? Just because all Republic Party winner-take-all primaries and caucuses are their rules, just what would be the delegate count if Huckabee might have a more democratic (small “d”) proportional count?)
McCain’s so-called “Straight Talk Express” has driven into the ditch, as if George WMD Bush were driving it drunk. After opposing Shrub’s tax-giveaways to the wealthiest, McCain is now “straight-talking” us into perpetual tax inequity. After offering a reasonable approach to immigration, McCain now opposes his previous position with the McCain-Kennedy proposal. And now even McCain is voting *for* waterboarding!
And a hundred more years of war in Iraq.
The Clintons will say or do anything to crown Queen Hillary. How can anybody vote for her is beyond me.
She will not be able to get the delegates from FL and MI, and she shouldn’t. What she needs to do, and I think she has realized it, is campaign for the primaries in the upcoming states, rather than wait for Texas and Ohio. Apparently she will be in Wisconsin Saturday for a couple days. Better late than never, I guess. It was a mistake to not campaign in the Potomac primaries.
The Super deleagtes will agree that winning in November is more important than any Quixotic attempt to cherry-pick a candidate. They will go with whichever one is winning primaries – especially ‘purple’ primaries.
Doug! Son!
I’ve got a lot of money that says you’re wrong!
Three bets for you, a friendly trio of wagers:
One, Hillary loses Texas.
Pretty good bet for you, Hillary leads as of now.
Two, When she loses, she stays in.
Another good bet for you. If she loses Texas it would be a big blow, 228 delegates. Texas is a winner take all state I think. I think it comes down to the super delegates eventually. They all owe Hillary.
Three, if it comes down to super delegates, Hillary wins.
$50 each bet. To go to the charity of your choice. For you, individual bets. For me, I have to win all three or I don’t collect any thing.
Yes Randy WE KNOW.
You’re for Obama.
Well, Florida and Michigan HAVE to count some kind of way. I agree with punishing them for moving up their primaries, but you can’t completely cut them out.
A second primary perhaps?
And I STILL remain leery of Obama. He gets an almost total pass from the right wing hit machine. Why?
I’m telling you the Dems don’t need to work with the cons. They dug their grave. Let Hillary shovel ‘em under.
Hank – I’ll take it. Catholic Charities.
I figure if they can play bingo they will accept gambling money!
;)
JR – If they held new primaries in MI and FL, I would be for that. But since Hillary was the only one on the ballot in MI, and no one campaigned in either state, it would be unfair to count the delegates from the previous primaries.
I just think she started coasting too early. She needs to get back into the fight RIGHT NOW.
TDT -
Clinton campaigned hard in Virginia, she didn’t concede it. Her campaign is based in Arlington. She still lost Virginia by 29%.
Agree that TDT. Agreed also that it would be unfair to count the earlier, unsanctioned primaries in Michigan and Florida.
But it just would not be right to totally cut Florida and Michigan out. Not good for November turnout there.
“J R” –
If the so-called “Clinton Machine” were anything that it’s trumped up to be, the negatives against Barack Obama would be readily evident.
Perhaps there *aren’t* any negatives. (Which is not to say the Reich Wing won’t make some up.)
Fact is, they’ve already shot their wad. The madrassa lie, the middle-name thing, even the “experience” issue… (Cheney and Rumsfeld had loads of experience…how did that work out?).
The Republic Party desperately wants to run against Senator Clinton. They’ve got their attacks and lies down pat and some of them might catch on during the general election.
Against Obama, they’ve got nothing but made-up fantasies and race-baiting.
And they’ll do it on behalf of a candidate who was against water-boarding until he voted for it; for a candidate who promises American jobs aren’t coming back and illegal aliens aren’t going home; against a guy who promises to turn Iraq into the Second Hundred Years War.
“J R” –
If the so-called Clinton Machine were anything that it’s trumped up to be, the negatives against Barack Obama would be readily evident.
Perhaps there *aren’t* any negatives. (Which is not to say the Reich Wing won’t make some up.)
Fact is, they’ve already shot their wad. The madrassa lie, the middle-name thing, even the “experience” issue… (Cheney and Rumsfeld had loads of experience…how did that work out?).
The Republic Party desperately wants to run against Senator Clinton. They’ve got their attacks and lies down pat and some of them might catch on during the general election.
