Lutz

It would be irresponsible to try and blame the collapses of the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves on any one or two individuals. Collapses of these proportions – Boston led the American League wild-card race by 9 games on Sept 3; Atlanta had an 8 1/2-game advantage on Sept. 6 – don’t happen without contributions from the entire roster.

Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel.

But I was curious about the back end of these games, where both the Red Sox and Braves had been dominant for most of the season.

Boston, which had an 82-51 record on Aug. 27 and was 8-21 the rest of the way, usually gave the baseball to Daniel Bard in the eighth inning and Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. For the most part, that formula worked.

Bard didn’t allow a run in 24 appearances in June and July. Not a run. And Papelbon came to late September having not allowed a run in 21 previous outings.

In his last four, tough, Papelbon was touched up for seven hits and four runs in 4.2 innings, blowing two save opportunities including the most costly one Wednesday night against the Baltimore Orioles. After dominating the first two Orioles hitters, Papelbon allowed a pair of doubles and a game-winning single.

Bard had a 2.03 ERA going into September and had allowed only 35 hits in 62 innings, striking out 63. Opposing teams almost never got to him.

But in 11 September games, Bard had a 10.64 ERA. He allowed 14 runs – 13 earned – in 11 innings. He walked nine. He went from dominant to doormat.

In Atlanta, the late-inning bullpen woes were just as pronounced.

For the Braves, left-hander Jonny Venters was entrusted with the eighth inning most of the season. Then hard-throwing right-hander Craig Kimbrel took care of the ninth.

They, along with seventh-inning specialist Eric O’Flaharty, made the covers of magazines. O’Flaharty kept right on pitching well through September. The same can’t be said for Venters and Kimbrel.

On Aug. 26, Venters had a nearly invisible 1.10 ERA. In 73.2 innings he had given up only 38 hits and nine earned runs, walking 32 and striking out 81. He was the nastiest southpaw reliever in baseball.

Then he became Santa Claus. In his final 15 appearances, Venters had a 5.65 ERA. He allowed 15 hits and nine earned runs in 14.1 innings. He also compounded his problems by issuing 11 walks. Venters, clearly, was pitching on fumes during the season’s final five weeks and he had to pitch out of a bases-loaded eighth inning jam against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday night to preserve a 3-2 lead.

A lead Kimbrel couldn’t hold.

A pitcher with 47 saves, a pitcher who limited opposing hitters to a .178 average, allowed a game-tying run in the ninth inning, continuing a late-season slide.

Kimbrel pitched in 38 consecutive games without allowing a run until Sept. 9, when his problems began. In his final eight appearances of the 2011 season, Kimbrel allowed seven hits and six runs in 7.1 innings. Before that stretch he had an ERA of 1.55. In those eight games – the most important games of his season – Kimbrel’s ERA was 7.37.

So here are the stark numbers involving the lock-down relief pitchers from the two teams with historical late season collapses.

In their combined final 38 appearances, here are the numbers for Venters, Kimbrel, Bard and Papelbon:

37.1 IP    40 hits    33 runs   32 earned runs   25 walks   45 strikeouts   7.72 ERA

For perspective, here are the combined numbers for those pitchers in their first 259 combined appearances:

265 IP    157 hits   56 runs   52 earned runs   84 walks   339 strikeouts   1.77 ERA

And finally, their combined numbers for the 2011 season:

302.1 IP   197 hits   89 runs   84 earned runs   109 walks   384 strikeouts   2.50 ERA

Interesting numbers. Baseball numbers lend themselves toward being interpreted a variety of ways. But it’s obvious late-inning bullpen woes were integral to the collapses of both the Red Sox and Braves. Getting outs late in games, as difficult as it is, does tend to be more consistent than most other aspects of baseball. So if you’re looking for the place to start when trying to explain why Boston and Atlanta are sitting at home this postseason, start with the supposedly reliable guys in the pen. Turns out, when needed most their reliability disappeared.

All 10 schools in the Big 12 - that’s how many there are, right? 12? – have played at least three games. A few have played four. And what we’re finding out so far is that most of the quarterbacks in this conference are on fire.

Big 12 starting quarterbacks – Texas really has three QBs sharing the duty – have completed 715 of 1,033 pass attempts, a .692 completion percentage. You can’t go out in your backyard and complete .692 of your passes to the kids in the neighborhood.

Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden has been a completion machine so far in 2011.

Those QBs have passed for 8,512 yards and 71 touchdowns, compared to only 24 interceptions. In some cases, competition has been lacking. But the hot-quarterback trend continued in the Oklahoma State-Texas A&M and Missouri-Oklahoma games over the weekend.

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III – or as the cool people call him, RG III – has completed 70 of 82 passes without throwing an interception. He has 962 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those numbers have vaulted Griffin to near the top of the Heisman Trophy discussion. Now the question becomes: How long can he remain there?

Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden, who didn’t make it in professional baseball as a pitcher, has been throwing more as the Cowboys’ quarterback. In four games, Weeden is 142 of 191 for 1,592 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has made thrown more passes than any quarterback in the country, but maintained a 74.4 percent completion percentage.

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones is another with gaudy QB numbers: 88 of 122, 1,022 yards, five touchdowns. Texas Tech’s Seth Doege has hit on 89 of 115 pass attempts for 943 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Of the 13 quarterbacks nationally to have completed 70 percent or more of their passes, four are from the Big 12. Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannahill and Missouri’s James Franklin are close to that percentage; they have combined to complete 152 of 238 passes for 1,877 yards.

I pick 15 players each week to consider for the Heisman Trophy and right now Weeden, Jones and Griffin III are on my list. In what order? I’d probably have to go with Weeden at No. 1 followed by Griffin and Jones. Several other quarterbacks are also in the mix, including Stanford’s Andrew Luck, Houston’s Case Keenum, Boise State’s Kellen Moore, Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson and a newcomer to my list, Clemson’s Tajh Boyd.

* Should be an interesting matchup in Manhattan on Saturday between Baylor and Kansas State.

The Bears have been unstoppable offensively, starting with their season-opening win over TCU. Not only does Griffin have a lot of receivers to throw to but the Bears have had a decent running attack, too. Baylor ranks No. 2 nationally in total offense, averaging 594 yards per game.

But how about that K-State defense? The Wildcats, atrocious defensively in 2010, have been a whole lot better this season, ranking No. 6 in team defense. They haven’t played against an offense with Baylor’s weapons – Miami is a nice team, but not close to a great one – so this will be the Wildcats’ biggest test.

The five teams that rank ahead of K-State defensively are: Michigan State, Alabama, Central Florida, Virginia Tech and Florida. After the Wildcats at No. 6 are Wisconsin, Penn State, SMU and Texas.

* Yes, starting to grip a bit about the St. Louis Cardinals’ game with Houston coming up in a while. The Cardinals are a game behind Atlanta for the National League wild-card lead.

St. Louis has three games against the worst team in baseball, on the road. The Braves start a three-game set tonight with the best team in baseball, Philadelphia, at Turner Field in Atlanta.

On paper – man, sometimes I really loathe paper – the Cardinals look to have an edge. At the very least, St. Louis should be able to move into a tie for the wild card and host a Thursday one-game playoff against the Braves in St. Louis. But as the past week or so has taught me – as if I didn’t know before – you can never count on anything happening in baseball. It’s an extremely fickle sport. I’ll be watching tonight from pitch to pitch, out to out. If you hear a scream coming from the near west-side, it’s just me.

This is what Friday on the blog is going to be for me. I’m just going to go with a stream of consciousness thing, with an emphasis on the college football and NFL weekend.

* The whole Big 12 mess, as I wrote about again this morning, is laughable. You have two kingpins (Texas and Oklahoma) and a pathetic wannabe kingpin (Missouri) doing all the talking. By the way, Missouri needs to shut it. I know MU chancellor Brady Deaton is the chairman of the Big 12. However, I’m not sure why and I’m not at all sure what the chairman of the Big 12 does. Deaton is talking a lot lately without saying anything. He professes his school’s commitment to the Big 12 all while winking and nodding toward the SEC. Listen, Missouri, you got shut down 15 months ago when you made all kinds of overtures toward an uninterested Big 10. And unless you have something in play with the SEC, this would be a good time to do what Oklahoma and Texas tell you to do. After all, that’s how this conference works now.

