It’s been a tough month for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The latest bad news: Iran’s oil export revenues are plummeting.
CNN reports that oil revenue has been declining at up to 12 percent a year, mostly because of Iran’s neglect of its oil infrastructure and perceived hostility to foreign investment. If the trend continues, oil revenue could disappear by 2015.
In a report written for the National Academy of Sciences, author Roger Stern said that if the United States can “hold its breath” for a few years, it may find a cash-strapped Iran quite a bit less belligerent than it is now — an excellent reason, he says, to put off any plans to take on Iran militarily.
Posted by Dave Knadler
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24 Comments
Now is the time for Bush to act on the Iraqi Study Group’s recommedation to form a dialogue with Iran and Syria. Will he do it?
The stated reason for nuclear power is to replace fossil fuel dependence. Many in the petrochemical industry have long said that hydrocarbon resources are better used as feedstocks rather than burned. Much more long-term profit potential.
While I’m not quite ready to accept the Iranian explanation concerning its nuclear development at face value in toto, the above lends credence to the argument that the enrichment program is, indeed, for power and not weaponry.
From the article …
“The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them,” Stern said. “Here is one problem that might solve itself.”
Think Bush is dumb enough to unite them?
Ben, I hope not; but the track record is far from encouraging…
What happens if the ruling collition falls apart and Iran is hit with a civil war? What happens to the oil reserves? What will gas prices top out at if it happens?
I agree with both Ben and Vaughn in that bombing Iran for any reason at this time would be political suicide. It would make no sense at all. The people of Iran are making waves about the current president, and apparently the ruling party is doing nothing to stop it. Very interesting, but could also be VERY expensive to us.
In 2004 and again in 2006 I was told that I should vote GOP because “the terrorists” wanted the dems to win. In 2004 that tactic worked in many ways.
Now consider Iran. A ‘right-wing’ candidate says the moderate opposition is backed by the Zionists/US. Same tactic. THEY took political science too.
The Clerics hold power in Iran. The elected officials such as Ahmadinejad does not have the power to get Iran involved into a war or an action not approved by the Clerical group.
If the purse of Iran is having some leakage problems, the Clerics will put back on the reigns to their more conservative Islamic beliefs regardless of what the elected or anyone else thinks.
JM, another scenario strikes me as being equally plausible; the Clerics, recognizing the Shia majority in Iraq, increases support for them, with a view to ‘picking up the pieces’ once the civil war ends with the Shia in power, gaining access to increased revenue under an agreement with the Iraqi government on oil production, sale. If I read correctly, Iran currently must import gasoline to meet demand; if the Iraqi infrastructure includes refining, surely a favorable agreement for gasoline importation may be reached under these circumstances as well. It would help calm the populace short term, as the nukes come on line for purposes of electricity generation, and, depending upon any agreement, will provide needed funding for reconstruction of the Iranian infrastructure.
Good observation VT. It used to be that Iran had to deal with a fairly strong hostile adversary on its west. Now they have the opportunity to work with their ally Syria to devide up the spoils of a shattered Iraq. Good thing for Iran that somebody shattered their enemy.
Obviously the same lowlife that used my nic on the other thread is again using my nic on this thread. This person must really think they clever, funny or cute. But, unfortunately, they have shown themselves to be exactly what they are – cowards and obviously devoid of any rationale thought.
The posting at 3:49pm IS NOT MINE.
Hey, troll – why not show your real colors – you know, yellow
Very acute observation Vaughn. Not a scenario I would like to see fleshed out, but probably more realistic than others I have read. Keen eyes…
Obviously the troll dissing Suza must be a Bush lover – enough said about devoid of thought.
I wonder what it is that drives a troll like this one? Obviously a very deep-seated realization of personal inferiority coupled with self-loathing. He was probably one of those who would wet himself well into grade school. As a result, he was the constant butt of cruel jokes because he ’smelled bad.’ Most of the time such sad children grow out of it. Unfortunately there are cases such as these …
Unfortunately, because his cry for help is anonymous he cannot be helped.
Bullys, punks and trolls will always hide. The light is too much for them to bear. For an individual thought to enter their heads would require an IQ something above freezing. Obviously, that will never happen. Help? they don’t need help. What they need is to be ignored, but, unfortunately, like certain politicians (or political wannabes), they will keep disgracing us with their ignorant presence
This is the 1st time this has ever happened to me, so I wasn’t quite sure what to think. I realize that there are insecure people who get some kind of thrill out of trolling but for the life of me, I just don’t understand how a person could waste time just showing their total ignorance.
Now is the time for Bush to act on the Iraqi Study Group’s recommedation to form a dialogue with Iran and Syria. Will he do it?
Yeah, lets wait a few years. Maybe 10 or so, until they have a complete arsenal of nukes. Yeah, great idea.
Jesus H. Christ I’m so fucking stupid I make myself puke. Would someone run over me in their car so I can put myself out of all of your misery?
Just be patient. Like all the neo socialist countries Iran will run out of gas soon too.
suza
(The REAL one)
In a way, you might consider this a badge of honor.
You haven’t really “made it” here until you’ve been trolled by one of the narrow minded little bushbots. It means you have completely defeated them in the arena of debate.
When they cannot argue intelligently, they revert to the cold, narrow thinking, small folks that at their core they truly are.
suza 1troll bushbot little conservative”suza” 0
Congratulations!
In mid 2007 the WE Blog will institute a sign in system to prevent the phenomenon known as “trolling’.
let hope so …
Iran will go the way of Venezuala. They act like fools, we ignore them, they’ll change leaders. Achneedajob will most likely be assasinated for getting his groove on while watching T&A recently.Hugo is just a puffy faced slob who will suffer an assasination as well.Signed,Nostrodomus
We should NEVER take on Iran militarily! Please, we don’t need another quagmire like Iraq!
Iran is SLOWLY going broke?
How about a blog on how the U.S. is RAPIDLY going broke under Cuckoo Bananas “spend more, tax less” brilliant plan to run up the national debt for eternity.
The plan is working, btw . . .