Against Obama, they’ve got nothing but made-up fantasies and race-baiting.
And they’ll do it on behalf of a candidate who was against water-boarding until he voted for it; for a candidate who promises American jobs aren’t coming back and illegal aliens aren’t going home; against a guy who promises to turn Iraq into the Second Hundred Years War.
Freddy
Posted February 14, 2008 at 3:38 pm | Permalink
TDT -
Clinton campaigned hard in Virginia, she didn’t concede it. Her campaign is based in Arlington. She still lost Virginia by 29%.
Did not realize that she campaigned hard in Virginia Freddy.
JR – I hadn’t thought about how not counting their delegates might effect voter turnout in November. Very good point.
My understanding is that they will hold new primaries in Florida and Michigan to address the issue of delegates, especially since Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan.
Rumor has it that they are going to have some third graders come in and count the ballots in Florida, since the folks from the Sunshine State seem to be incapable of counting to twenty one without dropping their pants.
The best approach to FL and MI at this point would be caucuses. I doubt that the states (Sec of State) are likely to want to go to the expense of another election.
Hank – we have a bet?
;)
You bet Ben! (literally)
That’s not true, Clark. Over half of them can count to 22 and only take off their tops!
For SOME of them I want to be there when they count to 22!
Maybe Ben,
You monitor the count in West Palm Beach, I’ll monitor Miami!
Clark, you take the ones with the bermuda shorts and sandals with black socks.
“Clark, you take the ones with the bermuda shorts and sandals with black socks.”
Wrong, Price, I have Daytona Beach, biker chicks and NASCAR girls.
Yep, I can count………………………
LOL
OK Clark, I guess there’s enough countin’ to go around.
The superdelegates will broker the Dem convention after Obama’s rousing and patriotic speech in which he asks Al Gore to be his running mate . . . as President.
The Dem party will then form as one man behind Gore/Obama. It will roll over McCain/whoever.
And the Clintons will be relegated to stumping for Gore or licking their wounded egos in silence.
Read more about this theory on my blog.
Not Texas but …
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23164926
WASHINGTON – Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both crucial states in upcoming primaries, according to Quinnipiac University poll released on Thursday.
Obama may not win Texas, but he should do pretty well. The Texas primary will generate 128 pledged delegates. After voting in the primary, people who want to make an extra effort can participate in a caucus, which will elect 67 delegates.
Basically the primary will attract regular voters. The caucus will attract more energetic (e.g. younger) people.
If Hillary wins 60% of the primary vote, and 45% of the caucus vote, she’ll get 102 delegates, and Obama 96. This is a reasonable projection. A net gain of 6 delegates will not take the lead from Obama. A more likely outcome is a 55% primary win, and a 40% caucus loss, which would generate 96 delegates for Hillary, and 102 for Barack.
If Obama decides to play the NAFTA card, and the translocation of Ohioan manufacturing jobs to Latin America, which the Clintons endorsed, this can score some big points, enough to make the primary close.
Obama doesn’t have to win in Texas and Ohio, he just has to avoid blowouts, and he should be able to do this.
Florida and Michigan are unfortunate. Hillary’s supporters wanted to parlay her early “invevitable coronation” status, knowing that if nobody could campaign, she would win on name recognition. This chicanery cannot be rewarded, given the increasing popular will shown for Obama. The purpose of this rule-breaking was to send a message that Hillary should be the nominee, and nobody else had a chance. That message failed.
WASHINGTON – In a fresh sign of trouble for Hillary Rodham Clinton, one of the former first lady’s congressional black supporters intends to vote for Barack Obama at the Democratic National Convention, and a second, more prominent lawmaker is openly discussing a possible switch.
http://tinyurl.com/32nz94
If nothing else, things are getting real interesting.
Hillary is still in this thing. Don’t buy into the hype just yet. This woman has backbone…something that Obama does not have.
Is anyone really surprised that black voters are converging to Obama. As times go forward….more black candidates will rise to the top and they too will get ALL of the black vote. You see folks, the whites have progressive enough to begin supporting a black candidate. The blacks have never really had a choice until now. Blacks voting for whites was not progressive, it was a necessity. Mark my words – white people will regret opening the can of worms called ‘releasing black tension’. I absolutely believe that if blacks truly had power and influence that they would treat whites just as bad as we treated them in the 18th century. Come on, the majority of blacks are uneducated, illiterate, broke, and addicted. What kind of constructive quality of state would they possibly create. I imagine them running through the streets with mechetes (sp.) chopping the hell out of white folk.
