The Nuthouse

Follow me on Twitter. I’m stuck on 50 followers. I blame all of you.

You know how when there’s a guy, a young guy, who’s just raking at Triple-A? And you want to see how he can do when he gets called up to the majors? Will his numbers translate? Will he be able to hit a big-league curveball? Will he remain confident when he endures the inevitable slump?

Well, on a smaller scale, that happens on the independent level, too.

Case in point, Josh Horn. The 26-year-old Wingnuts shortstop has never played affiliated baseball, but he had a nice professional debut in 2007, when he batted .302 with Windy City of the Frontier League. He followed that up by batting .290 the next season for Windy City, which won the league title in 2008.

That got Horn “called up”, so to speak. He was signed by the Wingnuts of the more difficult American Association, where many wondered if he’d be able to produce similar numbers against tougher, more veteran pitchers. While not all of Horn’s numbers were as strong as those he posted in the Frontier League, he answered that question with a mostly resounding Yes.

Though Horn went 2 for 2 in his first game with Wichita, he then began a slump that saw his batting average drop to .237 after 16 games. How would Horn handle his first bout of hard luck in a tougher league? Pretty nicely, actually. Horn became one of the Wingnuts’ most consistent hitters during the rest of the season. By June 6, Horn’s average was above .300, and he had it above that benchmark pretty much the rest of the season. He briefly got his average above .350 before ending the season at .310.

Horn also had to deal with a position switch. He started the season at second base, where he had played most of his career, and Brenan Hererra was at shortstop. But Hererra dealt with nagging injuries much of the season, so to limit the strain on Hererra, manager Kevin Hooper swapped his middle infielders and Horn played the last three-fourths or so at shortstop. He took to the position immediately — his strong arm and good range helped him make a quick adjustment.

The only area in which Horn fell off from the previous two seasons was in his power numbers. He averaged 18 doubles and seven homers during his two seasons in the Frontier League, but last season he managed 12 doubles and three homers in a career-high 430 plate appearances. Horn has power, but as the Wingnuts’ leadoff hitter last season he opted to work deep into counts, shorten up his swing and hit line drives.

Horn will likely bat second this season, behind new addition Kennard Bibbs, so his offensive approach shouldn’t change. I expect him to hit more gaps and to exhibit similar plate discipline to his 2009 season, when he drew 45 walks and had a .393 on-base percentage. He’s a player in the same mold as Hooper, so we can be sure that Horn spent the offseason doing whatever he could to improve his game. Oh, and he’ll hopefully keep his grip on the bat more this season, too.

Season projection: 95 games, 377 at-bats, 125 hits, .332 average, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs, .422 slugging percentage, 45 RBIs, 38 walks, 6 HBP, .401 on-base percentage, 62 runs, 15 steals.

Follow me on Twitter. I’m up to 49 followers. If you become number 50, I’ll reward you with a special mention in the blog. That should help your followers grow by at least one, possibly even none. But it’ll feel cool, right? You can’t even imagine the prize I have for follower No. 100…
UPDATE: Travis Richardson became my 50th follower just minutes after (or before) I posted this. Visit him @trich424. And don’t be discouraged to follow me just because you weren’t the 50th.
SECOND UPDATE: Travis has since unfollowed me. But feel free to visit his page; he’s a good kid. In the meantime, the race to 50 is back on!

For most of last season the Wingnuts were a closer short of being a complete team. They went through a few options and seemed to have their guy when they acquired Joe D’Alessandro in the middle of the season. But Joe-D didn’t quite pan out despite being electric at times, and Wichita went back to the drawing board.

Then in mid-August July, Wichita finally got the lockdown ninth-inning guy it was looking for when it traded for Shreveport’s Justin Dowdy. After being released by the Oakland Athletics early in 2009, where he pitched for Double-A Midland, the left-handed Dowdy joined the American Association and dominated the Southern Division. He was an All-Star for the Captains, notching 13 saves with a 2.37 ERA.

It appeared as if Dowdy could go the way of the Wingnuts closers before him and become a disappointment after he took the loss in his first appearance on Aug. 18. But Dowdy righted himself, earning a save in his next four games and not allowing a run in his final five outings.

