Lutz

The baseball season starts today, but as I look out my hotel window in New York I see some rain, lots of clouds and people bundled in coats and jackets.

Still, this is an exciting day. For me, especially, because I have such deep passion for the game and for the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Skip Schumaker

I’m at once anticipating and dreading the season, feelings to which I suspect all fans can relate. I have high hopes for the Cardinals but legitimate concerns.

1) Starting pitching. Adam Wainwright is out after Tommy John surgery. Former reliever Kyle McClellan is in the rotation. I like McClellan, but he’s no Wainwright. Which means Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse need to be good. Really good. Starting pitchers need to get into the sixth and, even better, seventh and eighth innings of games. I hope this group is able to do that consistently. I have my doubts.

2) The bullpen. The Cardinals have a shaky closer, Ryan Franklin. He usually gets the job done, but when he doesn’t things can get really ugly really fast. I keep waiting for fire-ballers Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs to solidify themselves as outstanding components of the pen, and I’m still waiting. This group makes me nervous.

3) Lance Berkman. He’s 35. He used to be one of the best hitters in the game but last season was not good for Berkman, who was injured and ultimately dealt from Houston to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Not only are the Cardinals hoping for an offensive resurrection from Berkman, they’re moving him to right field, a position he hasn’t played in a while. Keeping my fingers crossed. Definitely upside here if Berkman can revert to form, but it’s an $8 million risk.

4) David Freese. Can the third baseman stay healthy for a full season. This guy has a live bat and crushes to all fields. I love his game. But he’s got to be in the game and his chronically-injured ankles aren’t a guarantee to hold up.

5) Ryan Theriot. He’s the Cardinals’ new shortstop. Brendan Ryan, one of the best defensive shortstops in the game – and one of the worst hitters – was traded to Seattle. I have always thought Theriot was a pretty good player, but he didn’t hit much this spring and he’s not as good defensively as Ryan. We’ll see.

I think the Cardinals could win the National League Central and I think they could finish fourth. Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Cubs are factors. Houston has good pitching but nothing else. Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh.

I like it that the Cardinals are sending Chris Carpenter to the mound today against the San Diego Padres. I like it that Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are going to hit 3-4 in the lineup. I think center fielder Colby Rasmus, still only 24, is going to have a breakout year. Yadier Molina is the best catcher in the game. I think Skip Schumaker bounces back from a disappointing offensive season in 2010 to hit his customary .300.

If things go true to form, I’ll watch probably 120 Cardinals games this season. Maybe more. It’s an emotional ringer I go through every summer, but I can never turn back. I’ve been this way with this team for close to 50 years.

There are things I don’t want to think about much as the season begins, Albert Pujols’ contract situation being at the top of the list. There’s nothing I can do about that, so I’m just going to enjoy Pujols and hope this won’t be his last season in a Cardinals uniform. If it is, I’ll deal with that when the time comes.

I’m sure most of you have your favorite team, too, and I wish you luck. It’s always great when you’re team is 0-0. Now, if the Cardinals fall to 0-1 today against San Diego, I’m going to be pretty frustrated. If they’re 1-0, it’ll have been a good day. But the thing about baseball is that the next game is always just around the corner.

My picks:

AL East

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Tampa Bay

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

AL Central

1. Chicago

2. Minnesota

3. Detroit

4. Cleveland

5. Kansas City

AL West

1. Oakland

2. Texas

3. Los Angeles Angels

4. Seattle

ALDS

Oakland over New York

Boston over Texas (wild card)

ALCS

Boston over Oakland

NL East

1. Philadelphia

2. Atlanta

3. Florida

4. Washington

5. New York

NL Central

1. St. Louis (I hate everyone else)

2. Cincinnati

3. Milwaukee

4. Chicago

5. Houston

6. Pittsburgh

NL West

1. Colorado

2. San Francisco

3. Los Angeles

4. San Diego

5. Arizona

NLDS

Philadelphia over San Francisco (wild card)

Colorado over St. Louis

NLCS

Colorado over Philadelphia

World Series

Boston over Colorado

I flew into New York just a few minutes ago. I’ve been five times now, but I still don’t have a comfort level. I’m not even sure natives have a comfort level. Nothing bad, it’s just so immense, so unnerving, so awesome.

We flew in over the city at dusk and the view as magnificent. Of course, I didn’t take a picture because if I had pulled my cell phone out on the plane to do so – well, I should have done that. I apologize. I don’t think like a modern social networking guru should think and that’s my fault. I blame my age.

Anyway, I’m in the hotel I’m sharing with Wichita State beat writer Paul Suellentrop. I’ve been rooming with men a lot lately. Insert joke.

