It’s a gray, soggy, dreary Monday in the Wichita area, as rain continues to pound down on already sodden soil.
As I listen to the police scanner sporadically report the latest in a line of flood warnings for the region, I’m reminded of a meteorological detail that can be significant but is often overlooked by the public: how fast a storm system is moving.
When it’s a supercell, whether a tornado moving at 30 miles an hour or 60 miles an hour will have a significant impact on how much time people have to get to safety. When it’s a thunderstorm dumping steady rain, the difference between 10 miles an hour and 30 miles an hour can mean the difference between a healthy summer dousing - or flooding.
And on the seventh day, severe weather isn’t resting - or so it would appear. The Storm Prediction Center has the eastern two-thirds of Kansas and portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan in a moderate risk for severe weather today.
Accordingly, the National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 5 p.m. for 50 counties in Kansas (nearly half the state), and forecasters warn that thunderstorms are expected to “explode” into supercells this afternoon along and east of a line from Salina to Newton. That’s basically along I-135 and through the Flint Hills region….
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, the weather service warns in a statement, “but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.”
As residents and authorities of several north-central Kansas towns begin to sort through the considerable damage wrought by tornadoes Wednesday night, National Weather Service damage survey teams are converging on the stricken areas.
Chance Hayes, warning coordination meteorologist for the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service, has already left for Salina, where several buildings were damaged or destroyed. There are conflicting reports about whether the damage was caused by a tornado or straight-line winds.
No such confusion exists about the damage at Chapman, Manhattan or near Soldier. Meteorologists from the NWS Topeka office will be studying the damage in Manhattan, Chapman and surrounding areas.
The Storm Prediction Center cataloged 52 reports of tornadoes Thursday night in Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa - 21 of them in Kansas.
Hail the size of softballs killed several cattle near Ellsworth, meteorologist Leon Wasinger said.
Stones of that size could kill animals (even people) outright.
What happens most often in such cases, Wasinger said, is that the cattle are so badly battered by the hail stones that their owners decide to put them down. The livestock toll can be high in such circumstances, because cattle left outdoors tend to clump together against stormy weather to protect themselves and each other.
The Discovery Storm Chasers are in Omaha and Sioux City, Iowa, this afternoon, getting into position for a severe weather outbreak later today.
Those are good launch points, because the Storm Prediction Center has eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, the corner of Missouri, a morsel of Minnesota and a swath of northcentral Kansas in a moderate risk today.
“The greatest tornado threat would be…along the warm front near the Iowa-Minnesota border,” the SPC synopsis states. “This activity could pose a risk of strong/long-track tornadoes if it occurs.”
The Hastings, Neb., office of the National Weather Service warns that thunderstorms forming in northern Kansas could feature hail up to the size of baseballs and damaging winds up to 70 miles an hour. “A few tornadoes will be possible as well,” a weather service statement reports.
The most likely area of storm formation will be southeast of a line from Geneva, Neb., to Plainville, the weather service predicts.
…but that doesn’t mean the dire predictions for a tornado outbreak Thursday were wrong.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornado reports, including 11 in Kansas. The tornadoes simply happened north and west of the Wichita area. Tornadoes were also reported in Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, South Dakota and Colorado.
“I think we probably did dodge a bullet a little bit” in terms of tornadoes, Reno County Emergency Management Director Bill Guy said.
But Sylvia reported significant power outages and tree damage, and hail as large as golf balls broke windows and damaged cars in and around Hutchinson, he said. Power poles were flattened in Barton, Kingman, Harper and Sumner counties.
Hail as large as golf balls and winds of 100 miles an hour were reported in Kingman County, and wind gusts of more than 80 miles an hour were reported in Anthony and five miles south of Goddard. Rose Hill reported trees downed and houses damaged.
Tree and roof damage was also reported in Wichita, along with scattered power outages. But few could argue that the city emerged from the storms in much better shape than many feared as the outbreak loomed.
Storm chasers dream about large tornado outbreaks on the Great Plains. That’s what forecasters anticipate today — but this could be much closer to a nightmare for chasers and even storm spotters.
The storms will be moving incredibly fast for this time of year —- 65 miles an hour by some estimates.
“Storms are going to be moving so fast, and it’s going to be very hard to keep up with them,” said Kevin Darmofal, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wichita.
While supercell thunderstorms figure to be isolated early in the outbreak — meaning they’ll be easier to see and track — forecasters expect them to embed in lines of thunderstorms later in the evening.
“You could have tornadoes that would be very hard to see,” Darmofal said.
This weather pattern is not like the supercells that developed in the days leading up to and through Memorial Day weekend.
“They were definitely more discreet, and easier to chase,” Darmofal said. “Today it’s going to be a little bit different.”
….around dawn this morning over Wichita were an indication of the “low-level jet stream” that is in place over the Great Plains — a component that will be feeding the strong storms expected today.
I heard a couple of callers tell KFDI that this morning reminded them of April 26, 1991, which has become known as the day of the “Andover tornado” — which also hit Haysville and south Wichita and is the last EF5 tornado to strike Wichita.
I remember stepping outside that morning and going “Uh-oh,” because the heat and instability were unmistakable even at 8 a.m. That same stickiness wasn’t as apparent this morning - at least, to me - though the unsettled atmosphere is obvious.
That’s not to say Wichita has nothing to worry about. I’m just not going to be among those who say “This feels like April 26.” Some meteorologists are comparing these conditions with a previous outbreak, but it’s June 8, 1974…not April 26.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of northern Kansas and portions of Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri in a moderate risk for severe weather today….and it pointedly mentions that the mostly likely area for tornadoes is central and northern Kansas this evening.
“Supercells will be likely,” the center’s synopsis states. “These could yield very large hail, high wind and tornadoes.”
Even southcentral Kansas could face some severe weather, so be alert. Almost all of the state is included in a slight or moderate risk.
……here’s a photo I took at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City Saturday night of some compelling clouds that added a sense of gloom (appropriate for Royals fans this season and Indians fans lately). Chance Hayes of the National Weather Service here in Wichita tells me they appear to be the underside of a spreading cumulonimbus anvil — which makes sense, since storms hit Kansas City early Sunday morning.
The poem “Casey at the Bat” was first published in the San Francisco Examiner on June 3, 1888, and there was a Casey at the bat for the Indians in Kansas City, too: Wichita State alum Casey Blake.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather threat to moderate for much of central Kansas, as well as portions of Oklahoma and Nebraska.
SPC meteorologists are warning of a “widespread severe threat” that includes the possibility of “longer-lived strong tornadoes.” Of particular concern to meteorologists at the SPC is west-central Kansas, which makes me think of cities such as Great Bend, Dodge City, Hays - and, yes, Greensburg.
A slight risk encompasses most of the western two-thirds of Kansas, stretching as far east as I-135.
Stay tuned, Kansas, and keep an eye on the sky Thursday afternoon and evening.