If forecasters sound particularly concerned today, there’s a reason: Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist for the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said the upper-level conditions today over southcentral and eastern Kansas echo the set-up on April 26, 1991.
That date should sound familiar to long-time residents of the area. That’s the day a huge tornado struck Haysville, south Wichita, McConnell Air Force Base and Andover, and other tornadoes touched down in the region as well.
“The pattern is very dynamic, and reminiscent of other big days” for tornadoes, Carbin said.
He’ll be keeping a close watch on a corridor about 100 miles wide from just north of Wichita to northeast of Emporia and west of Kansas City. If a supercell develops in that corridor between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. today, he said, it could very well produce a strong tornado and large hail.
There isn’t as much moisture already in place as there was on April 26, 1991, he said, and that figures to limit storm development to at least some degree.
But the strong southerly winds that have been buffeting Wichita this morning are feeding moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, and the clear skies will allow ample afternoon heating to increase instability in the atmosphere.
A strong cap is in place, Carbin said, and how soon and where it erodes will be a key factor in what and where storms develop. If something develops, he said, it could happen quickly.
That’s why it’s important for folks to be alert today.