For those who remember the Iran hostage crisis during the Carter administration, the current standoff over 15 captured British sailors is bringing back familiar sights and feelings: Westerners paraded before cameras, threats of show trials, demands for apologies, etc.
The staged TV "confessions" and other stunts are a clear violation of prisoner treatment under the Geneva Conventions.
The situation is turning into a major test of wills that some fear could erupt in military conflict if either side miscalculates or makes a mistake.
Let’s hope this can be defused diplomatically.
But this incident once again underscores Iran’s cynicism and contempt for international norms, and illustrates why pursuing diplomacy with Iran isn’t an easy or certain course.
Posted by Randy Scholfield
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72 Comments
I estimate some 50,000 Iranians are currently living and/or attending school in the United States. Perhaps someone can sharpen my estimate. Iranian young people who I observe in our Wichita schools appear to be excellent students and well-mannered, hopefully soaking up the American way of life to take back to Iran in the future.
So let’s use some finesse on this Iranian situation. Don’t blast in like the usual bull in the China shop as the U.S. generally seems inclined to do.
The world over, even our enemies, watch how the U.S. does things. This country must set a better example, an effort which hasn’t been the norm in the past few years.
Thats what you get from treating them nice the first time. Keep feeding the cats and they will keep coming back.
Your mama taught you that when you were a kid.
To bad no one apprised Jimmy Carter of that practice.
Could be like the Soviets did once in Lebanon when some of their Diplomats were kidnapped. The Soviets picked up some local Lebonese officials and shot them dead. The Soviets then said, “what were you saying about negotiations?”
or not…
There are elements in Iran who would love to see their crazy nutcase government fall. Somehow we need to find a way to cultivate those elements. However, just as 9/11 galvanized us behind our government anything similar to that might well strengthen their oppressive regime.
I am surprised that they have not at least released the female sailor as they had promised. That might then have opened an avenue for a resolution to this fiasco.
Ben your surprise is surprising in that people still try to see this as a logical element we are dealing with. This is a prime example of why diplomacy with Iran won’t ultimately be the answer. I don’t profess to have the answer but talk here isn’t going anywhere.
This situation doesn’t seem to be going very well at all.
JWink, maybe Iranian kids are different today, but when I went to school with them, they studied hard, were polite, but kept to themselves as a group. They rarely, if ever, dated outside their nationality, and they made it clear that they were superior, although their parents knew they would receive a better education here. lol They never saw the controversy in that.
No one believed the ‘confessions’ from the captured hostages, but it makes it very tough now, because, should Iran release them – the hostages will tell the truth about being forced to confess. That will pop Iran’s little manipulative bubble.
Surely, Iran is not stupid enough to think they can harm these folks?
Surely not…
Question I wonder: Are the elements in power just using this to cement their positions locally? Are they acting, not in their country’s interest (and clearly this is NOT in Iran’s interest) but trictly for their POLITICAL self-interest?
Ben, I agree with your premise; from the various media reports, etc., the Iranian troops involved in the seizure were under the direct command of the Grand Ayatollah, and not the President of Iran. As mused before, I wonder if this reflects the internal divisions within the Iranian government (political vs. religious factions).
A British perspective on the issue:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6502947.stm
One good point ksgrm makes – are they rational? In Game Theory we are taught in dealing with an adversary that he will act in his own self-interest. That we can deal with – we can then work from there. However, the fundamental assumption is that the other party is rational.
So this gives us two very unpleasant questions – are the specific parties we are dealing with irrational? Or, even if they are rational but don’t care about their country but are more interested in their internal politics.
During the big hostage situation there was a lot of internal posturing at our expense. This may be what is occurring today. The mullahs need something to distract from their domestic failures.
Remember, the population of Iraq is about 25 million or roughly about 75% of the population of California.
But Iran is much larger with a population of roughly 80 million. Iranians are Persians or descendents of Indo-Europeans, a different source than the Iraq population. Admittedly a lot of mixing and similar religions.
Hmmm…I don’t think the attempt to divorce Ahmadenijhad from the situation is going to fly.
He’s already gone on record as demanding that the UK apologize for being in Iranian waters, although they have not yet admitted they were…
Supposedly, Ahmadenijhad has visited the hostages – and has also called for Canada’s condemnation of the water wiggling.
If the Iranian military is actually taking orders from the Holy Man, which I kind of doubt – we have bigger problems that previously thought.
GS, the Revolutionary Guard (of Iran) is the organization which took the action against the Brits. In the blog post linked below, towards the end, the author clearly states the relationship between the Revolutionary Guard and the Grand Ayatollah.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/irans_revolutionary_guards_are.html
The linked Wikipedia article discusses, inter alia, the fact that the Revolutionary Guard is a parallel force to the “regular” Iranian Army.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guards_Corps
Anyone else think this could end up starting World War 3 ???
