Finger on the Weather

If you’re feeling a bit baffled by the wide-ranging forecasts for the winter storm bearing down on the Great Plains, you’re not alone.

It’s confounding meteorologists as well.

Wichita was supposed to get several inches of snow…..then no snow at all….and now snow has returned to the forecast. A blizzard warning was issued, canceled, then issued again.

Forecasters have been telling me for days that the computer simulations are in vast disagreement about the track and intensity of the storm. Check the two simulations below, about 6 hours apart.

One says almost no snow for the Wichita area. The other about 18 inches just east of the city, and perhaps a foot of snow in west Wichita.

“I’ve never seen the models this inconsistent before,” said Mike Smith, chief executive officer of WeatherData, Inc., a subsidiary of AccuWeather.

For more on this contrast, see Mike’s blog.

One thing they agree on: strong winds that will blow around any snow that falls, making driving hazardous at best.

Widespread fog is cloaking the region this morning, and forecasters say it will linger through mid-morning.

Rain will commence this afternoon, with thunderstorms possible later in the day. Highs will reach the low 40s, with steady north winds in the teens. As temperatures fall tonight, that moisture will change over to freezing drizzle and then all snow.

Wichita should see snow all day on Christmas Eve, with winds intensifying in the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard watch for Harvey, Kingman, Sedgwick, Harper and Sumner counties from tonight through Friday morning.

“Powerful north winds” of 30 to 40 miles an hour, with gusts to 50 mph, can be expected Thursday and Thursday night, creating near white-out conditions, the weather service warns. Forecasters say anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of snow is possible for Wichita – “possibly more,” said Mary-Beth Schreck, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Southeast Kansas could see 4 to 8 inches of snow, she said. As the storm moves off to the northeast, snow could fall steadily again on Friday as moisture wraps around the back side. That could vault Wichita’s snowfall totals even higher, she said.

Monitor conditions and forecasts closely, and for more weather information go to our weather page.