The National Weather Service has posted a graphic showing the anticipated location of severe weather later today. It reaffirms what I was told earlier today.
Hopefully El Dorado and other parts of Butler County still recovering from last week’s derecho won’t be hit too hard.
With the cold front already “right on Wichita’s doorstep” at 2 p.m., and storm initiation not expected to begin for another couple of hours, the metropolitan area looks poised to escape the worst of the severe weather expected in the region tonight, National Weather Service meteorologist Robb Lawson said.
“It’s going to be close, though,” Lawson said. “Our best guess right now is that Wichita should be on the back edge of it.”
The first storms should fire up on the northern edge of the front near Emporia, Lawson said, and gradually fill in to the south. Storms may well develop so close to Wichita that residents will be able to see them to the east. But because the front is moving east-southeast, those storms won’t threaten the city.
The storms are likely to produce heavy rain – short-term rates of up to 2 inches an hour, Lawson said – along with hail and strong winds. That’s not good news for southeast Kansas, which is already saturated from recent rains.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a moderate risk for severe weather spanning portions of several Midwestern states today: Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois.
Supercell thunderstorms capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes could develop in Missouri and southern Illinois, forecasters caution.
The atmosphere in Kansas and Oklahoma will be very moist and unstable as well, promoting the development of large, slow-moving thunderstorms. Heavy rain and hail are the primary threats, but the SPC warns “some potential will also exist for isolated tornadoes…mainly after dark.”
Given the timetable provided for local forecasters, that threat seems most likely for southeast Kansas – not the Wichita area.
A sunny, sultry morning will set the stage for severe weather this afternoon and evening in and east of the Wichita metropolitan area.
Forecasters say severe thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon along the Kansas Turnpike and move east.
“With the atmosphere being very unstable, the storms should intensify quickly and become severe,” the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook states.
Severe storms are most likely east of I-35, with the primary threats being damaging downburst winds and heavy rain. Golf ball or larger sized hail will also be possible from the strongest storms.
“A brief and isolated tornado can not be ruled out, but tornadoes are not expected to be the main threat,” the outlook warns.
Highs today should reach the low 80s, with gusty winds shifting from the south to the northwest later in the day.