Shockwaves

The Shockers open the season today (Sunday) and I don’t think anybody knows what to expect. There is reason to believe WSU will be better. At this point, it’s largely faith in coach Gregg Marshall’s resume and numbers. There is also reason to believe the season will go through plenty of rough spots.

My guess: 17-13, 9-9 MVC. That’s wildly optimistic for a team that returns one starter from a ninth-place finisher. It’s so optimistic, I’m hesitant. Every writer for every team picked in the bottom half of the MVC is thinking .500 after counting on seven or eight wins over the other four. Somebody’s got to be wrong. Like every team, there are two or three games that could swing the season in one way or another. For WSU, I think that is TCU, Bradley at home and at Indiana State. In the end, I think WSU’s improving shooting (from the field and line) will tip some of those close games into their favor this season. I think they will continue to defend and rebound the way Marshall’s teams usually do. I’m counting on young guys maturing quickly, which is always risky.

Florida A&M – Win (1-0). WSU needs to play better defense on the perimeter and get on top early.

UMKC – Win (2-0). Last season’s loss at UMKC was one of the low points. Marshall was so mad in the post-game interview he could not speak more than one sentence in reply to each question. If the Shockers are on the right track, this is a game they must win.

Centenary – Win (3-0). J.T. Durley gets Robert Parrish in foul trouble.

Georgetown - Loss (3-1). Great experience to play teams this good in the Old Spice Classic. WSU isn’t ready for this kind of team. Maybe they play loose and confident and upset the Hoyas on a neutral court. Probably not.

Tennessee/Siena - Loss (3-2). Neither team is a bargain. Siena won an NCAA game last season and returns five starters.

Maryland/Michigan State/Oklahoma State/Gonzaga - Loss (3-3). Play hard. Learn. Get better.

at Texas Tech - Loss (3-4). First true road game for a young team.

at TCU – Win (4-4). If the Shockers aren’t worn down, this is one they can get. Will the Texans be too hyped up?

Gardner-Webb - Win (5-4). WSU glad to be home. I know G-W beat Kentucky last season (is that still a big deal?). It lost to Florida Gulf Coast. Former KU player Michael Lee is an assistant at G-W. WSU should hire Hakim Warrick. Jokes aside, this is the non-conference home game that looks scariest. G-W returns four starters from a team that shouldn’t be intimidated after playing big-time teams last season. The Runnin’ Bulldogs (16-16 in 2008) played at Kentucky, UConn and Clemson, plus neutral-court games against UConn and Oklahoma. They are picked third in the Big South and opened the season with a 65-62 loss at Virginia Tech.

Northern Arizona – Win (6-4). A test for WSU’s perimeter defense. If Josh Wilson gets 25 again, there are problems.

North Dakota - Win (7-4). The Sioux opened the season with a win at UMKC.

at Creighton - Loss (7-5, 0-1). Marshall will win in Omaha. Not this season.

Bradley - Win (8-5, 1-1). The Braves are hard to figure after losing an exhibition to a DIII team. At home, I like WSU’s big men to play well and the Braves to give up easy shots.

at Northern Iowa - Loss (8-6, 1-2). This prediction may change if Jordan Eglseder is hurt. WSU may want to bring back Gal Mekel.

Southern Illinois - Loss (8-7, 1-3). Bryan Mullins is the difference in a close game.

at Drake - Loss (8-8, 1-4). The Bulldogs are picked fourth in the MVC, which is a clear indication people are waiting for them to prove it. No other defending champion with two All-MVC players back would get picked so low. IF the Shockers could get this one, it could start a nice streak.

at Missouri State – Win (9-8, 2-4) – The Bears are last season’s Shockers. Injury-prone, thin and inexperienced. The Shockers need this one to right the ship after a tough stretch.

Creighton – Loss (9-9, 2-5). The Shockers played the Jays tough twice last season. I think Creighton is fortunate to get WSU twice in January. Of course, Creighton may be better in February.

Illinois State - Win (10-9, 3-5). The Shockers start their turnaround with an upset. The Redbirds will remember last season’s 21-point win and forget their three-point win. They look past WSU to a matchup with SIU.

Evansville – Win (11-9, 4-5). Must win for WSU.

at Bradley – Loss (11-10, 4-6). The Shockers did win in Peoria last season.

Drake - Win (12-10, 5-6). One month into the Valley season, the Shockers start to click, especially at home.

at Indiana State – Loss (12-11, 5-7). Site of last-season’s biggest collapse. Here is another chance to erase some of those bad memories. This is a tough one to call. I don’t think the road will be kind.

at Evansville - Win (13-11. 6-7). Must win.

Missouri State – Win (14-11, 7-7). Zo may be suiting up by this time.

Northern Iowa - Win (15-11, 8-7). The Panthers will struggle to score on the road.

at Illinois State - Loss (15-12, 8-8). The early, early, early returns say Eldridge-Oguchi may be the MVC’s best one-two punch. Too tough on the road for WSU.

Bracketbusters – Win (16-12, 8-8). Aren’t the Shockers due to win one of these?

Indiana State – Win (17-12, 9-8). Sycamores really bad on the road last season.

at Southern Illinois – Loss (17-13, 9-9). Senior night at SIU Arena.