Listed at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, the 26-year-old Dowdy has an intimidating presence that belies his tiny frame. He’s tatted up, smokes cigarettes outside the clubhouse and just looks rough and mean, like you would want your closer to look. He’s also armed with a high-80s fastball that has helped him strike out 9.1 batters per nine innings during his professional career.

Dowdy has pitched in five affiliated organizations, having some success in a variety of roles. But he has only a handful of appearances above Double-A; he doesn’t throw hard enough to be a closer on the upper levels of affiliated ball and he lacks the secondary pitches and deception needed to be an effective situational guy.

He has a ton of value to an independent team, though. Case in point his 2007 season, when he pitched in the United League and struck out 102 batters and allowed 21 hits in 52 2/3 innings. He’s highly unlikely to put up those numbers in the American Association. Still, a full season of Dowdy will greatly benefit the Wingnuts, who seem to be putting together a stout bullpen. If he can limit his walks (3.9 per nine innings last season), his potential in this league is unlimited.

Season projection: 44 games, 49 innings, 36 hits, 12 earned runs, 2.45 ERA, 1-1 record, 21 saves, 19 walks, 53 strikeouts.

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If you’ve seen Chris Colton play on a consistent basis, you’re probably frustrated. He doesn’t make mistakes or anything like that, but you recognize that he has a wide array of tools but he’s stuck in independent ball, a level on which he still has been unable to put all those tools together to become the player it seems like he can be.

In 2008, Colton was Wichita’s Opening Day center fielder, and if memory serves me correctly, he got the first hit in team history. Watching Colton early in his Wichita career, I had to wonder why he’s on this level. He has great speed, he plays great defense, and he can hit the ball a long way.

But he never moved beyond advanced Class A ball in the Seattle Mariners organization before the team let him go following the 2007 season. It’s tough to figure why the Mariners didn’t give Colton a chance to prove himself on a higher level because he had some good seasons in Class A. But maybe they felt the same way as many others do who watch Colton. Maybe they were frustrated because he wasn’t reaching his potential.

Colton doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, though his plate discipline could improve. Before last season, when he drew 60 walks in the Frontier League, Colton had always been a little too eager at the plate. I remember instances in 2008 in which he would swing early in the count when the best approach seemed to be making the pitcher work.

But Colton may have turned the corner in that department in his year away from Wichita. As I said, he drew 60 walks while striking out just 59 times. Colton also hit a career-high 18 home runs, a number that can be taken with a grain of salt because it came in an inferior league. But Colton had just eight doubles and no triples, despite his speed, while batting .249. He set a career high with 34 steals.

With the retirement of Nick Blasi, the Wingnuts made a smart decision by bringing back Colton, 27, to man center field. Regardless of his performance at the plate, he’ll save runs by running balls down in the outfield; his first step is as good as any I’ve seen and he makes good reads and takes good routes.

It’s difficult not to root for Colton to succeed. He’s a nice guy, and I gravitate to him for interviews even though he isn’t necessarily the best quote in the business. I just like talking to him. Hopefully for Colton, this season he takes another step toward reaching his potential. I’d like to see him get back to affiliated ball, and this season is important in regards to the possibility of reaching that goal.

Season projection: 396 at-bats, 102 hits, .257 average, 11 home runs, 42 RBIs, 20 doubles, 3 triples, .407 slugging percentage, 33 walks, 2 HBP, .318 on-base percentage, 21 steals, 45 runs.

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In my early analysis on the hitters that will constitute the Wingnuts’ lineup this season, I had Steve Pearson batting third. That’s generally where managers put their overall best hitter, the one that best combines hitting for average and for power. I didn’t really think about putting Pearson in the No. 3 spot. It just seemed like that’s where he would fit best on this team.

Last year, I wanted to see Pearson bat in the No. 2 spot, and he did for a couple games. I felt like, as a left-handed batter, he could take advantage of the big hole on the first-base side of the infield when the leadoff man reaches first and the first baseman is holding him on. With so many power hitters on last year’s team, Pearson seemed like a good table-setter because he has good plate discipline and usually puts the ball in play.

