The buzz is growing about a possible change of hands in one or both houses of Congress in November, but it could just be wishful Democratic thinking. Columnist Steve Kraske counted the reasons why in The Kansas City Star: The power of incumbency. The multitude of safe seats, thanks to politically savvy redistricting. Democrats’ failure to recruit top candidates. And the nation’s continuing conservative bent. And though Kraske rightly notes that Rep. Jim Ryun (in photo), R-Topeka, probably should be facing a tough fight, having had to deny making a “sweet real estate deal” related to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, it’s hard to imagine Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda doing better than she did two years ago. And in Kansas, Kraske notes, “the last incumbent to lose was Republican Vince Snowbarger in 1998.”
Posted by Rhonda Holman
Registered?
Commenting on WE Blog now requires you to be a Kansas.com member. Use the links above to register, if you haven't already, or to log in.Contact us
Follow us
Daily Archives
-
Recent Comments
- Raptor on Open thread 11/21
- janeeyre on Open thread 11/21
- Regular on Open thread 11/21
- XXX on Open thread 11/21
- Daniel on ACORN stole election?
- Daniel on Open thread 11/21
- satatom on Open thread 11/21
- satatom on ACORN stole election?
- Wahine_Tara on Open thread 11/21
- Wahine_Tara on Open thread 11/21
39 Comments
Yaaaawwwwwnnnn
Read something interesting for a change.
http://www.danielpipes.org/article/3560
At this point it really is “Us” aganist “Them”. But the “us” is the moderates of both parties. the “Them” those wishing to bring this country down. Religious right, Neo-cons, Israel, those so blinded by party politics that they would rather see the country destroyed then some one on the other side win.
The question in 2006 and then in 2008 will be who has the more voters the Us or the Them? Not whiether someone is a Republican or a Democrat.
Things could get interesting. Kansas will lose another congressional seat in 2012.
There is going to be a shift of congressional seats to the south and south west, which is primarily Republican. Most seats will be lost from the N.E. part of the US, which is heavily Democrat.
I seriously doubt that Democrats can take control this year, but they only have a few years left until the Republicans solidify an long run of control, like the Democrats did in the last century.
Joe Williams,
And piss it away by alienating a mushrooming Hispanic/Latino voting population. It is possible that the last few weeks may have cost the GOP the next thirty years.
I think Tanker Todd (R-Boeing) could be in trouble. Didn’t he campaign on term limits? And promise lots of pork-tanker jobs?
Williams, wanna provide a link for this statement?
“Most seats will be lost from the N.E. part of the US, which is heavily Democrat”
You are out of your ever lovin’ mind! The seats will be lost from the midwest where population is declining, not from the northeast, where population is stable or growing.
Seats will indeed go south and west, but their gain will be KANSAS’ loss, not the northeast.
What will happen when kansas loses another seat? The big first, which already stretches from the Colorado boarder to Emporia, will get even bigger.
Population is the key, not wishful thinking. The northeast will keep its seats, the south and southwest will gain seats.
And the flyover country? It will continue to empty out faster than bush’s supporters are bailing from his failed policies.
CF
…or piss it away by alienating their base, who believe people ought to follow the law like most of their ancestors did.(proud product of German, Ukrainian, and Hungarian great grand parents, all of whom followed a legal process in coming to the Great Plains)
Don’t misjudge the hispanic vote CF. Many of the Mexican and Central Americans who came here legally (the ones who vote) arent crazy about the ones who break the law and the ones who talk about “Reqonquista”.
The real wild card in the migration of seats toward the sunbelt will be the Hispanic vote. Catholic, very conservative on family values issues. However, rather liberal on economic and social justice issues.
Perhaps someone should read the Bishops’ Letter on Social Justice. Makes me look like a conservative.
KFG, you are right, there will be a few seats lost in the midwest, but there will also be in the N.E.
Here is 2000.
Seats gained+ 2 seats +1 seatArizona (8) California (53)Florida (25) Colorado (7)Georgia (13) Nevada (3)Texas (32) North Carolina (13)Seats lost–1 seat –2 seatsConnecticut (5) New York (29)Illinois (19) Pennsylvania (19)Indiana (9)Michigan (15)Mississippi (4)Ohio (18)Oklahoma (5)Wisconsin (8)
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0884841.html
6 prodomently Democrat states lost seats to 4 Republican states.
7 prodomently Republican states gain seats to 1 Democrat gain.
Republican gain of 3, Democrat loss of 5.
This trend will continue.
It doesn’t matter if population is growing or becoming stable. Kansas is stable and slightly growing, yet we will have lost 2 Congressional districts in 10 years.
It doesn’t matter if population is growing or becoming stable. Kansas is stable and slightly growing, yet we will have lost 2 Congressional districts in 10 years.
Just the other states are gaining population like mad. And with the retirees coming into time, there will be a massive migration of people to the South and South West.
