The Feb. 5 Democratic caucuses caused a lot of excitement in the state, a few days before Kansas Republicans gave Mike Huckabee a blowout over John McCain. But when the votes are counted on Election Day, Kansas still is likely to be in the GOP’s column, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll. The poll, conducted last weekend and co-sponsored by KWCH, Channel 12 Wichita, has Kansans favoring John McCain over Hillary Clinton 59 to 35 percent and McCain over Barack Obama 50 to 44 percent.
Registered?
Commenting on WE Blog now requires you to be a Kansas.com member. Use the links above to register, if you haven't already, or to log in.Contact us
Follow us
Daily Archives
-
Recent Comments
- CapnAmerica on Open thread 11/23
- Regular on Open thread 11/23
- Regular on Open thread 11/23
- okobserver on Open thread 11/23
- Chas on Open thread 11/23
- CapnAmerica on Too many exemptions
- CapnAmerica on Open thread 11/23
- CapnAmerica on Open thread 11/23
- Regular on Open thread 11/23
- okobserver on Open thread 11/23
35 Comments
Gentle people,
I would like to propose a solution for all of the ugliness on the BLOG.
I know a lot of the people here personally and I’ve really had no animus toward anyone until yesterday.
If you would like to have a decent place for BLOGing and if you would like to find a solution (I have one to propose) please contact me by email.
Everyone that contacts me by tonight(Sunday) evening I will respond with my proposal.
hank@pixius.net
Sen. Obama has trailed in almost every state in which he has waged his presidential campaign, and has come from behind to win – often by substantial margins. So it does not concern me that he is 6 points behind (what is the margin of error in this poll?) McCain in February. As a matter of fact, that number should worry McCain. If Kansas could go blue for Obama, then any state in the country could go blue.
Just for a little update, I have had 10 positive responses to my request as of this morning at this time.
Most from people I know from meet ups or other friends. So far it is a pretty good representation of the BLOGers here.
I’ll email you all my plan and proposal and request input this evening. I’ll be busy to day until this evening.
Thanks for your continued support!
Hank
hank@pixius.net
I think that Obama, if he is the nominee, will fight for and win Kansas. After all it is his “home state”.
OK, I saw that there was a 4% margin for error, and that there were 7% undecided in the McCain/Obama poll. I also noticed that – in KANSAS – Obama wins over McCain with under 35 voters, women, African-Americans, Latinos and – perhaps the biggee here – among INDEPENDENT voters. Obama even captures 15% of Republican voters. Hmmmm.
I’d venture to guess that those “10″ you claim responded to your “plan” are your reichwing cronies.
This battle will NEVER end Price. We (the moderates of the world) will continue to engage you and your allies until YOU stop viewing the world through your warped, religion tainted, hate-filled glasses.
We all know THAT isn’t going to happen………..let the hostilities resume!
With 2 of 4 congressional seats Democratic, Kansas it getting closer to beoming Purple instead of the traditional Red.
Our 6 Electoral Votes don’t amount to much except that this year looks like they’re not automatic Republic Party votes. Especially with Obama as nominee, the McCain campaign will be pressed to devote resources in Kansas fer cryin’ out loud.
If the Republic Party has to fight in Kansas, it doesn’t bode well for them.
Doesn’t every poll use land lines? Aren’t the youth behind Obama in huge numbers? Do the youth have land lines?
Linda that is true about the younger vote and how their not using land lines skews this poll.
But there is a balancing factor to that.
The youth vote is famous for being all blow and low show. In other words, they get all fired up during the campaign and then they don’t bother to vote.
I am never one for conceding defeat. But the fact is the chance that Kansas would go “blue” is just about zero. With its measly few electoral votes, Kansas will see very little attention.
kelly – can you get details on the poll? I wonder how the Obama-McCain race plays out in the 4th District? Might that be an indicator of our chances of retiring Tankerless Todd?
I think the red state super delegates will see this and swing more and more to Obama. Think of the implications of this for other races down-ballot across the country.
60 Senators?
I doubt Kansas will see obama in person again before November. He’ll have governor leadership do his work here. And besides, it’s not enough votes to worry about.
I mean, he DOES have all those “crossovers” from the primary who will turn Kansas blue, right? I mean, that is ALL we heard here leading up to and right after the party vote.
I’ll be waiting to see how all that “crossingover” works out in Kansas.
