Forecasters say the 2009 hurricane season is shaping up to be anywhere from ordinary to benign.
Why does this matter in landlocked Kansas? Because the remnants of hurricanes and tropical cyclones can reach the Sunflower State, depending on where they come ashore.
The record-setting rain that fell on Wichita last September came from what was left of Hurricane Lowell, a Pacific hurricane. Because of prevailing jet stream patterns, the leftovers of Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms reach Kansas more often than named storms that come up through the Gulf of Mexico.
Other Pacific hurricanes whose remnants doused Kansas were Kiko in 1989, Paine in 1986 and Waldo in 1985.
Fast-forward to 2009: The National Hurricane Center predicts an average number of named storms during hurricane season, which began June 1 and extends through the end of November. That means anywhere from 9 to 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic Ocean, with a half-dozen or so growing to hurricane strength. Of course, any named storm that hits where you live is a big deal, so such predictions have to be kept in perspective.
Meanwhile, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center predicts anywhere from 3 to 5 tropical cyclones this year. That’s about the average number for any given year, but forecasters say a developing el Nino could lower the total by keeping ocean temperatures cooler than normal.
Cool water temperatures discourage tropical storm development by limiting instability in the atmosphere. As veteran Kansas weather watchers know, thunderstorms feed on atmospheric instability.
I was listening to a Houston Chronicle columnist describe the destruction along the coast left behind by Hurricane Ike, and he said “It looks like a tornado went through there.”
And, yes, based on what photographic evidence I’ve seen, the damage is remarkable. But as he spoke I thought, “I can’t remember the last time someone was talking about devastation and said, ‘It looks like a hurricane went through there.’”
Interesting. Yet this isn’t meant to diminish the destructive potential of hurricanes in any way —- coastal Texas is fresh testimony to their power.
Ask all those people who decided to ride Ike out at home and now wish they hadn’t. Ask them a year from now, when infrastructure and homes are rebuilt but winds pushing above 30 miles an hour induce cold sweats and sleepless nights.
With Ike’s widespread damage as a reminder, will more people heed evacuation orders when a hurricane again threatens the U.S. coastline?
….the metropolitan area should be spared worst-case scenarios.
Chance Hayes, warning coordination meteorologist for the local branch of the National Weather Service, said he is forecasting 4 to 5 inches of rain for Wichita by Sunday night. That’s still a lot of rain, but it’s half what some forecasting models were projecting on Wednesday.
Flooded streets and highways will be a concern this weekend because the soil is already saturated, so be alert and cautious when traveling. Floods – particularly flash floods – kill more people each year than any other weather phenomenon.
Why? Because people underestimate the force and power of water, and 60% of all flood deaths result from people trying to cross flooded roads in vehicles…and the water sweeps them away.
New data from forecast models suggests the remnants of Hurricane Ike may take a more northeasterly track once they reach Oklahoma, sparing Wichita the worst of the rainfall.
But you still may need two hands to count the number of inches dumped on the city between now and early next week.
Rob Cox, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wichita, said bands of heavy showers could bring three to four inches of rain to the metropolitan area by Saturday morning. Even if Ike makes the sharp right turn in Oklahoma now projected by the National Hurricane Center, its track will still be a bit farther west than Gustav, he said.
It’s also larger than Gustav. That means Wichita could be hit by the outer bands of the remnants. Another couple of inches – perhaps more – aren’t out of the question for the city, Cox said. While that’s better than 10 to 12 inches of rain between now and Tuesday, it’s still a lot of rain for a region already pretty saturated by previous rains.
Check forecasts regularly, and watch out for street and stream flooding as the rains persist.
Forecasting models are suggesting Wichita and other parts of Kansas could see several inches of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ike by early next week – though there is still plenty of uncertainty about Ike’s path and its impact on the metropolitan area.
Flooding has to be a concern, since so much of the region is still saturated from recent rains.
Stay tuned to forecasts, and prepare a response plan in the event flooding threatens.
Hurricane Ike appears destined to come ashore in Texas – much farther west than Gustav, which made landfall west of New Orleans in Louisiana.
But the impact on Kansas figures to be very similar.
“It’s going to be deja vu,” said Dick Elder, the meteorologist-in-charge of the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service.
Computer models suggest Ike will come ashore, take a sharp right turn as it links with an upper-level flow and dump on Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and Missouri. Southeast Kansas may suffer a soaking as well, Elder said.
Wichita would be indirectly impacted, much as it was by Gustav: systems moving in from the northwest could stall — or even back up — as Ike bullies its way into the Mississippi Valley.
There’s a chance that Ike could come ashore so far west in Texas that its remnants get caught up in a different weather pattern, Elder said. If that happens, Kansas won’t be touched at all. But it’s too early yet to have a definitive answer.
Stay tuned.
Plenty of uncertainty remains about Hanna’s path, but forecasters say it appears she could strike the Carolinas and then track up the Atlantic coast.
Hanna has already killed at least 26 people in Haiti, and is expected to come ashore sometime early Saturday.
As Hanna bears down on the U.S., residents of the Gulf Coast have begun filtering back home in the wake of Hurricane Gustav. But more than a million homes and businesses across three states were still without electricity on Wednesday and officials said it could take as long as a month to fully restore power.
Farther out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Ike has grown to a Category 4 storm, and Tropical Storm Josephine is gaining strength.
Brian Chambers of Eudora sent me this radar image of Gustav’s remnants as they delivered showers to the Kansas City metropolitan area this morning. He thinks it looks like a teddy bear. People I work with disagree with him.
“I swear no Photoshopping was involved, as I don’t even have that capability!” Brian wrote, adding that that the radar image was taken at 10:08 a.m.
You can see it out the window as I type this a few minutes before 3 p.m.
As Gustav moves northwest from the Gulf of Mexico, it’s pushing other systems out of its way. That shoved a line of showers from east to west through Wichita and southcentral Kansas.
We almost always see storm systems move west to east — so you can accurately announce to your friends that the weather’s really backward in Kansas.
I’m marveling at how well-organized Gustav remains more than 24 hours after coming ashore in Louisiana.
The Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornado reports from Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi.
I did a double-take Monday morning when I heard the Weather Channel report that one tornado in Mississippi was moving west at 83 miles an hour.
Think about that: 83 miles an hour.
I’m checking with SPC officials to see if they have more information from that report. Tornadoes don’t typically move west, but since the outer bands of Gustav were swirling that direction it makes sense.
The 83 mph, however, is a jaw-dropper.