It is the gerrymandering of the districts that makes change in the House or Senate problematic as Kraske did note. Too, while the public is very unhappy with Congress as a whole they ususally will give a pass to their own member of it as long as the pork flows in. And the gravy back to GOP held districts is running pretty deep these days.
It looks pretty static to me in 06. But I bet there are a lot of GOP candidates that will politely turn down endorsements from pResident bush!
Farther out? I think assertions of a conservative bent to the future are mistaken.
Joe? Those NE seats moving south and southwest? Those and the ones kfg mentions are moving because the people are moving. In the case of the NE seats, most of those people are moving cause they are getting older. And they are not predisposed to favor the party that hates Social Security. (Why do you think bush threw them a medicare drug plan?) The seats may move. And the red states they move to may go blue.
I seriously doubt they will go blue, but they will have a greater percentage of registared Democrats. That’s about it.
Lose a seat or 3 in the Northeast. They still stay blue.
“……they will have a greater percentage of registered Democrats. That’s about it.”
Hey Joe? In FLORIDA that’s enough. You do remember Florida and how it figures in the big picture don’t you?
Here are some quotes from an opposing point of view, Joe.
Copyright 2006 MediaNews Group, Inc.Lowell Sun (Massachusetts)
Massachusetts is almost certain to lose one of its 10 congressional seats in 2012, when congressional seats are reapportioned to reflect changes in population.
snip
Seats in Congress are reallocated following each U.S. Census, a head count performed in each year ending in a zero.
snip
Massachusetts is the only New England state projected to lose a congressional seat in 2012.
What might the overall shift in congressional seats mean? More on the subject from the same source:
Who would be the big winners? Florida would gain nine seats. Texas would pick up eight seats, and Arizona an additional five.
snip
Clark Bensen, a Republican redistricting consultant in Virginia, said population trends are being driven by a massive influx of Hispanic immigrants into the southern United States, especially Texas.
“Hispanic populations are dispersed all over the country, although they’re not going into the Northeast as much,” Bensen said. “We used to term Hispanic groups as monolithic groups, but they’re anything but monolithic.”
With projections showing some of the “red” Republican states picking up electoral votes and many “blue” Democratic states losing votes, Republicans and Democrats differ over the political fallout.
It’s difficult to predict how many of the Hispanic immigrants will vote once they become citizens, Bensen said.
“Who’s going to pick them up is anyone’s guess. Obviously, both parties will be interested in those populations. It will be a much longer time until many of these immigrants are integrated into the voting population.”
Kimball Brace, executive director of Election Data Services, a Washington firm specializing in redistricting, said many Democratic voters are moving to Southern red states and changing the voting patterns.
“We are seeing Democrats moving out of the cities and moving into the suburbs, and their political alliances are, to some degree, staying with them. Some of these communities are not as ‘red’ as they used to be,” Brace said.
Key battleground states of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, such as Michigan and Ohio, also are expected to shed congressional seats in the coming decades. It’s not clear what the impact will be, because those states may have the same numbers of Republican and Democratic voters, Brace said.”
It isnt the lock you think it is Williams. And the last I checked, many of the states predicted to lose seats are considered to be midwestern. Like Wisconsin,
Joe, with all due respect, I clicked on your link. The title is:
Congressional Apportionment, 2000
It says NOTHING about trends or projections for 2012. I searched the same site for 2012 projections, and it did not produce any.
The past is not always a predictor of the future.
Please run Ben, please.
Ben already DID run, and I would support him if he ran again.
So blow, isnt it your turn to stop blowing and start running?
I know Nancy Boyda did considerably worse in that election than I thought. I know they were running neck-and-neck in the polls damn near up to Election Day, but, hey. . I don’t live in Lawrence!
That said, without some help from Diebold {wink}, I think Ryun is going to lose.
Nancy Boyda lost because she lied to the gay community. She even admitted so at the dem meeting in March of 05.
At the same meeting in 04, she courted our votes, solicited and took our money, and then later turned around and said she would support the federal ban on gay rights. She winked at us and said she “had to do it” to get elected.
I call bullshit on that one. Lies are lies no matter who tells them. Ryun also tells some whoppers, but he is at least a straight up hater. Vichy dems just give me heartburn.
She lost a bid she could have won because she was a hypocrit. After her positon switch, MANY gay people wrote to her, in an organized campaign, and asked for their campaign donations back. They also failed to check ANY box in that race on election day.
She made this bone headed wingnut pronouncement near the election. That is why the polls showed her close, but in the end, she alientated her base by switching positions and pandering to the wingnuts.
Gee, do ya think that might be a lesson for governor leadership? A lesson to the whole kdp? Dont take us for granted. We have already proven we can withhold our vote on election day.
Like I have said before, what difference does it make what party we support when they screw us equally?