Hell, I figured W would have been the one to start it, not the Brits.
I am Irish and I’ve seen the Brits up close and often. They tend not to give up and not to give in and they can be very harsh. I personally doubt that this will end peacefully. Hope I’m wrong about that and I may be but, as a rule, they don’t like being defied.
It won’t be WWIII. The U.S. and allies will just do an air war, sea launched cruise and aircraft and very few special forces. It won’t be another Iraq.
We’ll just tear the hell out of their infrastructure and wait till they slowly die on the vine.
Republican – I remember predictions just over 4 years ago about how quick and easy Iraq would be.
and remind me again why we couldnt do that in Iraq?
If Israel would stay within its own borders, none of this would be happening, and Crude Oil would not have risen to 66 dollars a barrel with futures rising from that.
The Arab summit has endorsed the Saudi Arabia Peace Plan, which only requires Israel to abide by UN Resolutions, the Geneva Conventions, and international law.
There’s what driving this problem, as usual.
Ed you are nuts.
The Shiites and the Sunis are killing each other daily, but you blame this on the Jews, who have killed far less Moslems than the typical Moslem terrorist organization.
Tony,Because the goal was to topple a dictator and give Iraq back to the people of Iraq.
We have no such goals for Iran.
Republican,”Because the goal was to topple a dictator and give Iraq back to the people of Iraq.”I thought the goal was to find the WMD.
An objective,not necessary a goal Infernal B. Besides they did find WMD, scuds and scud parts, mustard gas, and yellow cake, enriched uranium all ready to go to pack into dirty bombs.
Republican-”Because the goal was to topple a dictator and give Iraq back to the people of Iraq.”
Econ101-”The Shiites and the Sunis are killing each other daily”
There was only one reason the Iranians returned our hostages after 400+ days. Fear. They were absolutely petrified over what Ronald Reagan might do. Were they afraid of Jimma’ Carter? They thought he was a joke, weak, and insignificant. Reagan however talked tough and was known as someone who meant what he said.
Unfortunately the Brits don’t have one person in their entire country who still possesses a backbone, so unless the US can come up with someone those hostages better get used to humus, cause they’re going to be there for a while. As long as the “Skirts” are in charge, Iranians will continue to do as they like.
Women you know are weak and can be discarded at will. Both the Brits and the US have women in positions of authority so the Iranians are reasonably sure they can just wait until we are as weak as the “Skirts” can make us and then, Bob’s your uncle, nukes on Pennsylvania Ave.
You don’t believe this, read the Koran or find speeches by Mullahs in the UK and Australia (where a gang of rapists should have been let go, because women are evil and tempters- according to the #1 mullah there) Go ahead find out for yourself, I dare you.
GS: link to London Times article describing the seizure of the Brits by the Revolutionary Guard, to complete my set of links to you on the involvement of the Grand Ayatollah with military forces.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1560788.ece
The Poster Girl for the Left, Rosie ODonnell says the Iran Hostage situation is a hoax.
This is pretty much SOP for Ahmadenijhad. He was one of the student hostage takers in the Iranian Hostage crisis during the Carter years. Seems he got a lot of mileage out of it then and wants to play again. I hope the Brits decide they don’t want to play.
She also sez that 9/11 was an inside job.
Rosie is a nutcase.
outlander – I think the claim about Ahmanidinijad has been brought into question.
She also says, my sausage fingers are good for making ………………
Ben- I think there is a lot of photo evidence that damn sure looks like him.
Thanks for the link VT. Their internal politics are Byzantine.
I remember reading that sanford but also a lot of questions.
What has been produced by the Brits as GPS evidence?
Interesting question. I assume the GPS unit they were carrying is in Iranian hands. Do they transmit somehow? Can they be monitored remotely?
MSM reports that the Brits have those #’s and were going to release them to bolster their claim.Haven’t seen ‘em yet.
We aren’t quite in a position anymore to take the high moral ground on prioner rights, Bush drove us into the low ground.
Seanmahair –Unfortunately the Brits don’t have one person in their entire country who still possesses a backbone.
I don’t know about that, that British royal kid (what his name) that is fighting in the service might turn out to be a real butt kicker when he enters political office.He is already going against and for traditions of royalty in a round about way.
Problem is wiseman, he will have a sense of what it is like to serve. That might make him less likely to send people to their deaths. Unlike our bunch who repeatedly ducked service.