* I’m curious to see how Kansas State does on the road Saturday against Miami (Fla.) The Hurricanes are by no means a great football team yet, nothing like “The U” used to be. But Miami is improving and new coach Al Golden, I believe, will be successful now that that you-know-who booster is behind bars. You can’t compare the job Golden did at Temple to the one Bill Snyder did at Kansas State more than 20 years ago. Golden was only at Temple for five years. But the Owls had only two winning seasons in the 26 previous seasons before Golden was hired. During Golden’s final two years, Temple was 17-8. The guy can coach. Too bad he inherited what turned out to be an NCAA infractions bombshell waiting to happen.

* Kansas State’s takes its nationally top-rated defense to Miami for Saturday’s 2:30 game. How does that sound, K-Staters? Let’s see how long it lasts. No doubt, the Wildcats’ defense is improved. It couldn’t be much worse than last season. But shutting down Eastern Kentucky and Kent State is one thing; shutting down Miami and the high-powered offenses in the Big 12 is something else. Through two games, K-State is allowing 164 yards per game. That’s impressive, no matter the competition.

* Kansas State’s offense also will be tested by a fast and athletic Miami defense that gave up just six points to Ohio State last week. Now Ohio State is way, way down, but there are still some athletes on the field for the Buckeyes. Is this the week Bryce Brown gets his big chance at tailback for K-State? Or is he in the Witness Protection Program? I’m not convinced quarterback Colin Klein has enough to be a threat against top-notch defenses. I know Klein is big and can run some, but where’s the arm strength? Can he get the ball down the field or even to the sidelines consistently while moving in the pocket. Today’s game should be illuminating for K-State.

* Interesting facts about the Miami tradition. At least one former Hurricanes player has scored a touchdown in the NFL in every week since Week 15 of the 2002 season. That spans 141 weeks, an incredible statistic. Last week three ‘Canes scored TDs: Washington’s Santana Moss; Houston’s Andre Johnson; and Denver’s Willis MaGahee. Miami has had 21 players chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2000. Ohio State is next with 17. So while Miami’s team hasn’t been as good the past several years, the program is still churning out outstanding talent.

* Miami has turned the football over six times in its two games. K-State, meanwhile, has been plagued by penalties early on. Let’s see if the two teams can clean things up today.

* If Kansas State can win today, the Wildcats just might be able to get on a roll. KSU opens Big 12 play next Saturday at Bill Snyder Family Stadium against Baylor, then is at home against Missouri the following week. After that are road games at Texas Tech and Kansas. Then K-State runs into a buzz saw: Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, at Texas. But the Cats could make some hay the next four Saturdays.

* Yes, the Cardinals’ ninth-inning meltdown against the New York Mets on Thursday was almost more than I could take. It caused my mood to take a frighteningly sour turn, which my poor wife had to suffer through. But I’m better now. And still hopeful. The Cardinals have to make up two games on the Braves. There are six to play. St. Louis has the Chicago Cubs at home for three before finishing the regular season with three at Houston. Atlanta is on the road at Washington and plays Philadelphia and home to finish. There’s an advantage for the Cardinals. But there are also two games to make up.

* I was happy to see that Lance Berkman will be back in St. Louis next season. He’s been a great complement to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the middle of the Cardinals’ order. Of course, the Pujols contract situation is very much up in the air. So, even when the season finishes (whenever that might be) there’s that to deal with. Pass the Tums.

* Loved the Thursday debuts of “The Office” and “Parks and Recreation,” probably my two favorite comedies. “Modern Family” and “The Middle” are right there, too. I think James Spader will be a great addition to “The Office” and Ed Helms will be interesting in Steve Carrell’s role as office manager. With so much to do in the opener in terms of establishing new roles, I thought the debut was an 8 out of 10. And I throw this question out there: Has Amy Poehler supplanted Tina Fey as the funniest woman on network television? Discuss, please. I’d love your feedback.

Time for predictions

College football

Georgia Tech 34, North Carolina 30

Alabama 24, Arkansas 20

Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 24 – This is my favorite game of the weekend in college football. I can’t figure out why A&M is a four-point favorite, even at home.

Clemson 23, Florida State 17

California 28, Washington 20 – I always think a lot of the Jeff Tedford-coached Bears. And they always let me down. Will this season be any different?

Oklahoma 30, Missouri 20

LSU 21, West Virginia 10

NFL

New England 34, Buffalo 24

Carolina 24, Jacksonville 17 – Cam Newton has another big day. How about this guy?