“Obama even captures 15% of Republican voters.” (Kelly)
Yeah, but did you miss that McCain received 22% of the Democrat voters?
Independents are also an interesting number:
McCain/Clinton – McCain got 55%
McCain/Obama – Obama gots 55%
Hud, my point exactly to Monkey. I guess if 55% is what passes for a landslide, you could say obama will deliver one.
But that wasnt exactly a number I thought of as landslide. And when Monkey said he wanted a Nixon, FDR, etc. landslide, I dont think 55% was the number in mind either!
And… you can expect the race to tighten up the closer we get to November, AND when the mud flies toward st. obama.
Democrats could make a HUGE mistake thinking the “crossovers” will translate into votes for obama in November. It aint over ’til it’s over.
So the Geriatric Candidate will carry Kansas. How comforting.
If you click on the link and drill down to the demographic data on the poll, it is actually quite interesting.
McCain beats Clinton 51% to 43% among Kansas women. Obama beats McCain 50% to 43% among Kansas women. Hmmm…
The Republican candidate will carry Kansas. UNLESS, more vote this year than ever before. If it’s the same voters, the Republican candidate wins.
I see more enthusiasm and determination in the Democratic Party then I’ve ever seen before. There is hope!
I agree lindain. The point of the poll showing Obama only 6 points behind is that it shows the reality of hope for Kansas going blue. We have lots of work to do before November, but voters who are registered independent in Kansas make up as much of the electorate as those registered D. If Obama can win the Independent vote by a fair margin, then he can (could/might) win the state.
Hud
Posted February 24, 2008 at 9:47 am | Permalink
“Obama even captures 15% of Republican voters.” (Kelly)
Yeah, but did you miss that McCain received 22% of the Democrat voters?
—
Feh. Given the way the numbers shake out in Kansas, even Christ would have trouble winning an election as a Democrat.
According to what I read, Republics outnumber Democrats 2 to 1 in Kansas.
So for s&g’s, let’s assume for simplicity’s sake that there are 330,000 voters who are either R or D next November (disregard Independents). If the ratio above holds, then there are 110,000 Democrats and 220,000 Republics voting.
:idea:
Obama gets 15% of the R’s = 0.15 * 220,000 = 33,000 R’s.
McCain gets 22$ of the D’s = 0.22 * 110,000 = 24,200 D’s.
Between D’s and R’s:
Obama: 110,000 + 33,000 – 24,200 = 118,800 votes.
McCain: 220,000 – 33,000 + 24,200 = 211,200 votes.
Looks to me like Obama needs a buttload of Independents to win that contest. Ain’t gonna happen, there ain’t enough fallen R’s, granola D’s and little-L libertarian I’s to go around.
This is WHY Grover rallied his minions around McCain in the first place, once he’d signed the pledge.
Take heart, though, Kansas D’s. It’s McCain. It ain’t Giuliani, or Tancredo, or Hunter, or Huckabee. That the R’s compromised with themselves first (to borrow an Augustus Stupidus mangling of the phrase) in nominating McCain is not an insignificant win.
“According to what I read, Republics outnumber Democrats 2 to 1 in Kansas.”
Well, according to what actually took place this month, Democrats outnumbered Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in the caucuses.
A total of 37,000 Democrats turned out for the Kansas caucuses, whereas only 20,000 Republicans turned out for their caucuses. (Source: http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/9987)
Your ratio doesn’t account for the number of Republicans who switched parties at the caucuses, nor does it account for the number of Republicans who simply chose not to participate in this election. If Democrat turnout exceeds Republican turnout in the general elections, the odds will not be in McCain’s favor.
Why wouldn’t Kansas vote for McCain, just because he’s an EADS backer and would love to send some Kansan jobs to the South, that won’t stop Kansans from shooting themselves in the foot!
“The EADS PAC doled out $5,000 to Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) Straight Talk America PAC”
Looks like Ralph Nadir is gone to try and play spoiler again for the Republicans. Don’t think he could even get most of the Greens to vote for him this time after he’s screwed the country so badly.
I want to know why Kansas continues to go Republican, after all the moderates in Kansas being smacked down continuously by the Reich wing.
What is wrong with you people?
WD, that includes you. I know why Hank Price & Co. votes the way they do, that’s why I DON’T.
BTW, what made Hank so mad yesterday?
I read today a 2006 article which stated that by opening up (re-opening) the tanker contract would most likely benefit a McCain presidential run in the south where he needs support.