Steve as bad as Abu Ghraib was no prisoner was ran through a wood grinder, no one was dropped feet first slowly into a vat of acid, no one was beheaded, no one was raped, etc.. They were humililiated and forced to do things that went against their religious beliefs but they did live to tell about it.
In no way am I excusing what happened. Heads rolled over this as well they should have. And as much as we hear about Gitmo, I hear democrats that come back from there telling about the cleanliness and the fair treatments of the prisoners. They say the food is good and every effort is made to line up their diets with religious beliefs. Prayer rugs are provided and the koran was never flushed, this was a figment in the fertile imagination of a network reporter. To say Bush has taken the low road is a bit of an exaggeration don’t you think. I can see it now when/if the Brits are not released unharmed it will be the fault of Bush and his brutal treatment of prisoners of war. Another hate American first defense.
ksgrm – any evidence the Iranians are doing any of those things? Or are you referring to our ally Saddam?
Attempting to place borders on militant Islam is driving this country straight to hell.
ya and I am ride you all the way!
HT I must have missed something. I was talking about the things that went wrong at Abu Ghraib compared to the things that were documented as having been done to Iraqi prisoners under Saddam and his sons.
Vaughn – good articles, thanks.
It seems you are correct, the IRGC, under the direction of the leading clerics, has not only been responsible for abducting the Brits – but, if the American Thinker article is correct, for fostering and subsidizing the growth of terrorism that has been directed against our American soldiers and the Iraqi people for the last few years.
Where I’m still unsure is on the issue of who has the deciding power, Ahmadinejad, or the clerics?
Modern Iranians MUST not want Sharia Law implemented – they have tasted better…so who will stop the religious nuts?
Knowing it is the cult-faction in Iran that has kidnapped the Brits makes the situation that much MORE worrisome. They are either very brave, very stupid, or they are much more powerful than we assume.
The American Thinker seems to think GWB is trying not to ‘label’ the cult-troops for fear of stepping on toes.
I disagree – we are not differentiating between the controlling sects because if we MUST go in – we need to go in against a nation – not, as we did in Iraq, against a shadow-enemy.
Ahmadinejad better get control of the nuts in his nation. Or someone else will.
I have to qualify my post by saying that if, in the unlikely event, it is determined that the Brits WERE in Iranian waters – all things change. At that point EU would need to step up and apologize.
But, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Ahmadinejad is the head nut.
“This is pretty much SOP for Ahmadenijhad. He was one of the student hostage takers in the Iranian Hostage crisis during the Carter years”
Although I will have to do some searching Outlander, I am pretty sure that our CIA has stated he was not one of those that took the hostages during the Carter years.
Kia – he’s definitely a NUT – there’s no argument at all, but the most dangerous nuts are the ones who want everyone in the world to capitulate to Islamic Sharia Law, and they will kill anyone who stands in their way of achieving that end.
Ahmadinejad has lost his marbles, and I don’t really know what happened – but he isn’t even trying to get down on the floor and find them and shove them back in that hole in his head.
Writerdog, his involvement with the Iranian hostage crisis indicates there is enough reason (if we must) to go in – and hold Iran (as a nation) responsible.
At some point, we’re going to have to belly up to the bar and figure out a real solution to the threat from Islamic terrorism.
That solution isn’t appeasement. We have to remember that it is allowable in Islam to lie – if it benefits the ’cause.’
Just knowing that makes any statement that comes from them…suspect.
Interesting question becomes how do we exploit the devisions within Iran? I fear if we attack them in any way we will strengthen the fundies there at the expense of the reformers. In fact, the fundies can label the reformers as being “appeasers” toward the west.
GS – in regards to “it is allowable to lie” – that seems to be what I have heard in regards to WMDs etc from this White House. It seems like all sorts of extremists say that – “if it benefits the ’cause’”
Well in my search for the report that the CIA stated that Ahmadinejad was not one identifed as being a part of the Iran hostage crisis. I decovered that I am wrong or at least he was a member of the student group that planned it.
Ben it is called a “Noble lie”
wd – can you clarify your comments about ahmadinijad and the hostage taking? Not sure where your ‘negatives’ are.
GSheidan -”We have to remember that it is allowable in Islam to lie – if it benefits the ’cause.’Just knowing that makes any statement that comes from them…suspect.”