Cleveland 20, Miami 17

Tennessee 26, Denver 17

Philadelphia 28, New York Giants 21 – Michael Vick has been cleared to play. But unless he’s cleared to remain healthy the Eagles’ position is precarious.

Detroit 27, Minnesota 17 – The Lions win another one on the road two weeks after beating Tampa Bay.

San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 19

New Orleans 34, Houston 31 – Can’t wait to watch this shoot-out. Go Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. I say that only because I have them on my fantasy team. I love my fantasy team.

New York Jets 21, Oakland 17

San Diego 40, Kansas City 10 – Hey, Chiefs fans, if you think this game will be closer drop me a line. But do you really believe that?

Baltimore 24, St. Louis 13 – My Rams are being my used-to-be Rams with every loss. I, as you know, run up front.

Green Bay 26, Chicago 20 – The Bears are a fashionable pick at home. My fashion isn’t very good.

Arizona 28, Seattle 12

Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 17

Pittsburgh 30, Indianapolis 13

Dallas 29, Washington 24

Last week, I picked nine of 13 winners in my college picks and was 13-3 in the NFL. That’s not against the spread, so take it for what it’s worth.

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend. I’ll check back over the week with my thoughts on the Kansas State-Miami game.

There’s nothing like being a fan of a major league baseball team. The highs and the lows of 162 games, I’m convinced, create some insanity in those of us who follow our teams closely.

My level of insanity is probably higher than most thanks to nearly 50 years now of being a St. Louis Cardinals honk. I love the

St. Louis right-hander Kyle Lohse delivers a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night. Lohse pitched well, which made me very happy.

Cardinals. I hate the Cardinals. And every emotion in between.

But I will forever be a Cardinals fan.

That said, St. Louis was 10 1/2 games out of everything on Aug. 25. The season was going nowhere. The team was playing flat. And I was just not into it like I should have been.

There is a strange sense of peace that comes when your team falls out of contention. Baseball fans know what I mean by that, I’m sure. You no longer have to grind along with your team every day. You’re more likely to find something else to do when a game is on television. You actually start to have a life outside of baseball and that team you so identify with, even though the people on that team have no idea who you are.

Being a fan is such a strange thing. But once you’re a fan, it’s impossible to stop being one. This is a curse that was passed to me from my father, who introduced me to the radio voices of Harry Carey and Jack Buck, who introduced me to Cardinals baseball.

Fast forward to now: Sept. 20, 2011. The Cardinals have found themselves over the past couple of weeks while the Atlanta Braves are gagging like a vegetarian being handed a leg of lamb. As play begins tonight, St. Louis trails Atlanta by two games in the loss column and both are speeding in decidedly different directions.

The Cardinals begin a six-game homestand tonight against the New York Mets. The Chicago Cubs hit St. Louis later in the week and the Cardinals finish the regular season at Houston, which is having a season like the old Houston Colt ’45s had in the first couple of years after expansion.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is playing at Florida, then goes to Washington before finishing up at home against Philadelphia. St. Louis has a much easier schedule remaining.

And so, as a fan, you start to do the math. And you start to play out these scenarios in your brain, which has been so overloaded throughout the decades by one scenario after another. Hopes rise, but with a single loss or a single Atlanta win those hopes are momentarily dashed. You might understand, theoretically, that baseball is a game that can change on a dime. Thus, so is a season. Yet it’s impossible not to treat every game as life or death, especially as we approach the final nine days of a regular season that started back in late March.

I was in New York City on Opening Day. Wichita State was to meet Alabama in the NIT championship game that night. I spent the late afternoon watching the Cardinals at home against San Diego, a game they would lose just 30 minutes or so before the opening tip of the Shockers-Tide game.

In some ways, it seems like 20 years ago. In another, it feels like yesterday.

A baseball season is literally a journey for those of us who pay close attention. When it starts, the possibilities are endless. And when it ends, there is a sadness and a jolt back to the realities of a life without baseball that I never really adjust to.

I love other sports. I enjoy covering college football and college basketball as much as I ever have. But there’s always something missing when baseball is over.

So I cherish these games that matter late in the season. That doesn’t mean I’m not a basket case. It’s funny, because my wife, Debbie, is the one who acts out her apprehension. I normally just sit in my chair and watch unless something dramatic happens. Then I yell, which leads to her jumping from her chair, which leads to me apologizing, which leads to both of us laughing.

