Since the MVC went to the 10-team tournament in 1997, only one 9-9 team (Bradley in 1998) has had to play in the play-in round. Seven 8-10 teams have, including two (Missouri State and Indiana State) last season. WSU’s goal is to finish in the top six and avoid the Thursday game. Sunday’s win over Evansville helps. Without it, WSU had almost no chance of escaping the bottom four. It will not be easy to hop over two teams (Indiana State and Missouri State seem almost certain to finish in the bottom four with 2-7 records). One problem is WSU has only three games (Drake, at Evansville, at SIU) remaining against the four teams within two games. The Shockers will need some help dragging them down (or vaulting past them). It gives the Shockers something to shoot for and it’s certainly not impossible.
Of course, this giddy talk of finishing sixth becomes moot if WSU can’t win on the road. The crowd has really helped WSU right this season, at least temporarily. The next challenge is to play well on the road. WSU did so for a half at Creighton and Northern Iowa and for much of the game at Drake.
How excited should Shocker fans be? Well, for this team a three-game winning streak against teams in the top six of the standings is big news. I think for the first time we got a good look at how coach Gregg Marshall wants the Shockers to operate. Pressure defense. Easy baskets. Lots of deflections and steals. Changing defenses to frustrate the offense. Will it work this smoothly the rest of the season? Probably not. There is still the potential for some flops. Until we see them, however, it appears a corner was turned over the past three games. I don’t know if that translates into a spectacular finish to the season.
Evansville may be the easiest team for WSU to pass. The Aces have lost four of five games and play at Drake on Wednesday. The Aces have games at Bradley, Creighton and Northern Iowa remaining.
I’ve seen eight of the nine other MVC teams in person. Evansville exceeded my expectations more than any other team. The Aces played great defense. Obviously, however, they can’t do that every night. Creighton beat them 79-57 on Jan. 20 at Roberts Stadium. Other than Shy Ely, the Aces don’t possess a lot of offensive threats. Jason Holsinger’s shooting dropoff (from 43.7 to 41.8 to 31.3 on threes the past three seasons) is a big problem. The Aces don’t get much from behind the arc and their big men are not great scorers. Evansville has broken 60 points once in its past four games.
WSU’s Toure Murry is the MVC’s Newcomer of the Week.
By RPI reckoning, WSU owns the MVC’s best non-conference victory. According to collegeRPI.com, Siena is No. 15. Creighton’s home win over No. 42 Dayton is the next best. That’s not good for the Valley. In fact, Northern Iowa’s two-game lead at the halfway point does not look healthy for the MVC. To their credit, the Panthers are obviously a much-improved team since December. However, they lost by 30 points to Marquette and also lost to Illinois-Chicago, Iowa, Iowa State and Wyoming. Those losses give outside observers little reason to take the Valley seriously. Too bad UNI can’t play that schedule again. I think it would go much better for the Panthers. UNI may turn out to be a very dangerous No. 13 seed (where Jerry Palm’s current projection puts it), but that’s a tough draw. If that seed plays out, UNI would be the lowest-seeded MVC champion since 2003 SIU was a No. 11 (second-place Creighton was a No. 6). That would be a step back from recent seasons: 2008 Drake (No. 5), 2007 SIU (No. 4), 2006 WSU (No. 7), 2005 SIU (No. 7).