Monthly Archives: September 2009

Five For Fighting

Sept. 6, 20093:45 p.m.

Today we have the rare scenario in which, after Game 5 of the American Association North Division Championship Series, BOTH teams will be going home. Lincoln could be going back to Lincoln to play Game 1 of the AA Championship Series against Pensacola, or it could be going home for the winter. Same with the Wingnuts, who are already home. But you get what I’m saying, as lame an attempt at an interesting tidbit as that really was.

Last night, and I have to start with this, I guess — I had two issues on the Wingnuts side. And this isn’t completely fair because I didn’t ask either of the offending parties why they handled the situations the way they did. First, Greg Porter swinging twice on 3-0 counts in the late innings with Wichita desperately needing baserunners. I understand that Porter doesn’t like to walk and he expected to be grooved a pitch in both of those 3-0 counts. But a walk can do damage, too. It can rattle a pitcher, force him to pitch to the next batter differently, create a hit-and-run situation and so on.

So I guess swinging on 3-0 counts isn’t really the issue, though it kind of is. It’s that Porter swung 3-0 and made two outs. One was a fairly long out, but it was still an out. If you swing 3-0, especially in a tie game in which your team has gathered NO offensive traction, you pretty much have to hit the ball out of the ballpark, or at least be standing somewhere in scoring position. Porter has the green light 3-0 and you’d obviously rather have your best hitter swinging than walking. But if the pitcher is willing to throw one in the zone on 3-0, he’ll probably do the same on 3-1 and you’ll get your chance to hit a ball hard then. Just my opinion.

Also, I don’t know if I would have let closer Justin Dowdy back out for a second inning after he retired Lincoln in order in the 10th. That’s just me, though — not telling manager Kevin Hooper how to do his job, because we all know he’s better at it than I could ever dream to be. My thinking, though, was that you brought him in for one inning to hold Lincoln so you could theoretically score and win in the bottom of the 10th.

When that didn’t happen, I think you just have to push the reset button on that game. Start it fresh. The Wingnuts still had a rested long reliever, Brad Davis, in the bullpen. Bring him in — and it’s unlikely he would have had to go more than two or three innings — and you still have everybody else in the bullpen ready to go tomorrow. I doubt Hooper would label Dowdy unavailable today, but how will Dowdy fare a day after throwing 27 pitches, facing seven batters and getting the loss? Take him out after his first inning, and 11 pitches, and you’d probably feel much better about bringing him in for a save tonight.

The other issue was Michael Thompson failing to get from second to third on an attempted sacrifice by Brenan Herrera. I won’t get on Thompson too much for that, because just a half-inning earlier a Lincoln runner was thrown out at third in the same situation and Thompson was probably a little wary about suffering the same fate. And he was probably watching the ball roll toward third, and not the eyes of pitcher Justin Knoff, which apparently gave away that he was going to first, not third, for the out. So yeah, it was a mistake, but with one out the Wingnuts still had two chances to drive in Thompson.

All of yesterday doesn’t matter at this point, though. Lincoln won 3-1 in 11 innings and that’s why I’m here at Lawrence-Dumont Stadium writing this blog. We have a rematch today, with pitchers Will Savage and Jarrett Gardner squaring off for the second time in the series. Savage was strong in Wichita’s Game 1 win, Gardner not so strong in the loss. But like everything that happened last night, that doesn’t matter. Anything can happen tonight. And quite frankly, I have no feel whatsoever for this game. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Wingnuts won, nor would I be surprised if Lincoln did. It’s a total crapshoot, in my opinion.

But both teams are confident and ready. I look forward to watching and writing about this game, and maybe I’ll see you all again on Tuesday for a new Game 1. Or maybe not.

By Jeff Lutz | Filed under Uncategorized | Comments (1)

Playoffs and RBIs

Sept. 4, 20096:33 p.m.

We’ll label it a spirited conversation — spirited — the one I had with Dustan Mohr by the cage during batting practice today. He mentioned to me that I had previously said (possibly in this blog; I don’t really remember) that I thought runs batted in were an overrated statistic when it comes to measuring a player’s true individual value.

I get, and possibly even support the argument that the object of playing and winning a baseball game is to score runs, and that driving them in is also a necessity. As Allen Iverson would say, I know that — I honestly do. And I ain’t shoving it aside like it don’t mean nothin’. Sorry, I heard that clip on Jim Rome today and am pretty stuck on it even when I don’t hear it. But we’re talking about a player’s individual value. How good am I, on my own merits? In my opinion, RBIs don’t tell that story.

It’s because they’re reliant, for the most part, on other players. If it’s not a solo home run, you can’t drive in a run without somebody getting on base ahead of you. You can’t score runs without getting on base. I’m acknowledging that RBIs are important, but they’re only a situational stat. If I drive you in with a double, I still get the double. My on-base percentage goes up, my slugging percentage goes up. Even if I didn’t drive in a run with that double, the probability that my team scores goes up because of my double.

I don’t know, necessarily, how to put this argument into words. I just know what I think. The statistic I look at most is OPS+, which measures a player’s on-base plus slugging percentage against other players, with the score of 100 equaling league average, 101 being one percent above league average and so on. If you get on base enough and have a reasonably high slugging percentage, you’re going to drive in a lot of runs.

