A white Christmas for Wichita?

Not likely. A white Christmas Eve? That’s another matter.

The Wichita branch of the National Weather Service is calling for a chance of flurries after midnight tonight. Depending on one’s definition, that alone could qualify as a white Christmas Eve. But the flurries aren’t expected to offer much more than a dusting at best.

“We just don’t have any moisture” to generate more snow, said Leon Wasinger, a meteorologist with the weather service.

Another forecasting service, Accuweather, is offering a different forecast for Christmas Eve: 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Wichita area.

There’s a reason for that: a hearty batch of moisture is currently down in Texas and Oklahoma, and at least one forecasting model has that moisture moving north into Kansas. If a cold front currently parked in northwest Kansas slides southward, those two forces could collide and provide measurable snow for the metropolitan area, Wasinger said.

Highs Wednesday are expected to only reach the mid-30s. But if there’s snow cover on the ground much of tomorrow, the mercury will struggle to get that high. Even with sunny skies, it would be difficult for several inches of snow to melt in a single day.

All of which means – if everything falls together in a certain way – that a white Christmas in Wichita could happen.

But don’t count on it, National Weather Service forecasters say. Folks who live in central Kansas and north of I-70 have a much better chance of a white Christmas this year.