Aviation weathering economic storm, but do not go on autopilot

trainingWith more bleak national economic reports last week, it is reassuring that Wichita planemakers say that they should weather any slowdown in the U.S. economy. If fact, because of a backlog of orders, new models, increased international demand and the federal stimulus package, the companies expect continued growth for the next several years. “These are wonderful times for us,” Hawker Beechcraft chief executive Jim Schuster told The Eagle.

But the success of the airplane manufacturers also presents a challenge for our region and state. As J.V. Lentell, outgoing chairman of the Greater Wichita Economic Development Coalition, warned last week, other states will aggressively seek to lure away the companies. He said that Wichita and the state need to be ready to fight to retain these companies.

One state move that would help is funding for aviation training and research. Kudos to local lawmakers for helping last week to include $5 million in funding for each effort in the House Education Committee budget.

20 Comments

  1. American Way
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    “and the federal stimulus package, the companies expect continued growth for the next several years….”

    Yeah right. Those $600 dollars will be saved, invested, or spent within the next couple of months. Years. Right.

  2. The Phantom
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    The only stimulus we got during bush yrs. was the meager tax rebate. All the other tax cuts were dead money, and just ended up in the portfolios of the wealthy.
    You’ll notice for all the repub. blustering of trickle down economics, when the want real, immediate stimulus the tax preference goes to the poor and middle class.

  3. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    We just had one of the longest running periods of increasing employment in the history of the United States.

  4. Pedant
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    We just had one of the longest running periods of increasing employment in the history of the United States.

    :roll:

    Do you ever proofread what you write? I have no idea what that sentence means.

    For example, from the BLS:
    | | |
    | Quarterly | |
    | averages | Monthly data | Dec.-
    Category |_________________|__________________________| Jan.
    | | | | | | change
    | III | IV | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
    | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2008 |
    _________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
    |
    HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
    |_____________________________________________________
    | | | | | |
    Civilian labor force ….| 153,191| 153,667| 153,828| 153,866| 153,824|
    Employment …………| 146,019| 146,291| 146,647| 146,211| 146,248|
    Unemployment ……..| 7,172| 7,375| 7,181| 7,655| 7,576|

    Looks pretty flat to me, since June of last year anyway.

    Let’s see your evidence, Econ101, for whatever the heck you meant there…

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

  5. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Pedant —
    I said “just”
    I, of course, meant from the beginning of the recent slow down, backwards :

    We just had one of the longest running periods of increasing employment in the history of the United States.

    This is true.

    Also, by the way, current economic conditions are not quite as bad as some want to claim:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy15feb15,1,6998563.story?page=1&track=rss

  6. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    Pedant

    This was true in December 2007:

    “The current expansion is now in its 74th month — 17 months longer than the average 57-month business cycle since World War II.”

    Until we have a quarter of NEGATIVE growth, we are still in an expansion.

    Payroll growth goes hand in hand with economic growth.

    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTZjMDc4N2E3YmUyZTdlNTJiZDA5YWQ1NDc0MDc4Y2M=

  7. Pedant
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    No, it pre-dates the recent slowdown. You are incorrect if you’re stating that began shrinking when the economy began slowing down (whatever that means).

    To be clear here: employment has not grown since at least June of 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    That’s 8 or so months without employment growth — at least.

    See my link. (By the way, where’s yours?)

    Again, if you have to go back to June 2007 (at least) to make a point about today’s economy, what exactly is your point?!?

    And by linking to the LAT piece you’re arguing that Bernanke’s comments, which caused the Dow to tank on Friday :roll: , were what? Upbeat?

    From your link:
    The somber tone from Bernanke and Paulson helped depress the mood on Wall Street, ending a three-day rally in stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 175.26 points, or 1.4%, to 12,376.98.

  8. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    Pedant
    The markets are Schizoid, short term, and they always have been.
    You know that.
    If Bernanke says “things suck” the markets go up because they think he will cut interest rates.
    The opposite is also true.
    When Bernanke says “everything is beautiful” the markets tank, because they are affraid he will RAISE rates to avoid inflation.

    Now, to the employment question.

    I do know that I read, just recently, that we had just come of around 52 months of increased payroll or employment numbers.

    I am sorry, can not find the link.

    Economic expansion, or GROWTH is required for job creation.

    They go hand in hand, but they do not always match perfectly.

  9. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    Pedant,
    HERE IT IS as of Oct 2007:

    “Our economy has a solid foundation, but there are also areas of real concern. Our economy has seen the longest uninterrupted period of job growth on record – 52 months of job growth – but job creation has slowed recently. Consumer spending has been growing, but the housing market is declining. Business investment and exports are still rising, but the cost of imported oil has increased.”

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/economy/index.html

    Ok, it is a quote from Bush.

    Show me someone who disputes the claim?

    This is a rather easy target to shoot at. Surely, if Bush is wrong, someone has called him on it, by now, dont you think?

