Shockwaves

Taken in the context of a mid-level MVC team playing the ninth-place team from the Pac-10, it’s disappointing for WSU to lose, and never really challenge, against Stanford. The Cardinal don’t usually rebound or defend well, and they did both against the Shockers because of their experience and athletic ability.

Taken in the context of a team with one senior picked to finish ninth, it’s impossible to be too disappointed in the finish. The Shockers deserve a lot of credit for turning an 0-6 disaster into something uplifting. By the end, I think the Shockers coaches and players believed in each other and there will be a lot of optimism for next season. The players can see how the coaches want things to work, and they know that if they buy in they will win. That’s a huge step.

Improvement next season will be relative because the Valley should be better. It really needs a bounceback season. The MVC lacked big wins during the regular season. Nothing improved in the post-season with UNI’s loss in the NCAAs and Creighton (NIT) and WSU (CBI) losing at home against high-profile schools. It will be interesting to see MVC non-conference schedules leak out over the summer. From what I’ve seen, Creighton, WSU and Northern Iowa will take on ambitious challenges. SIU usually does.

 Here’s an early thought on the Valley for 2009-10 (not in order of finish):

• Bradley (ascending). The Braves will miss Theron Wilson immensely. Getting Andrew Warren and Will Egolf back will help. Good guards. Until the big men improve, I don’t see Bradley challenging for the MVC title.
• Creighton (ascending). The Bluejays are an enigma. For glass-half-full people, they are the MVC’s most consistent program with enviable success, great fan support and a proven, stable coach. Now that SIU has slipped, Creighton is the MVC’s standard. Which brings me to the glass-half-empty – it’s way past time for Creighton to do more in the post-season. Fair or not, conferences are judged by the performance of the top teams. Creighton has not won an NCAA game since 2002. It hasn’t won more than one NIT game ever, despite often playing at home. The Jays are already doing more than most MVC schools with their regular-season performances. They need to do more on the bigger stage. I can’t see a reason why it shouldn’t happen. But it hasn’t, and that is a problem. Having said all that, Creighton will be my pick as the 2010 favorite and it should be one of coach Dana Altman’s best teams. I think Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker will continue to improve and turn into above-average big men. I really like Antoine Young’s play late in the season and I think he will turn into a very good MVC guard. The Jays should be very good next season.
• Drake (descending). No big men returning. Recruit Ben Simons is the runner-up for Mr. Michigan basketball.
• Evansville (descending). No team relied more on seniors than the Aces.
• Illinois State (descending). Redbirds will miss Champ Oguchi and Brandon Sampay. They need at least two recruits to make big contributions. With Osiris, however, they can’t be counted out. They seem to be counting on Bobby Hill’s knees,which seems risky. Forward Kellen Thornton seemed to improve late in the season.
• Indiana State (flat). Lots of good guards. No inside game.
• Missouri State (flat). Bad team that relied heavily on seniors. MSU is counting on transfers and freshmen to help future star Kyle Weems. Risky. The Bears may follow WSU’s path again in coach Cuonzo Martin’s second season.
• Northern Iowa (flat). Can the Panthers get any better? Sure. Don’t forget, UNI’s backcourt was essentially an all-rookie outfit. The Panthers also might stay the same while others improve. I like the fact UNI’s schedule is ambitious. The Valley needs that.
• Southern Illinois (ascending). Will be much improved or fans will be all over Chris Lowery. Saluki fans, more than any others in the MVC, seem to use salary as a hot-button issue. I expect the Salukis to be better. Iowa transfer Tony Freeman should help a lot and freshman Anthony Booker should improve.
• Wichita State (ascending). Almost everyone is back. If I’m going to be tough on Creighton, it’s also time to point out WSU and Bradley as programs that need to do more nationally to raise the Valley’s profile. Both appear to possess the resources to do so. Bradley is slipping from its Sweet 16 appearance, without the usual excuse of a coaching change (although injuries have hit the Braves hard). WSU has had two seasons to deal with a coaching change. The Shockers are on the right track. Within a season or two, WSU needs to be back in the position to make the NIT or NCAA.

Q: What is the short scouting report on Stanford – the Cardinal appear to score effectively and struggle on defense?

A: Yes, defensively, they are lousy, allowing Pac-10 opponents to shoot better than 50 percent.  They try to play the Duke overplay defense, but they are not quick enough to pull it off.  Plus, they are just not very tough, seldom winning any physical battles.   Offensively, they are streaky.  They shoot quite a few threes, and when they are making them and forcing turnovers, they can score.   They have no low-post game to speak of.  Center Josh Owens is athletic and can be effective against mediocre competition, but against good teams, he’s nothing.  Landry Fields is Stanford’s best all-around player.

Q: How is new coach Johnny Dawkins received at Stanford?
A: There has not been much response one way or the other yet on Dawkins.  The fact that Trent Johnson did so well at LSU is not helping, but Stanford is not the kind of place that rips a coach after every loss.  If they have a similar season next year (and they should be worse), then there will be some muttering.

Q: Is guard Anthony Goods the player WSU’s defense should most worry about?
 A: Goods can get hot on three-pointers, and he has scored pretty well late in the season, but the best player, as I noted, is Fields.   It may be true, though, that Stanford needs to get scoring from Goods to be successful.  He tries to penetrate at times, but he is not real good at creating his own shot.   If he is denied three-point shooting room, he can be contained.

Q: Stanford is usually in the NCAA Tournament. Are the players and coaches enthusiastic at all about the CBI?
A: They say they are enthusiastic, and they played pretty well vs. Boise State, but it was a big letdown not to be in the NCAAs.  They were bummed after a loss to Washington in the Pac-10 touney eliminated that possibility.    I think they played well vs. Boise State because they were so loose, with no apparent pressure.  Having no one in the stands made it seem like a pick-up game, too.  Dawkins has never been a part of a postseason tournament other than NCAA.  He missed the NCAA and all postseason tournaments as a Duke freshman, but made it every other year as player and assistant.