Couldn’t you replace the word “Islam” with “Bush’s world” and it mean the samething or is that the exception
Once again I see the “Fighting Keyboard Platoon” hard at work talking about how “we” will do this, or “we” oughta do that, or some such stupidity. If you people are really so gung-ho to advance your ideals about how YOUR version of what they should do is better than their own, the US MILITARY is still looking for volunteers. Or are you “manly men” too much of a bunch of namby pambys to do more than talk? Have any of you ever put your behinds on the line for this country, are are you just a bunch of Lip Service Commandos out to try and impress us with your ruff talk? We have absolutely NO IDEA of what truly precipitated the events between Britain and Iran, but already I see the zeal for ANOTHER STUPID WAR in the MidEast of arrogance. Why not let those 2 countries solve their issues, and we just sit this one out? Diplomacy is going to be the best way out of this, and anything we do will only make it worse.Oh yeah, before you start yammering about whether or not I was unfair calling you out like this, I spent 2+ DECADES in the uniform, in more countries than most people can find in an atlas.As for Seamhair who thinks that with the “skirts” in charge, no one takes us seriously? NewsFlash: It’s not us they blow off, just the ones that think like you do.
The only question to me is this- did the Brits intrude into Iranian waters or not? If they did and they were apprehended for doing so, what is the problem? Apologize and its over. And stay on your own side of the fence from now on!
The GPS data has already been shown to the UN to prove the British sailors were in Iraqi waters, not Iranian waters.
Iran used this for propaganda period.
Anyone who thinks Iran did not have evil intentions in this affair needs a dose of reality.
Yes, it seems as if they are pushing buttons. Are they just stupid or do they have something up their sleeves.
writerdog
I read that CIA opinion too, when they released it, re Amedinajad
Question: Isnt a “wanna-be” nut sometimes more dangerous than the real thing?
Think of some of the brutal murders done by kids who want to impress older gang bangers!
Anyway, anyone who claims to be a “hero” of the criminals that took over the US Embassy is dangerous. Perhaps more dangerous if his claim is a delusional lie!
Don’t let Jimmie Cricket Carter be in charge of the rescue mission, he’ll screw it up for sure. Tony Blair will decide that George the W got him in this mess, so it’ll be GWB’s job to get his people out. Don’t worry, Tony, George the W will give them a ‘thumb’s up’, say the magic words, ‘Git ‘Er Done’. That’s it! A little ’shock ‘n awe’ and MISSON ACCOMPLISHED. See, Tony, nothing to it!
Sure the only real reference to him and the hostage taking at our Embassy is that he was a member of a student group of ultra conservatives would planned the siege of the Embassy but there was no mention of him being one of the actually students that carried it out. He did advocate the overtaking of the Russian Embassy though.
Eron thank you, I was sure I remember watching the CIA had cleared him of being one of the hostage takers on the evening news. But I tend to watch a lot of news and read a lot news sometime I may have lost something.
The GPS data should be the arbitrator as to whether or not the Brits were in Iran’s waters. If they were they should apologize and that should be that. If, on the other hand, the GPS shows that the Brits were not in Iran’s waters then Iran should release the Brits, apologize to England and pay some compensation to the sailors for their time in captivity.
Reagan demonstrated that he was a man not to mess with when we lost 250 marines to one of the first big terrorist attacks. He clearly emboldened the enemy, and showed how successful these tactics can be. So what were you saying about Carter?
Didn’t both our embassy and the marine barracks get blown up when Reagan was in?
I remember the barracks, don’t remember the embasy.
Guess the embassy too.”Before all this settled in, however, the misbegotten adventure in Lebanon ended in disaster. On October 23 a suicide bomber with ties to the Syrians blew up the U.S. military barracks at the Beirut airport, killing 241 Marines. Morris quotes Reagan’s angry diary entries when, earlier in the year, a car bomb had killed dozens of Americans, including the top CIA man in the region, at the U.S. embassy. Perhaps suspecting that the diary might become public or perhaps out of an old-fashioned propriety, Reagan’s curses on the terrorists were never fully spelled out: h—l or d—n and never the Lord’s name in vain—a curious habit given the president’s inexhaustible pleasure in off-color jokes.”
Interesting …
“including the top CIA man in the region”
And we make a big deal out of the claim that the Iranian diplomats we have siezed might be spies.
Why all the President Carter bashing. When the Iranian backed Hezbollah blew up the Marine barracks in Beruit in 1983 killing 241 Americans President Reagan, say it ain’t so… cut and ran.
Guess the Bushies and Reaganites don’t want to talk about that.
I wonder how close BushCo. would allow an Iranian warship to come to one of our coasts?
I’m thinking within 200 miles they’d sink the sucker . . .
The fire’s in their eyes and their words are really clearSo beat it, just beat itYou better run, you better do what you canDon’t wanna see no blood, don’t be a macho manYou wanna be tough, better do what you canSo beat it, but you wanna be badJust beat it, beat it, beat it, beat itNo one wants to be defeatedShowin’ how funky and strong is your fightIt doesn’t matter who’s wrong or rightJust..