MPS
You have Con leanings. So you’ll forgive me if I pay little attention to your assessment the situation.
“Hillary’s supporters wanted to parlay her early “invevitable coronation” status, knowing that if nobody could campaign, she would win on name recognition.
This is a lie. Michigan and Florida wanted a more prominent role in the early primaries. The DNC quite rightly put the nix on this as it is a race that would eventually end with 2 and even 3 or 4 year nomination processes.
And I don’t usually find myself at odds with Ben but…
“I doubt that the states (Sec of State) are likely to want to go to the expense of another election.”
Huh? Why NOT? They wanted to be more relevant in the nomination process. New primaries would make them not just relevant but KEY.
And Al Gore riding in at the last moment?
I admit, I didn’t even think of that.
But I do like the thought!
“Sam” you CLEARLY are no Hillary Clinton supporter and you are invited to take that last racist post and go elsewhere.
“Come on, the majority of blacks are uneducated, illiterate, broke, and addicted.”
Aren’t your dues to the Klu Klux Klan overdue, Sam?
Doesn’t your white sheet and hood need a little bleach?
Have you paid for your membership to the Trent Lott Strom Thurmond Cheerleading Society yet?
What a loser you are Sam.
With all due apologies to the losers of this world.
I would hate to compare your garden variety loser to such a bigoted SOB as Sam.
Sam, I don’t know what to think about the post at 10:29. There is a man who posts here named Sam who thinks highly of all people. I know you can’t be that Sam. There isn’t an intelligent adult human who thinks the color of a person’s skin makes that person different from another person. I don’t know what color you are and it doesn’t matter because your post tells who you are under whatever color your skin happens to be.
Oops.
It seems that Obama is a little more politically astute than I suspected!
According to this article he might just have the lock on the super delegates after all!
http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=336
I’ll send a check to Catholic Charities tomorrow Ben.
Politicians buying politicians. Is there any hope?
and can spead well.
Dang got my middle fingers mixed up. Should be speak well.
She will win Texas. There is no doubt about that even from Obama. Texas has a very large Mexican vote and the Mexicans have been breaking 2 to 1 for her. The goal for Obama is to hold her under 55% in Texas and that should be doable. The big unknown is what the Republicans might do now that their race is settled. They might decide to vote in the Democratic primary and that could change the dynamics in the remaining states.
Ben
Posted February 14, 2008 at 5:38 pm | Permalink
Not Texas but …
Ben, even in this article they still poll for McCain vs Clinton and McCain vs Obama separately. I wish they could somehow poll with Clinton and Obama on the same ticket. I know it wouldn’t be fair, since McCain doesn’t have a potential running mate, but I really want to see how that match up would fair.
fair = fare in TDT’s world
J R
Posted February 14, 2008 at 10:40 pm | Permalink
“Sam” you CLEARLY are no Hillary Clinton supporter and you are invited to take that last racist post and go elsewhere.
Thank you JR. My thought exactly.
Name anyone TDT, as McCain’s running mate. It would be at least as probable as Obama/Clinton, which isn’t going to happen.
Obama may be inexperienced but he knows enough that Hillary in the back room is a bad thing for him.
Actually Outlander, I think it will be Clinton/Obama. I really don’t know enough about the Republican side of this fight to pick someone for McCain. You pick someone.
Hi Hank – you can hold off on the check until after I win the bet! Of course,catholic Charities can always put it to good work – they leverage it well. My wife will help them spend it!
;)
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[...] WE Blog » The Wichita Eagle Editorial Department Blog wrote an interesting post today on Texas really a firewall for Clinton?Here’s a quick excerptTexas really a firewall for Clinton? Posted1:47 p.m. NBC political director Chuck Todd explains why the nomination race is entering a crucial stage for Hillary Clinton, and may already have slipped away from her. “For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead — which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote — she’ll have to win 55 percent of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama’s way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, th [...]
Hot Garden Fountain Freak…
And how is it working for you, it has been some time between now and this post, i was just wondering if you are happy with it….