I did not mention it, but I did think about it. An old fashion train ride across the country meeting people is more effective than most other means of getting your point across. If you can’t afford the train, drive across America. People are more likely to vote for, or against you, once they meet you. In person, they get a chance to size you up whereas on TV/mail, they don’t get the same chance.

I agree with your points about Iowa, but I think their caucus system is very flawed.

In the ‘04 race, Kerry’s campaign was almost bankrupt in December, and he had to take a huge loan on his house to continue.

Meanwhile, Dean was pulling in large amounts of campaign $’s.

Later in the Iowa caucus, CSpan showed a Kerry supporter (falsely) telling a Dean supporter that Kerry had been raising more campaign $’s than Dean. The Dean supporter switched to Kerry.

The best way for a dark horse candidate to win today, either in the current screwed up system or a one day primary for all states is simple and free. Stand out from your opponents. Aside from the internet, there are plenty of cheap and free options for a poor candidate to win the nomination that were not available until recently. There are plenty of ways to generate media coverage without paying a lot of money.

I have seen studies which question blanket ads and their effect on the common voter, and I have not seen where they are worth the money wasted on them. They can backfire a lot easier than most people realize.

Some Democrat candidates have grasped the potential of the internet and are going to be in much better shape than those Democrats who haven’t. Most Republican candidates have not grasped the huge potential of the internet as a means to get their message out. As it is now, people frequently do not pay attention to political ads, and as long as this current set has been going, people are going to pay even less attention the closer it gets to primary time since it started so early.

Given the sort of uncertain at best shift in the Kansas political landscape (other thread), what about running the ‘retail’ type of campaign in ‘08 vs. Roberts? Perhaps I’m not sure what you mean by a ‘retail’ campaign, by I’m thinking that you relied less on TV and mail and brought the dark horse forward by getting out and meeting people. It’s hard to see the point of a campaign against Roberts if the contest boils down to TV ads and mail.

Do a national primary and turn it over to those with the most money.

I disagree. If all states held primaries on the same day, then all states would have an equal chance of picking the president. Giving the small states the edge encourages them to support the screwed up Electoral College system where the big states get to choose the president. Only 1/4 of the states matter in the presidential election in November. The EC gives the advantage to the big states. I have seen people try to defend the EC, but it does not work. With the closeness of many presidential elections, small states can have equal opportunity to swing the vote either way. In the current system, they do not have any chance. In Kansas, your vote does not count if you vote non-Republican. In California, your vote does not count if you vote non-Democrat. Without the EC, your vote would count both places.

A dark horse candidate has the same chance if the primaries were held on the same day.

The DNC has threatened to disallow Florida representation at the Convention if Florida votes early and has warned candidates not to campaign in the breakaway early states or risk punishment from the DNC.

Several posters have made the point about the Kansas primaries and it is as valid for the national presidential primaries.

Kansas, the other thread (purple) not-withstanding is too far ‘right’ to be representative. Similarly, Massachusetts would clearly be too far ‘left.’

Small states give a ‘dark-horse’ candidate a chance that he cannot get in a big state. Since voters actually get a chance to meet the candidates lots of money for TV spots will be less of a factor.

I worked a campaign in New Hampshire many years ago. We brought forward a dark horse and unseated a president.

For this time though, it’s going to be Iowa and New Hampshire, so get over it.

The fairest/easiest thing for everyone next time will be to go regional — which is sort of happening already.

The national parties are sick of continually dealing with states trying to leapfrog each other, but it’s going to be up to them to twist some arms to get to some sort of regional model going and make sure smaller states still have some relevance.

Otherwise it’ll just be about California, Texas, New York, and Florida, and screw the rest. So those of you complaining about Iowa better be careful what you wish for.

Some ambitious reporter or blogger should embark on a mission to promote the idea to the agenda setters and decision makers, all the while keeping a comical dossier of democracy in action. The key to getting an early primary in Kansas would entail bringing party leaders to a few of the favored diners, and you’d have to do the ordering on arrival.

What would they be having? Chicken fried steak, of course. And mashed potatoes. And lovely, lovely gravy. (And they could smoke!)

We’d get an early primary.

The NYT writer seems to have a point when Kansas continues to elect Brownback, Tiahrt and Roberts.

How about we write into our State Constitution that we’re the ones who have the first primary?

Also, the caucus process is time-consuming (hurts single parents for example), is NOT a secret ballot, and lends itself to intimidation tactics.

Other than that, it’s great.

Bull!

It assures that the more radical elements of both parties get to pick the candidates. It’s time for a change. Why not have the primaries in all states that hold primaries on the same day? Of course that would leave Kansas out, but that’s not much of a loss.

Who’s the big winner?

Big media, of course. It’s a lot easier for the big networks to manipulate a small state population than a big one.

Howard Dean said that media had to be returned to the fairness doctrine, and his 30 point lead in the polls “evaporated.” The only thing keeping Kerry alive was a second mortgage on his house and suddenly he’s the “front runner.”

Iowa = Idiots Out Wandering Around.