The National Weather Service will be tweaking its hurricane forecasts for the coming season.
Research has shown that it’s not the strength of a hurricane that dictates the size of the storm surge — it’s the hurricane’s sheer physical size, said Kenneth Graham, meteorologist in charge of the New Orleans branch of the National Weather Service.
Recent large Category 2 hurricanes have generated stronger storm surges over larger areas that small hurricanes with stronger maximum sustained winds, he said.
The challenge for forecasters will be to get residents to take seriously storm surge warnings from hurricanes lower on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which rates hurricane strength by wind speed. The prevailing mindset is that a Category 2 hurricane is less of a threat than a Category 4 or 5, and in some respects — such as storm surge — that isn’t necessarily true.
Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist for the Storm Prediction Center, acknowledged that the false alarm rate for radar-indicated tornadoes is still high. In other words, all too often radar-indicated rotation – which is enough to prompt a tornado warning – doesn’t translate into an actual tornado touchdown. But officials are erring on the side of caution to minimize the possibility of residents being blindsided by a tornado.
Harold Brooks, research meteorologist for the National Severe Storms Laboratory, said tornadoes are possible in many places folks wouldn’t think of — and he had photographs to prove it. One tornado that looked like a classic Great Plains twister was actually photographed in Finland. Another touched down in Venice, Italy. And he had yet another shot of a tornado in South Africa.
But Tornado Alley’s reputation is well-deserved, he said: no place in the world has stronger, longer-lasting tornadoes.
A look at tornado fatality statistics from 2008 reinforces long-held stances – but may surprise some people, too.
Of the 126 people killed by tornadoes, 55% were men. Nearly half – 44% – were killed in mobile homes, and about one-third were in stick-built homes. Fifteen people, including two in Kansas, were killed in their vehicles.
More than one-third of the fatalities were people between the ages of 40 and 59. Young people – those 19 and under – accounted for 13% of the fatalities, while 26% of the deaths involved victims 70 or older.
These numbers were provided by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.
I’m in Norman for a few days to partake in the National Press Foundation’s “Understanding Violent Weather” conference. I’m among 19 media professionals who have converged on Norman from both coasts – and just up I-35.
Today’s topics include basic meteorology, fundamentals of forecasting, lightning, hurricanes and tornadoes. Among the presenters are Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist for the Storm Prediction Center, and Harold Brooks, research meteorologist for the National Severe Storms Laboratory. I’ve interviewed each of them more than once, and met Harold when he made a presentation to the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society a few years ago…so I’m looking forward to their portions of the agenda.
It’s probably a good thing that the forecast for much of this week in the heartland is for calm weather, because I can tell several of the attendees would love to chase tornadoes while they’re here. They don’t get that opportunity much in Spokane, Portland, Yuma or New York.
…..has already come and gone, according to a study in Great Britain.
A Cardiff University psychologist’s formula determined that the third Monday in January is officially the most depressing day of the year. The formula takes into account wintry weather, unpaid Christmas debt, failed New Year’s resolutions and the ratio of motivational levels to the amount of work that needs to be done.
As meteorologists – and anyone who’s lived in Wichita or Kansas for any length of time – will tell you, the “averages” in this part of the country are little more than middle point of careening extremes. There’s rarely anything subtle about weather on the Great Plains.
But a glance at some numbers culled from National Weather Service data can still offer a revealing snapshot of Wichita’s climate.
For instance, Wichita records at least .01 of an inch of moisture on 86 days a year.
It snows at least an inch five times a year.
Heavy fog is reported on 17 days a year.
Thunderstorms, meanwhile, occur on 55 days a year.
And we wonder why storm chasers love lingering near Wichita in the springtime.
Two of the most significant weather records on the books were rewritten in Wichita this year: most rain overall and most rain in a 24-hour period.
But 10 other weather records fell this year, according to the National Weather Service data.
Not surprisingly, the majority of them involved rainfall. February 5, March 17, May 26 and August 9 all set records for most rain for that date.
Just last Friday saw a new record high in Wichita for the day after Christmas: 69, snapping the old record of 64 set in 1976.
May 23, June 7 and November 4 set marks for warmest low temperatures. Records for coolest high temperature, meanwhile, were set on back-to-back days: September 5 and 6. Not surprisingly, the new marks were only one degree apart – 63 on the 5th and 62 on the 6th.
Merry Christmas, Wichita!
As Christmases go, this one is shaping up to be right along the norms for the city. A high in the 40s is right in line for this time of year, based on historical data.
Yes, it’s not a white Christmas, but only about 10 percent of Wichita Christmases are.
As you might expect – this being Kansas and all – the temperature extremes for Dec. 25 are pretty substantial. The record high is 65, set in 1960. The record low, on the other hand, is -6, set in 1983.
The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July was the fifth-warmest since worldwide records began in 1880, according to an analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
This year tied with 2001 and 2003 as the fifth-warmest July in 127 years.
Also, the seven months from January to July 2008 ranked as the ninth warmest seven-month period for combined average global land and ocean surface temperature.
Other notable events in July:
Rains from Hurricane Dolly caused landslides in Guatemala that killed 21 people. The storm, after making landfall at South Padre Island in Texas on July 23 brought torrential rain and flooding to both the Mexican and U.S. sides of the Rio Grande Valley. Nearly 250,000 people in Mexico were left without safe drinking water.
Typhoon Kalmaegi/Helen, which lasted from July 13 to 20, passed over the Philippines, Taiwan, and eastern China, killing at least 18 and causing about $10 million in damage. Some mountainous locations in Taiwan reported more than 43 inches of rain during the storm.
A few days later, Typhoon Fung-wong passed over many of the same areas, dumping nearly 33 inches of rain on Hualien on Taiwan’s east coast. Six deaths were reported and damage exceeded $6 million.
Heavy monsoon rains pelted northern India and Bangladesh between July 5-14, resulting in floods and landslides that claimed 20 lives. Eleven people died in monsoon flooding and landslides in Nepal in early July.
Dick Elder, meteorologist-in-charge at the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service, mentioned a good weather movie: “Let’s not forget “The Perfect Storm,” my favorite.”
Larry Ruthi, the MIC for the Dodge City office of the weather service, prefers a movie indelibly linked to Kansas: “I am not sure whether or not the classic “Wizard of Oz” meets the definition, but I always have liked the tornado scene at the beginning of that movie.”
Greg Carbin, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., offered this response: “I really enjoyed “The Perfect Storm” too! “The Wizard of Oz” should not be missed. My favorite… “Key Largo” is a classic that should be in anyone’s weather movie list!”
I saw a story online recently about “10 Movies You Have to See Before You Die,” and also spotted a couple of discussions about the best sports movies of all time. It made me wonder about the best movies that feature weather as a key component.
“Twister”? “The Day After Tomorrow?” “Key Largo”? Heck, does “Airplane” merit inclusion in the discussion, since a driving rainstorm complicated the landing for the poisoned passengers and crew?
I’m not sure what my #1 would be. I do know it won’t be “Twister.” I vividly remember going to see that movie with several of my siblings in Great Bend (we were gathered out at the farm for one of our annual get-togethers), and we laughed so hard at the preposterous plot points that we annoyed a packed house wanting to believe they were witnessing a riveting drama.
Sorry — when you’ve been through the real thing a time or 12, “Twister” is a real hoot. Great special effects, yes…but a hoot.
Anyway…I welcome your recommendations. I’m sure you’ll come up with some movies I haven’t even thought of.