  10. Pedant
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Ok, whatever.

    The Fed can’t do anything now but give margin to banks, what with the FF at roughly 3%. Inflation’s at least 4 (annual), so it’s all free money anyway at this point.

    Monetary policy is off the table as a tool pumping dollars out, so it’s more likely the market is hammering Bernanke and Paulson because they seem not to understand this — at least in speaking before the Senate.

  11. Pedant
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    :lol:

    Bush’s own BLS makes him either a liar or, more likely, he’s fudging something somewhere.

    I know everbody’d like to chalk that up to his being a poor communicator, but you ever notice that his mistakes in these areas always favor his policies? :wink:

  12. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    Pedant
    slow down a bit.
    These numbers are ALWAYS revised up and down.
    They are estimates.
    Also, regardless of when the job growth slowed, or stopped, it was still one of longest job growth periods, in history!

    Also, it was an “inverted yield curve” under Greenspan, that actually had much to do with all of our current problems.

    Bernanke has, at least, fixed that problem.

  13. Kev
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    These companies have been in Kansas for decades and have firmly established roots in Kansas. They are not going anywhere else and there is no reason for the state to give them too many “incentives” to stay. A training centre? Absolutely! But no tax giveaways!

  14. Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    Actually

    Barry Goldwater tried to move Learjet to Arizona, some time back.

    Kansas is a high tax state.

    Also, we have to work on our corporate tax rates, America has the highest corporate rates in the world.

    We could lose out to another state, or to another country.

  15. Pedant
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    Econ101
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    Actually

    Barry Goldwater tried to move Learjet to Arizona, some time back.

    Kansas is a high tax state.

    Also, we have to work on our corporate tax rates, America has the highest corporate rates in the world.

    We could lose out to another state, or to another country.

    Actually

    :lol:

    I thought you guys were all about “corporations don’t pay taxes, their customers do.”

    If that’s true, then if I’m CEO why would I care about corporate tax rates at all? Granted, the expense to gather, maintain, and report tax information isn’t insignificant, but if it’s a cost I can just pass on, whether this year or over several years, then who cares?

  16. The Phantom
    Posted February 17, 2008 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    That was just a republican slogan to get the empty headed public to give the corporations that don’t pay taxes some more tax cuts!
    Wasn’t it GM or Chrysler who just reported their biggest ever loss, the reason was that they lost carried over tax losses, it’s a wonder the Repubs. didn’t make it so they could peddle their tax losses to someone that could use them.

  17. Rog
    Posted February 18, 2008 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    “I thought you guys were all about “corporations don’t pay taxes, their customers do.”

    If that’s true, then if I’m CEO why would I care about corporate tax rates at all? Granted, the expense to gather, maintain, and report tax information isn’t insignificant, but if it’s a cost I can just pass on, whether this year or over several years, then who cares?”

    Do you really not understand that driving up the price of your product isn’t a good thing?

  18. Pedant
    Posted February 18, 2008 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    Rog
    Posted February 18, 2008 at 1:09 pm | Permalink
    Do you really not understand that driving up the price of your product isn’t a good thing?

    What? Ain’t that the whole idea? Raising your price is ALWAYS a good thing. How else you going to get a raise?

    Do you mean instead that it’s difficult? ‘Cause I’ll give you that. :D

    (Hint: the flaw ain’t in raising your price, it’s in what you’re selling: do you not think raising price has more than a little to do with what exactly you’re hustling?)

  19. Rog
    Posted February 18, 2008 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    The only reason to raise the price of your product is because you have added value to it, excluding simple market forces. Taxes do not add value to any product.

  20. Pedant
    Posted February 19, 2008 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    Rog
    Posted February 18, 2008 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    The only reason to raise the price of your product is because you have added value to it, excluding simple market forces. Taxes do not add value to any product.

    If taxes are merely passed on to customers, then taxes don’t matter. In this case value doesn’t matter because everybody’s taxes go up. Everybody just passes it along to the customer in our model, right?

    Value can only exist where a real quid pro quo exists between good/service and price. In this model, where business is free to just tack on taxes as a unit addition to price, value is irrelevant. This is independent of the good/service, too.

    The key is that, in a valid quid pro quo transaction, then given a market price and a subsequent tax, the incidence of that tax is determined by the perceived utility of that good. This concept is also known as the demand elasticity of the good/service, with respect to price.

    That is the key to tax incidence. The key damn sure ain’t “for all businesses, tax expense is converted by fiat to a price increase.”

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  1. [...] WE Blog » The Wichita Eagle Editorial Department Blog wrote an interesting post today on Aviation weathering economic storm, but do not go on autopilotHere’s a quick excerptAviation weathering economic storm, but do not go on autopilot PostedJust now With more bleak national economic reports last week, it is reassuring that Wichita planemakers say that they should weather any slowdown in the U.S. economy. If fact, because of a backlog of orders, new models, increased international demand and the federal stimulus package, the companies expect continued growth for the next several years. “These are wonderful times for us,” Hawker Beechcraft chief executive Jim Schu [...]