Until the next pitch, and then I need to focus.

If there are things about a person that most identify him or her, near the top of my list is being a Cardinals fan. It’s who I am. I don’t wear Cardinals gear very often. I’m not like that. But I am into this team full bore. Tonight, the Cardinals go against Mets starter Mike Pelfrey. I have known Mike since he was a 12-year-old pitching at Westurban. I think he’s a great guy and in any other game, I would want him to throw a shutout.

Tonight, though, I hope the Cardinals score five or six runs in the first inning. And then keep adding on. I could use a blowout win and a Florida win over Atlanta tonight. When it’s going well, I get greedy. I’m not necessarily proud of this aspect of my personality. But there’s not a thing I can do about it.

Kansas made me take notice last week with its impressive offensive display against Northern Illinois.

I suspect N. Illinois’ defense was a big part of that Jayhawks’ explosion and we should find out more about the Huskies on Saturday

Kansas sophomore quarterback Jordan Webb.

when they are at home against a really good Wisconsin.

But if KU’s offense is the real deal this is going to be a better season for the Jayhawks than I anticipated. And I didn’t anticipate a lot.

There is no doubt that Kansas has questions defensively. Northern Illinois rolled up and down the football field last week against KU.

But I will be front and center today, watching the Kansas-Georgia Tech game from Atlanta. Last season, you’ll recall, the Jayhawks upset the Yellow Jackets a week after dropping their home opener against North Dakota State. It was one of the most shocking wins of the season, a result no one could have ever predicted.

Now, I presume, Georgia Tech is all about revenge. And the Yellow Jackets have been even more impressively offensively than Kansas, rolling up 112 points and 1,258 yards of offense in beating Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee State. That’s a couple of patsies, for sure, but remember that KU’s defense hasn’t looked good yet, including allowing McNeese State a bunch of yards.

It looks like a shootout is on tap today, although I’m sure one of the emphasis points for Kansas this week has been to improve defensively. I wasn’t impressed with any element of the Jayhawks’ defense last week and I’m not sure how much room there is for growth. It looks to me like KU has made it a priority to improve offensively – which so far it has – and has not been as focused on defense.

Georgia Tech, I suspect, will score a lot of points. The question becomes: Can Kansas match the Rambling Wreck’s offensive output?

KU quarterback Jordan Webb looked like a legitimate Big 12 quarterback last week, making all the throws. He was pinpoint from the pocket and when rolling out and scrambling. He’s had games like that in the past, only to battle with consistency. I’m saying Webb is close to establishing himself as one of the fine quarterbacks in the the Big 12, which has a lot of good ones.

I also like KU’s running game, led by sophomore James Sims with the help of three exciting freshmen. Junior D.J. Beshears is a real weapon as a runner, receiver and returner. And the Kansas offensive line is experienced and talented. There’s no reason to think the Jayhawks won’t be a good to very good offensive team in 2011.

But the defense and a challenging Big 12 schedule will probably keep KU from winning more than four or five games. Considering that just a week ago most people were predicting two or three, that’s a vast improvement. A win at Georgia Tech would force us to re-evaluate, again, what Kansas is capable of accomplishing this season.

My weekend college picks

(I’ll keep my record both straight up and against the spread)

Georgia Tech 40, Kansas 31

Kansas State 24, Kent State 10

Boise State 40, Toledo 21 (Friday night)

West Virginia 24, Maryland 21

Auburn 27, Clemson 20

Texas 28, UCLA 17

Florida 30, Tennessee 20

Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 24

Wisconsin 47, Northern Illinois 20

Arizona State 28, Illinois 13

Miami (Fla.) 24, Ohio State 21

Florida State 20, Oklahoma 17

Stanford 41, Arizona 21

And the NFL

Pittsburgh 27, Seattle 10

Buffalo 24, Oakland 21

Arizona 20, Washington 14

Tampa Bay 28, Minnesota 24

New York Jets 28, Jacksonville 13

New Orleans 21, Chicago 17

Green Bay 31, Carolina 14

New England 30, San Diego 24

Baltimore 26, Tennesssee 7

Detroit 31, Kansas City 17

Cleveland 28, Indianapolis 17

Dallas 24, San Francisco 21

Denver 20, Cincinnati 17

Houston 34, Miami 24

Atlanta 24, Philadelphia 23

New York Giants 20, St. Louis 13