Finger on the Weather

A widespread outbreak of large tornadoes is expected across the central Great Plains today, stretching from Oklahoma to Nebraska and covering most of central and eastern Kansas.

Here is a map showing the Storm Prediction Center’s latest outlook for today.

“The risk is about as high as it gets,” AccuWeather.com chief meteorologist Elliot Abrams said in a prepared statement.

Oklahoma City and Wichita lie in the heart of the tornado threat area that extends from near Wichita Falls, Texas, to near Omaha, Neb. Abrams expects numerous damaging thunderstorms to form after 4 p.m. and continue through much of the night. This outbreak could produce dozens of tornadoes.

A hazardous weather outlook statement from the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service is predictably ominous:

“An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes appears likely across the area for this evening and tonight. Some of the tornadoes could be strong and long-lived with a good chance that they will continue well after sunset this evening, when they will be difficult to see. There is also a good chance that the isolated supercell thunderstorms will produce baseball size hail and damaging winds to 70 miles per hour. The highest threat for strong tornadoes exists along a line from Salina to Newton to Wichita to Wellington.”

AccuWeather Vice President Mike Smith offers insight on today’s storms. He’s saying storms could begin developing as early as noon, so prepare early and be vigilant.

Potent thunderstorms pounded the Wichita metropolitan area Thursday night, flooding streets, knocking down power lines and tree limbs but otherwise sparing the region of serious damage.

A rope tornado touched down briefly north of Colwich, according to the National Weather Service, and softball-sized hail was reported near Mount Hope. Hail as large as baseballs was reported in Goddard.

“I lost about half my fleet due to hail,” Goddard Police Chief Sam Houston said.

Seven police cars lost windshields and sustained substantial body damage in the hail storm, Houston said, and several public works vehicles were damaged as well.

The first photo in the blog was taken by Ted Thomason and shared by the National Weather Service. It shows the area where the tornado touched down, at 261st Street West and 61st Street North. The second photo, by Lee West, was taken from Main Street in Colwich.

Hail about the size of golf balls was reported in several locations and broke vehicle windows near Bentley. This photo of hail stones was taken by Ryan Mitchell in rural Harvey County.

There were multiple reports of 75-mile-an-hour winds in or near El Dorado in Butler County, meteorologist Vanessa Pearce said.

Trees were snapped off and a fence blown over in Andover and more trees and an awning knocked down by strong winds in Towanda, authorities said. In Sumner County, trees were blown over and siding blown off a city building in Belle Plaine.

Nearly three inches of rain fell in west Wichita last night, Pearce said. The 2.82 inches is more than fell in all of May. The heaviest rain, as shown by this precipitation map, fell in portions of western Sedgwick County.

The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted its hazardous weather outlook for today, increasing the potential for strong tornadoes in southeast Kansas and the Wichita metropolitan area to 15%.

To put that figure in perspective, anything above 2% is considered significant. The dashed lines, or “hatched” area, depicts the area in which tornadoes of EF2 strength or greater are possible.

Large hail and damaging winds are also possible with storms that develop in the area.
Stay tuned to weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed southeast Kansas – including Wichita – and a large swath of Oklahoma under a moderate risk for severe weather on Thursday.

Computer models indicate developing weather conditions will “likely result in supercells capable of large hail/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes…over Kansas,” a statement issued by the SPC reads.

The tornado threat is higher in Oklahoma than in Kansas, the statement indicates, and local forecasters tell me the tornado threat in Kansas is highest south and east of Wichita.

Large hail and strong winds are the primary severe weather threat for Wichita, they say, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Monitor conditions and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary.