Shockwaves

Goddard infielder Logan Watkins signed with the Cubs on Friday night at Schofield Honda on East Kellogg, where his father works. Lots of family and friends showed up for the big moment. His dad, Brian, brought the requisite Cub hats.

A Cubs scout led Logan through the paperwork - full insurance coverage, room and board for $9 a day in Mesa, Ariz. (some guys get their own places but the scout advised Logan to take advantage of the cheap rates) and bonuses for working his way up the Cubs system. He needs to look neat (no earrings) and well-dressed (no sandles) when he shows up for his first day of work.

Pretty exciting for an athlete and his family. The offer of a $500,000 bonus and college money is hard to turn down. Watkins said it was a tough decision. He couldn’t pass up the money, despite his strong feelings for Wichita State.

“The odds of getting it again in three years are pretty slim,” he said. “(Going to WSU) puts a lot of pressure on me to stay healthy and make sure I maintain the way I play. Having a bad junior year could ultimately affect the outcome of everything. Just jumping on this opportunity while I have it is something I had to do.”

That’s the pro side of the discussion and many people would agree. The Cubs no doubt hammered those points home and told Watkins that if he wants to be a baseball player, it is time to get started. Legitimate points, aided by a bonus that, if managed properly, can be a help down the road. From a pro standpoint, the minor leagues are the best place for a ballplayer to learn how to be a ballplayer. Going to college and swinging aluminum bats against weaker competition slows development.

The college argument is also convincing. Three years of college can pay off in many ways, athletically and otherwise. WSU coach Gene Stephenson maintains perhaps five or six high school kids (Chipper Jones types) are ready for pro ball each year. The rest are better off in college. His best argument is that a player gets one chance at professional baseball, and he needs to be prepared to give that his best shot. Stephenson (acting also in his own best interest) believes three or four years of college does that, mentally and physically.

Moneyball adherents would agree. Others would not. That would be the tough thing for parents about this decision - how ready is an 18-year-old for long bus rides, homesickness, baseball as a business and coping with failure far away from family and friends? If his baseball career ends in Double A in five years, how likely is he to go to college? It gets tougher if a player is 25 and trying to support a family. One rule of thumb that says a player needs at least $600,000 to make passing up college worthwhile. After taxes, that bonus can slip away quickly.

Anecdotally, it seems like most of the WSU signees in recent seasons who signed professionally out of high school were not ready to hit the jackpot in the major leagues. Pitcher Kendall Bergdall, drafted the same spring as Mike Pelfrey, is out of baseball. Seattle picked him in the fifth round in 2002. Pete Blake, Juan Piniella, Shannon Carter… The jury is still out on recent players such as Derek Norris and Evan Anundsen. I put infielders Jon Gilmore and Pete Kozma (from last season) in a different class. Even WSU coaches don’t argue with first-round picks signing.

On the flip side, the Shockers aren’t exactly cranking out major-league position players in recent years. Coming to WSU can help a player move up the draft board, but it isn’t the fast lane to the Show.

The decimated 1993 recruiting class deserves its own section. OF Larry Smith (11th round, Royals), P Dan Smith (sixth, Rangers), P Benji Sampson (sixth, Twins) and OF Craig McClure (sixth, White Sox) all abandoned WSU for the minors. Sampson and Dan Smith pitched in the majors. Larry Smith never passed Rookie ball. McClure stalled in Class A.

Watkins will try to beat the odds and make it to the majors. It’s a longshot, regardless of the starting point. The important thing for him is not to wonder. He is now a Cub.

WSU baseball coach Gene Stephenson did some figuring on the flight from Tallahassee. He didn’t need to do the math, but he did anyway. The Shockers, in case you missed it, are losing most of their team. He says it’s the largest hit in his 31 seasons at WSU.

We knew all that. Here’s some stuff looking forward that may be of interest.

• Shortstop Dusty Coleman is going to try to switch hit this summer with Team USA and in the Cape (if he does not make the National team).
• Coaches expect all the drafted juniors to sign. That includes second baseman Josh Workman and pitcher Matt Smith, both of whom were taken late in the draft’s second day. Coleman, a draft-eligible sophomore, is expected to return.
• The recruiting class appears to be a strong bet to stay intact. Pitchers Jordan Cooper and Brian Flynn, the highest picks, both were holding out for higher than the 17th and 18th rounds. Strange things can happen before Aug. 15, but now it appears coaches and fans can relax a little.
• Pitchers Cameron Maldonado and Max Hutson (both injured in 2008) will throw this summer. Maldonado, who had a shoulder operation to relieve a nerve impingement this spring, will pitch for El Dorado and may be throwing in a few weeks. Hutson will pitch for the Wichita Wheat Kings of the Walter Johnson League.
• Pitcher Tyson Fugett will transfer to Pittsburg State to play baseball.
• Five future Shockers will play for the Wichita Sluggers in the Walter Johnson League this summer: Cooper, Flynn, pitcher Dalton Banwart and infielders Tyler Grimes and Logan Watkins. Current Shocker Remington Johnson is also on the team.

One of the first things I did when I got home was watch the replays of the three controversial plays in the Super Regional. After watching and rewatchng, and listening to the ESPN commentators, it is clear Florida State coaches, fans and players made something out of close-to-nothing.

It may have been a smart move on their part. Not particularly charming or sportsmanlike, but effective.

Let’s think about what likely went on in the FSU locker room after Friday’s loss. First, let’s think about history for FSU and coach Mark Martin. It is a program that is quite desperate to get back to Omaha. It is a program desperate to win a national title (18 previous appearances, no titles) to erase the label of Omaha’s biggest running flop. FSU has not been to the CWS since 2000, which is an embarrassing stretch for a program with its history and resources. What’s more, Friday’s loss was its eighth straight super regional defeat. That is truly a stunning stretch of failure for that program.

So there is immense pressure on the Seminoles. Losing at home to Wichita State is not going to go over well. After Friday, the Seminoles are in a bad spot. They are the favorite. They are the more talented team. They are at home. Their coaches added in a manufactured element of “They took out your teammate” and it combined for two dominating efforts.

Jason Stidham’s bad toss to Tony Delmonico handed FSU motivation. Does FSU win without that play? Yes. It was the better team. But the fact the Seminoles were so outraged by an unfortunate but unavoidable collision reveals their state of mind. Coach Mike Martin was all sweetness and praise for WSU before the regional. He quickly turned bitter and unsportsmanlike with his petty refusal to come out of the dugout for the pre-game meeting. That is the mark of man under pressure.

What’s amazing is that Florida State is responsible for the worst of the three incidents, yet managed to come off as the wounded party. ESPN’s Eduardo Perez, who played for FSU, characterized Ryan Jones’ slide into Tony Delmonico as nobody’s fault. He took issue with Dusty Coleman’s slide later that game that nicked Delmonico. He took even more issue with FSU’s Taylor Holt when he slid across home and kicked WSU catcher Tyler Weber in Saturday’s game. That seems like a fair reading of the situations. The blame for Delmonico’s injury goes to Stidham, who flipped the ball and led Delmonico into Jones. Coleman’s slide is open to question, but it goes unnoticed without the previous collision (add the fact Martin put his guy in harm’s way at less than 100 percent). Holt’s kick of Weber looked like like more a cheap move than either.

On some level, you have to admire FSU’s cut-throat ability to take these incidents and take great offense. Perhaps that comes from playing intense rivalries in the ACC and with in-state rival Florida. Perhaps that is something WSU, which has few rivals, is not accustomed to. Most MVC schools are thrilled to win one game each weekend against WSU. The Seminoles face a different challenge against a Miami, Clemson or North Carolina. The stands are packed. The pressure to win is enormous for coaches at schools with state-wide followings and a need to get to Omaha. There just wasn’t that kind of pressure on Dewey Kalmer at Bradley.

I’m not here to say WSU has never done anything beyond reproach on the basepaths. I’m sure there are coaches out there who have their gripes with the Shockers getting chippy or too aggressive, and some may be legit. My observation has been that WSU generally plays hard and fair. In this case, I think they are unfairly accused by the Seminoles and their passive-aggressive coach. However, they are going to Omaha and the Shockers are not.

FSU 14, WSU 4, a final. One game for Omaha tomorrow. Anthony Capra must be more efficient with his pitching than he has been in many weeks. The Seminoles effectively ground away at Musgrave and Shafer, both of whom typically throw fewer pitches than Capra.

FSU will start senior right-hander Ryan Strauss (9-1, 4.58 ERA). He last pitched June 1 against Tulane in the regional and gave up seven hits and six runs in 5 2/3. Many in the Tallahassee media figured FSU would go with junior Geoff Parker (5-1, 3.69).

In my mind, this was WSU’s best chance to win it. The advantage tilts tremendously to FSU in a third game. It would be a mistake to count out the Shockers, however. They have earned the benefit of that doubt over the past 10 games. Capra is certainly capable of a standout performance. Ninety-five percent (conservatively) of the programs in the country would be thrilled to have a fourth-round draft pick going in the third game of a super. I don’t think the Shocker offense will be this quiet two games in a row.

FSU 14, WSU 4, after eight: Mitch Caster’s first home run is WSU’s lone bright spot. Most of the Shockers are in the dugout, waiting on an IV, and trying to recover for Sunday.

FSU 12, WSU 3, bottom of the sixth: The Seminoles add three more and it is a long, hot, disastrous day for the Shockers. Ryan Jones is out, cramping, and I would think WSU must be careful not to waste more energy on a nine-run deficit.

FSU 9, WSU 3, after five: No runners for the Shockers for the first time. Fairel is getting better and the Shockers are putting up less resistance. He is keeping hitters, especially lefties, off balance.

9, WSU 3, bottom of the fifth: Posey singles to drive in another run.

FSU 8, WSU 3, after four: Seminoles starter Matt Fairel is not overpowering but he is not making mistakes. The Shockers wasted singles by Jones and Gillaspie to start the third.

FSU 8, WSU 3, bottom of the third: WSU’s worst-case scenario is here. Shafer is out after throwing 85 pitches and allowing a career-high eight earned runs. You have to wonder if he left his best stuff in Stillwater, where he threw 133 pitches a week ago. Khol Nanney is in.

WSU 3, FSU 3, bottom of the second: Shafer gives up a home run to Tapley. He gets out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam by allowing only one run on a sac fly. So it could have been worse. However, Shafer is already past the 30-pitch mark. WSU needs him to get some clean innings soon, and it won’t be easy going through the lineup again.

WSU 3, FSU 1, after one: Shaky fielding hurts the Seminoles. Ryan Jones scores on a groundball hit at the second baseman that he dropped. It was scored a hit, generously. Josh Workman supplied the big hit by lofting a two-RBI single into short center.

WSU left fielder Kevin Hall bruised his hand sliding for a catch in the ninth Friday. He will not start today (Kenny Williams will) and is likely limited to pinch running. Six Shockers had IVs after Friday’s game. It is hot, cloudy and still today with almost no breeze.

Seminoles shortstop Tony Delmonico is out with a sprained ankle. Jason Stidham moves from second to short and Tommy Oravetz takes over at second.

Meaningless stat of the day (but a good omen for Shocker fans): WSU is 7-1 in games with a trip to Omaha on the line.

The winner of this super meets the Stanford-Fullerton winner a week from today in the CWS. Stanford won the opener 4-3 on Friday night.

The first day of the draft went well for WSU. Any Shocker recruit picked from now on (we are in the eighth round as I’m writing) will probably lean toward college, unless they were never really serious about it to begin with. Players like Jordan Cooper and Brian Flynn can reasonably see themselves in WSU junior Aaron Shafer. Shafer made it known he would be a tough sign, went in the 16th round as a high schooler and improved to a second-rounder after three seasons.

As Shafer wisely said Thursday night, the draft isn’t where he plans on making his money. But it’s nice, and it sets you up as a more important part of a franchise’s future when they invest more in you. Shafer’s final point is that he is better prepared to succeed as a pro now than he was three years ago.

Bonus money starts to slip quickly once you get into the fifth rounds and down. Last season, most fifth-round bonuses were in the $130-$150,000 range (with some notable exceptions). Moving up to the third round puts a player in the $$250-$350,000 range.

WSU shortstop Dusty Coleman is in the same boat as a draft-eligible sophomore. He will go sometime today, but it seems unlikely it will be worth his time. Next spring, after what I will predict is a good summer in the Cape and a great spring with WSU, Coleman’s draft-day will go quickly.