We’re here, of course, to cover the Shockers in the NIT and we’re staying at the Affinia Hotel just across from Madison Square Garden. Tomorrow, Bruce Haertl and I will do our radio show, Sports Daily, from the studios of WABC Radio on the 17th floor of the Penn Building, which is also the building that houses MSG. Yes, we’re important. My plan is to woo Diane Sawyer and get some kind of job with the network. I’ll keep you posted on how that goes.

* Boy, some of you really hate Kansas. Listen, I saw the game Sunday against VCU and the Rams were fantastic, especially in the first half. But Kansas was off its game and while I give VCU a ton of credit, there was something missing with the Jayhawks, namely shooting.

VCU dictated the pace, but KU loves playing at a fast pace. It wasn’t that the Jayhawks didn’t get good shots. They just missed a lot of them. When are Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar going to combine to go 2 for 16?

The better team on Sunday won. I have a hard time believing VCU is a better team than Kansas on most days. Again, that’s not a swipe against the Rams. I think what this year’s tournament – and so many in the past few years – has shown is that more “mid-majors” deserve to be in the 68-team field. Let’s cut down the BCS schools by four or five and give those spots to mid-majors. If we did that, Wichita State and Missouri State probably would have gotten in this year.

Then again, people will point out that Connecticut, the eighth-place finisher in the Big East, is in the Final Four. So do we just throw 128 teams into the mix? Of let them all have a shot?

Personally, I wouldn’t like that. But I do believe there should be a better way to set the field without the current dependence on RPI and non-conference strength of schedule. The mid-majors have a difficult time getting the big boys of college basketball to play them. So let’s punish the big boys, unless they start scheduling more of the teams from the Colonial, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, Horizon and the like. Make it mandatory that BCS schools have to play a certain number of those teams from the mid-majors. Not the low-majors, the mid-majors.

Butler, especially, has shown those schools belong. And now VCU has stepped up to the plate. We’ve seen it time and time again in the tournament.

* Since teams started being seeded for the NCAA Tournament in 1981, Kansas has won two national championships and lost games in the other 26 tournaments.

Of those 26 defeats, 14 have come against lower-seeded teams, six seeded 8 or lower. And it has really been a trend under Bill Self, who led the Jayhawks to a national championship in 2008 but barely held off a 10-seed, Davidson, in the regional finals in Detroit.

In 2005, KU lost to a 14 seed, Bucknell, in the first round. The next year, 13th-seeded Bradley beat the Jayhawks in the first round. In 2007, KU, a 1-seed, made it to the West Regional finals before losing to UCLA, a 2-seed.

Last season, ninth-seeded Northern Iowa knocked off  the Jayhawks in the second round and now VCU, another 10, beats Kansas in the regional finals.

That’s a lot of disappointment. And a lot of under-achieving.

Shaka Smart, VCU’s basketball coach, made a great impression while talking to the media Saturday as his Rams prepare to face Kansas on Sunday with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Shaka Smart

I didn’t know much about Smart, VCU’s 34-year-old coach who is in his second season with the Rams after being an assistant at Florida, Clemson, Akron and Dayton. He played at tiny Kenyon College in Ohio. He’s originally from Madison, Wis. And he was captivating during his 45 minutes on the dais.

I remarked to somebody that Smart did even more to enhance his appeal to athletic directors seeking a new coach while answering questions and giving America more of an idea who he is. And KU coach Bill Self, who came on after Smart, said life is going to change for the VCU coach because of this NCAA Tournament success.

“It’s going to become – crazier is not the right word – but in our profession he’s going to live in the fast lane more going forward,” Self said. “Expectations are going to change and yoru recruiting base changes – not the base but the opportunity to maybe recruit a different guy, so to speak. It’s a fun, exciting time, but certainly the reality sets in that the more you taste it the more you like it and that makes you very hungry as a coach.”

Here are some of the things Smart had to say during his Saturday media session:

On the background and history of his first name.

“It’s the best thing my dad ever did for me, because I was raised primarily by my mom. Shaka is an African name, named after a king in southern Africa who united hundreds of thousands of people. He was a warrior, he was a tough dude, and my dad chose to name me after him. You may have seen the movie “Shaka Zulu.” That’s who I’m named after. When I was growing up, and still to this day, I get kidded a lot about that. People call me that or Chaka Khan, different things. It doesn’t bother me, I’ve heard it all before.”

On being the flavor of the month among hot coaching candidates.

“It’s something that goes with the territory of advancing in the NCAA Tournament. It’s just the way our basketball culture works. It’s not necessarily right or fair, it just is what it is. And I try not to get caught up in all of that. The reality is that I have a phenomenal opportunity to be the coach at a school that I love and to every single day work with players that I absolutely adore and care about. And that’s where my focus is and that’s where my focus will be.”