And if you don’t, it’s because the guys ahead of you in the lineup aren’t doing their jobs. If you come up every at-bat with the bases empty and hit .350 with a .400 OBP and .500 slugging percentage, you’re not going to get a lot of RBIs. But that doesn’t decrease your overall value. If you hit .250 and don’t get on base but get a lot of RBI opportunities and drive in 90, does that make you a good, valuable player?

So I’ll agree to disagree with Mohr because I respect his opinion as an ex-major league player. I know how major leaguers feel about RBIs and the “counting” statistics. I’ve been in major league clubhouses. I don’t knock those players for thinking that, I just fall into a different camp. I’m a stat geek, I never played the game, I live in my mom’s basement, etc. But part of what I love about baseball is the arguments it produces. Mohr took offense to my opinion, but I could have argued with him for days because I love talking about baseball, harmoniously or not.

Onto more important matters — the playoffs. Game 3 of the North Division series with Lincoln, to be exact. I called a Wichita sweep in my last post and was wrong. Now I’m calling a five-game series but not predicting a winner. I can’t even predict who wins tonight’s game because I don’t have a feel for Lincoln starter Tim Brown, who has good numbers but not much experience. He’s still a rookie, and I don’t care what level this is, it’s still a postseason game and he hasn’t pitched in one professionally before. He could be dominant, he could be average, he could be bad. Who knows? Another thing I love about baseball.

On the other hand, Wichita starter Derek Blacksher has pitched in the postseason — last year with Gateway of the Frontier League. But he’s young, too (as are most pitchers in this league, so I won’t hold that against Blacksher or Brown). I’m calling a low-scoring game. Which we know means it’ll be a slugfest, because my predictions are brutal, usually. We’ll see.

By Jeff Lutz | Filed under Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Land of Lincoln

Sept. 2, 20096:21 p.m.

I’m sitting in the press box of beautiful Haymarket Park in Lincoln, Neb., where the Wingnuts are playing Game 2 of the American Association North Division Championship Series tonight. I really dislike having to type that many capital letters in a row. From now on I’m just calling in the AANDCS. It doesn’t cut down on my capital letter usage, but at least it’s easier and quicker to type.

I don’t know if I got across in my right-on-deadline written story last night how thoroughly dominating Wichita’s performance was in their 6-2 win last night. On paper, it doesn’t look like the beatdown it actually was. And I guess you kind of have to blame the Wingnuts for that, since they left the bases loaded twice and could have really broken it open with another big hit or two.

But there was no doubt as to who was the better team. Since the Wingnuts finished nine games better than Lincoln during the regular season, I suppose you can change that “was” to an “is”. It’s been nearly 100 games, but during batting practice today I think I finally discovered the secret to the Wingnuts’ success. We’ll just use this series as an example — I don’t even think the Wingnuts know they’re playing Lincoln in this series. I think they’re competing against each other — who can get the most hits, who can hit the ball farthest in batting practice, etc.

Like today. Guys were crushing the ball in batting practice. Josh Horn is in a group with sluggers Dustan Mohr and Greg Porter, along with not-so-sluggerish Nick Blasi (sorry, Nick). After one round of BP, Horn looks at me and says, “I’m trying to hit the (L) screen, and these guys are trying to hit the ball out of the stadium. First pitch of the next round, Horn blasts one over the left-field wall, drops his bat and calls it a day. Nobody wants to be outdone by anyone else. It works that way on the pitching staff, too.

To that end, I’m calling Michael Thompson for a big game today. He was the only Wingnut without a hit last night, and I’m sure he’ll want to catch up with his teammates. I think Mohr also has a big game tonight. Dude is locked in.

More about last night’s domination, though. The Wingnuts outhit Lincoln 15-4 and got a tone-setting performance from starting pitcher Will Savage. Conversely, no tone (at least no good one) was set by Lincoln starter Jarrett Gardner, who tried to nick the corners with his slow stuff and left too many pitches over the plate. Wichita did hit some good pitches, though — usually for singles. Not trying to do too much.

Honestly, and I could be wrong since I’m not really factoring in the gumption of Lincoln’s players, which I haven’t experienced — I really think this will be a sweep. Like I said, I could be wrong. At worst, the series is over because I don’t think Lincoln can win 2 of 3 (or more) in Wichita. Oh, and about last night — I’ve just been informed that Kelly Hunt will be awarded a fourth RBI — he had three officially after last night, but he was given an extra one on a single to left that Gavin Dickey booted, allowing runners to advance. It seemed clear that Porter would have scored from second, so I think the right call has been made.

Had a nice couple days in Lincoln, even though the sun hasn’t been out since I’ve been here. That’s unfortunate, but I can’t really complain. The park is REALLY nice — I can see why I caught some flak for voting for Sioux Falls as the league’s best playing surface. It’s the only other one I’d seen! Besides St. Paul, of course, and I wasn’t too impressed with that one. I’ll say Lincoln wins that race, but Sioux Falls is still close. Lincoln has my favorite P.A. guy and organ player, that’s for sure.

As the season winds down, I wanted to mention that you know this blog has been used for some ribbing of people whom I’ve come in contact with throughout the course of the season. I appreciate all of you taking that how it is meant — good-naturedly. No harm meant. If you’re one of these people, you’re awesome for putting up with me, and I would be honored to one day be on the other end of such behavior.

Also, I really like the Lincoln game notes. The batter-vs.-pitcher facet of said notes is particularly valuable. That is all. Good luck to both teams tonight.

By Jeff Lutz | Filed under Uncategorized | Comments (0)