Among Wingnuts with more than 250 at-bats last season, Pearson had the third-fewest strikeouts (52, behind Mike Thompson and Brenan Herrera) and fourth-most walks (47, behind Greg Porter, Josh Horn and Dustan Mohr). He reduced his strikeouts from the previous season’s total of 57 and had 25 more walks in just 50 more at-bats.

The concern one might have with putting Pearson third in the order is his lack of home-run power. In 754 professional at-bats, Pearson has hit just 11 home runs. He just doesn’t have a home-run swing. His swing is short, he hits the ball where it’s pitched and usually hits hard ground balls or line drivers. Not many home runs.

But Pearson does have power. In the last two seasons, he’s hit 45 doubles, including 21 for the Wingnuts in 2009. He hits gaps, and as he gets older one could expect those doubles to turn into homers. And perhaps they could. I don’t think it would be completely unfair to expect Pearson to at least double his home run total this season.

And if that happens, I think he’s perfect for the No. 3 spot. He’ll be followed by Mario Delgado and Ryan Patterson, more traditional middle-of-the-order hitters. And coming off a season in which he batted .304 with a .386 on-base percentage, Pearson is ready to take the next step. Or at least repeat those numbers. He and Thompson are the only three-year Wingnuts hitters, so Pearson will have more of a leadership role on this team. And he’ll lead by example, because vocal leadership isn’t really his personality.

I’d understand if Wingnuts manager Kevin Hooper didn’t bat Pearson third to start the season. He’s not prototypical for that spot. But he can do so much at the plate that you want him batting in the first inning and setting up the power hitters.

Season projection: 363 at-bats, 112 hits, .309 average, 4 home runs, 62 RBIs, 27 doubles, 5 triples, .444 slugging percentage, 40 walks, .385 on-base percentage.

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Yesterday we looked at the Wingnuts’ offense. While the star power isn’t there as much as it was last season, I think it will end up being just as effective or nearly effective.

I’m not sure you can say the same thing about the pitching. I’m not saying you can’t say the same thing about the pitching, I’m saying I’m not sure. On paper, at least, it doesn’t look quite as strong. But here’s the thing — Kevin Hooper is the manager. That should tell you two things — 1) I’m a total suck-up; 2) the pitching will probably be pretty good because Hooper put the staff together. The Wingnuts will, however, have to pick up the slack for losing probably their two best starters — Derek Blacksher and Will Savage. Blacksher moved on to the Atlantic League and Savage is pitching in High-A in the Dodgers’ organization.

The biggest acquisition for the staff was plucking Nick Singleton from Sioux City. Singleton will be the starter on Opening Day, and he’s looking for a rebound from a somewhat disappointing 2009 season. His ERA jumped nearly two points with a 4.04 mark, and he walked 59, giving him a walk rate of 4.1 per nine innings. That’s not very good, but it was the highest of his career so one could expect him to return to form this season.

Following Singleton in the rotation will be two holdovers from the 2009 team, Adam Cowart and Gabe Medina. Cowart is very reliable as a groundball pitcher who will keep hitters off balance and induce weak contact. Medina is more of a power pitcher, but with velocity in the high 80s, he also needs help from his secondary pitches. Not being the ace, as he was last year, could take pressure off Medina and perhaps allow him to pitch better in 2010. He had plenty of good moments last season but was quite inconsistent.

The rotation should be rounded out by Luke Massetti, who was 7-3 but with a 5.03 ERA for Shreveport a year ago. Doug Hurn, a holdover who pitched out of the bullpen in 2009, is a rotation option for the No. 5 spot. So is Brandon Mathes, a former Kansas Wesleyan right-hander who pitched for Joliet last season. Well, he pitched one game. 

The rotation will be full of new faces, except for Justin Dowdy, whom the Wingnuts acquired in a late-season trade. He’ll keep his job as closer, and with a full season in Wichita’s bullpen I believe he’ll thrive if he can limit walks.

Here are some other bullpen names to know:

Cephas Howard
Luke Demko
Dustin Pease
Matt Petty
Cole Akins
Brock Piper
Will Morgan

All of those guys appear to have pretty solid track records. I look forward to seeing how the staff comes together. Aside from Dowdy, nobody has a set role in the bullpen. And while Singleton appears to be the ace to start the season, there will be competition among the starters, too.