The Wichita branch of the National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook that contains sobering language. Here’s an edited portion of that statement:
“Severe thunderstorm development will be possible…generally along the Interstate 135 corridor. In spite of somewhat marginal instability, wind shear will be very strong, which will allow any storms that develop to become severe.
“The main threats will be large hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes. If moisture and instability increase a bit more than expected, a few strong and long-lived tornadoes will be possible given the very strong wind shear.”
The storms will shift into southeast Kansas late into the evening and overnight, with the severe threat waning over time. However, heavy rainfall and localized flooding due to storms following the same track repeatedly are possible.
….according to AccuWeather:
“The thunderstorms will ignite from north-central Texas to eastern South Dakota with the strongest storms holding off until the afternoon and evening. Wichita, Kan., and Oklahoma City will both be in the line of fire of storms during the evening.
Overnight storms will shift farther east, threatening Omaha, Neb., Kansas City, Mo., and Dallas, Texas. The mid-Mississippi River Valley and the Arklatex Region will have dangerous storms on Tuesday, including Little Rock, Ark., and St. Louis., Mo.
Threats with the storms will include tornadoes as well as damaging winds greater than 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls. The greatest risk for tornadoes will be over central parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. A few of the tornadoes will be long-lived, increasing the threat of destruction.
Residents across the Plains are strongly urged to monitor local news outlets and take immediate action if a severe thunderstorm or tornado threatens. Weather radios should be left on overnight to keep alert of this dangerous weather event.”
…….for severe weather this afternoon and evening, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Hail as large as golf balls, winds of 70 miles an hour and a few isolated supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are possible, forecasters say.
Stay tuned to later forecasts and reports.
The National Weather Service has issued a report on why so many people did not seek shelter during one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in recent U.S. history.
The Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008, killed 57 people, injured 350 others and caused an estimated $400 million in property damage. A total of 82 tornadoes struck nine states in the southeastern United States.
The study revealed that two-thirds of the victims were in mobile homes, and 60 percent did not have access to safe shelter, such as a basement or storm cellar. While some people sought the best shelter available to them, others simply were in denial about the tornado threat.
Some indicated they thought the threat was minimal because February is not within traditional tornado season. Several others said they spent time seeking confirmation and went to a safe location only after they saw a tornado. Still more minimized the threat of personal risk through “optimism bias,” the belief that such bad things only happen to other people.
Tornado warnings were issued an average of 17 minutes in advance of all deadly tornadoes. Various agencies had been warning about the impending threat of severe weather for days.
National Weather Service officials have vowed to use clearer and stronger language to convey the severe weather threats. But how well people respond is beyond their control.