I will support Boyda this time again, and give her another chance to defeat the heinous ryun. But the lesson is that you can not say what you please and then expect our votes no matter what.
Running as the best republican possible might work for governor leadership, but taking the base for granted is not generally advisable.
Indeed. Quite the object lesson. Thanks for clueing me in, KFG.
Why run? My folks win all the elections already.
“The power of the incumbency.”
What a load of unadulterated crap!
Didn’t the Republicans take the House in a massive sweep in ‘94? Didn’t Tanker Todd defeat the incumbent Joe Glickman that year? Didn’t Senate Majority Leader Tom “Milquetoast” Daschle get routed out a few cycles ago?
You start buying into that “incumbency” line, and it’s like why even have an election . . .
True Blue if you keep blowing up the Lib’s Daily Kos talking points they’re going to get VERY grumpy.
That’s your problem, JoeBlow. The Mainstream Media of which The Eagle is a poster child is NOT LIBERAL, nor are they really conservative.
They are STATUS QUO. They believe whatever is, is good and right. Don’t change it.
They write copy to sell ads for corporate sponsors and are themselves owned by a big corporation.
They have a vested interest in making sure that no real economic / political change occurs.
Thanks KFG – and I got a goos taste of Christian Rovian Smear tactics. Les Donovan’s Christian supporters claimed that I was running on the “gay rights” agenda because I was a closet gay. This came as quite a surprise to my wife and son! Gee, I thought one of those “Big Ten” that Christians are supposed to obey said something against lying about people! Maybe Christian Republicans are exempt! I suppose BlowJoe is real proud of this version of Christianity and ethics!
Yeah Ben, and check out hank’s post under the last concealed carry thread where he just SMEARS JR, impunes his parenting of his son, and hank also declares himself above the law. Quite an interesting read.
Heheh. Ben, since I am not from wichita, is this the same Les “I can win with gambling money but you cant vote on it” Donovan?
Lies, double standards, character smears, and all the while tax exempt? Swiftboating on the taxpayers’ dime? Just like rovester?
I guess the evangelical rovian smear groups think IOKIYAAR.
Yep – same one! Of course, he didn’t do it himself; he left that to his “Christian” friends in GodArchy. That way he could claim to my wife at Mass that he “didn’t do it”
“Hispanic populations are dispersed all over the country, although they’re not going into the Northeast as much,”
I guess all the Puerto Ricans and Dominicans and Cubans who populate the eastern seaboard states aren’t considered Hispanics in Bensen’s “research” of Hispanic migration!
Sorry, Tru…the Eagle is very slightly left of center. The NYTimes, WPost, NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR are WAY left. Hey, that’s fine, they have a First Amendment right to be liberal. Just don’t insult my intelligence, MSM, and tell me that you’re not.
Joe Blow,Way left of what? What is your reference point, and where is dead-center?
Why Fox News of course!!
JoeB–
The only people who believe that The New York Times and The WaPo are “way, way left” are the the way, way RIGHT.
We on the left don’t see them as left, far from it. The Times put Judith “I Kiss Cheney Ass” Miller on the front page day after day, week after week in the “new and gathering threat of WMD’s.”
The WaPo did the same thing–total shills of the administration.
Meanwhile, real stories like depleted uranium weapons, covert wars against defiant leftist countries, and off-shore tax cheats aren’t even investigated let alone reported on.
Might upset the status quo . . .
This is tired tripe. BTW, there have been many stories about the Dems recruiting good candidates, including far more veterans than the fascists, and the polls are showing this year to be the mirror of 1994. We will just have to wait until November to see what will happen, but you can plainly see right now that what the media deems improbable, they will go to any length to make a self-fulfilling prophecy. We on the left will have something to say about that.
As far as the ‘conservative’ nation: really, try to get out of Kansas more often, or even read something beyond GOP press releases. You would realize that in the last election, Democrats received more total votes in House and Senate races than fascists, however the gerrymandered districts played a massive role in the GOP pickup of five seats. That’s ok, keep bleating away. The sheeple eat it right up, especially in Wichita, Kayansas.
Actually it’s Dan Glickman. He is a good man too.
Many Democrats were wrapped in a lot of scandals prior to 1994, and he was caught in the check cashing scheme.
The Republican Party is much better at pulling negative news to their favor, but go to far and it will back fire, like they did with Clinton in the Monica affair.
Dan Glickman lied to me when he was a congressman back in the 1980s. I had written to him opposing blanket amnesty that they just started doing back then. He wrote me back, saying it was a one time deal and the boarder would be secure and the laws would be enforced. I NEVER voter for him again after that!
All four of our representatives espouse supporting our troops. Yet all four voted in favor of the appropriations amendment in April that removed 2 Billion dollars from Military Personnel progams. Enough is enough — our government over the last 40 years or so has failed us on every level. Dump em all and start with a clean slate.