NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has portions of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri under a slight risk for severe weather today. The sector of the Sunflower State included is essentially everything east of the Kansas Turnpike.
While forecasters say tornadoes are possible in Oklahoma if the thunderstorms are isolated enough (and thus do not steal energy from each other), the primary threat for Kansas is large hail and strong winds. The threat of tornadoes in Kansas is minimal at best because a “cap” is in place that figures to inhibit the development of strong thunderstorms.
A cap is a layer of warm air sitting atop a layer of cooler air next to the surface. Normally, air rises as it warms up. Clouds form when that warm air reaches upper levels of the atmosphere and the moisture within it condenses. That cap of warm air serves as a set of brakes for the rising warm air, keeping it from breaking through to the upper atmosphere and forming strong thunderstorms.
Caps erode when cooler air reaches that layer of warm air, opening the door for supercell thunderstorms to develop. But forecasters say the cap over Kansas today is pretty strong, shutting the door on the formation of tornadoes.