I don’t think McCain is such a stand up guy after all.
Run Ralph Run!
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080224/D8V0QN100.html
And
I do agree, the “youth vote” is fickle.
“Obama Girl” did not even make it out to vote.
Good point, Kelly.
The phone survey doesn’t predict very well who’s coming out to vote.
Obama’s people are motovated.
I think Nader could be more problematic for Republicans Those who can’t quite vote for either a Democratic candidate or McCain. The Democrats have two excellent candidates and we are happy, motivated, enthusiastic and determined!
Paul – Nadir is toast. Those who might have some sort of leaning toward his views have never and will never forgive him for supporting Bush in 2000.
Here something to consider too, from “5 myths about Neoconservatives:
5 The Iraq debacle has discredited the neocons.
This could be the biggest whopper of them all. Now that the “surge” in Iraq has brought levels of violence down somewhat, the neocons are already claiming vindication. As Iraq fades from the front pages, the neocons’ hero, Arizona Sen. John McCain, is poised to become the Republican standard-bearer in 2008. (The neocons also would have happily flocked around Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recruited Norman “World War IV” Podhoretz as a senior adviser.)
The DNC going to ask FEC for a determination on whether McCan can withdraw from matching funds.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080225/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_fec_4
Breanne, you are making the mistake so common to obama supporters.
“Well, according to what actually took place this month, Democrats outnumbered Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in the caucuses.”
No.
There was 2:1 participation in the democratic caucuses, but, as you noted later, many were “crossovers” from the republics and independents.
It does NOT mean they will vote democratic or stick with obama in the general.
But please, continue to play charlie brown to the republic’s lucy.
And judging from the locked obama thread, how’s that crossover kumbaya think working out?
Dupes.
And the “obama’s too liberal” meme WILL play to the republics and independents who think mccain is too liberal. You think, even if they crossed over for an anti-hillary moment, they are REALLY going to vote for obama in the general?
I see obama only leads mccain in polls by LESS than the margin of error. It is in no way locked up by obama.
I hope he has more than hope to fight off the republic attacks once they are finished with hillary.
like I said yesterday, the dems will come to regret not nominating hillary.
Like on November 5…
Oh, and “breanne” did you happen to READ this damn thread?
“The poll, conducted last weekend and co-sponsored by KWCH, Channel 12 Wichita, has Kansans favoring John McCain over Hillary Clinton 59 to 35 percent and McCain over Barack Obama 50 to 44 percent.”
Not the last part that now, even in Kansas, with your 2:1 participation with the dems, indies and crossovers, the polls show voters “McCain over Barack Obama 50 to 44 percent.”
Your crossover “hope and inspiration” bullshit didnt even hold out a MONTH in Kansas.
How’s that 2:1 think working out NOW for obama?
Like I said.
Dupes.
Charlie Brown. Lucy. Football. You know the drill.
kfg delivers another smack down. :D
10,000 blog points awarded.
ksfg – what I am looking for is for other states where the split is closer that the cross-overs will carry them for the Dems – both at the top spot and for Congress. Here in KS I am hoping that this will help us get Tiahrt out.
“Not the last part that now, even in Kansas, with your 2:1 participation with the dems, indies and crossovers, the polls show voters “McCain over Barack Obama 50 to 44 percent.”
You are making the same mistake that Hillary’s supporters made in the horse-race polls released before Super Tuesday.
These polls do not represent a large amount of Obama supporters who are unregistered voters–individuals who have moved and have yet to update their information, students participating in their first election, etc. Hillary led so many polls by the similar margins and her campaign saw themselves easily capturing Super Tuesday.
Yet they did not anticipate the organizational power of the Obama campaign and the resulting turnout that left Hillary dead in the water. Obama succeeded in bringing out the youth vote, defying the polls that failed to accurately represent that key group.
And at the rate the donations continue to pour in, McCain will not have the funds to compete. Both parties desperately need to focus on turnout and these silly too-early polls only succeed in convincing more Republicans that they can stay home.
Polls are becoming less and less meaningful. Haven’t you been watching this election?
One Trackback
[...] election for the U.S. presidency: "There are eighteen states plus thebookerrising.blogspot.comMcCain may win Kansas vote that counts mostMcCain may win Kansas vote that counts most Posted2 hours and 55 minutes ago The Feb. 5 Democratic [...]