On picking Kenyon College over schools like Harvard, Yale and Brown.

“I chose Kenyon because of the basketball coach (Bill Brown). I was accepted to those Ivy League schools but I’m from the Midwest. And to be honest, that kind of East Coast, fast-paced attitude was a little intimidating to me when I went out there and visited. And I had a very strong relationship with the coach at Kenyon College. He’s the closest thing I’ve had to a father figure in my life. Going to Kenyon was an easy decision because of the relationship he and I had established.”

On the importance of education in his life.

“I didn’t have a choice. My mom didn’t have a lot of rules. I didn’t have a curfew when I was a kid. I never had to make my bed. But if I came home with a bad grade then I wasn’t able to do what I wanted to do, which was play basketball and the other sports that I competed in. And sometimes a bad grade was as high as a ‘B.’ So I had to excel in the classroom. At the time, I really didn’t understand it but I really appreciate it now because when I went to college I wanted to do well for one reason and that was just to make my mom happy and make her proud and to follow what she had taught me.

“But what happened was a beautiful thing. In college, I found a subject matter (history) that I really enjoyed and classes that I loved. And all of a sudden I started learning because I enjoyed it and because I wanted to. I wish that would happen for everyone who goes to college because I think that’s what it’s all about. It opens up so many opportunities for learning.”

College basketball has such a great postseason tournament, but it’s unfortunate there is so much talk about which coach is going to end up where at this time of the year. It tends to drown out even the enormity of the NCAA Tournament.

So with that being said, my topic today is coaching openings and possible ramifications. Because, like you, I’m fascinated with the stuff. It amazes me how so many coaches who supposedly preach loyalty and integrity are so quick jump at a new job. I think it’s all about their egos. These guys need to consistently be stroked. Not all of them, but more than you would think.

Missouri now has an opening after Mike Anderson jilted the Tigers, after saying time and time again he was going to stay, and moved to Arkansas. I read the St. Louis Post-Dispatch every day online, because of its Cardinals coverage, but I also take a look at what columnist Bernie Miklasz writes in his blog. Today, he went through a list of potential candidates for the Mizzou opening. Names are being thrown around with no regard as to whether they might indeed be interested. It comes with the territory.

Miklasz likes Missouri State’s Cuonzo Martin for the Missouri job and it makes sense. He’s from East St. Louis and has done a very good job at Missouri State. But, has he done enough? I think it’s a fair question. Martin’s team this season was loaded with upperclassmen, most of whom he didn’t recruit.

Miklasz also mentioned Northern Iowa’s Ben Jacobsen, who I think would be an outstanding hire for Missouri. And, yes, he mentioned Gregg Marshall of Wichita State. Although his words weren’t kind. Here’s what Miklasz wrote about Marshall:

* Gregg Marshall, Wichita State: Did an exceptional job in a steppingstone job at Winthrop, leading the team to seven NCAA Tournaments in nine years. Had to rebuild Wichita State and is four years in; finished second in each of the last two seasons. Kind of a quirky personality, which is a polite way to put it. OK, let me be more direct: the guy can be a real jerk. (Then again, so can I.)

Hmmm. Makes you wonder where Miklasz is getting his information, since I don’t think he’s been around Marshall once. He sees him at the Valley tournament, but calling a guy a “jerk” is a pretty strong statement.

I like Miklasz’s work and he’s not usually one to say something like this. Are other coaches telling him Marshall is a jerk? Is he getting that perspective from the people who work for the Missouri Valley Conference?

I have been around Marshall – a lot – and I would not call him a jerk. He is a bit high strung and perhaps overly sensitive to what is written and said about him. And he pays too much attention to that stuff, in my opinion. He and I have had our go-’rounds, but he’s going to get a lot more of guys like me in bigger markets, if and when he decides to make a move.

On the plus side, I think Marshall is a funny and very smart guy. And a good coach, especially as it relates to getting his players to play hard. The Shockers rarely take nights off, especially defensively. He’s a proven winner and I think he would win at Missouri, North Carolina State or the NBA, if that’s where ends up someday.

I have been around enough coaches in my life to get some sense as to what makes one successful while another might struggle. Marshall has the intangibles. He’s tough on players, but they know he has their backs. His kids are great and his wife, Lynn, is a lot of fun.

As I have written before, I have no idea if Marshall is interested in leaving Wichita State. I know he was asked about the subject last night after WSU’s win over College of Charleston in the NIT and denied having been contact, or made contact, with any school. I have no reason to doubt that he’s telling the truth, although coaches have a way of stretching the truth when it comes to job searches.

In talking to other reporters and columnists here in San Antonio to cover the Southwest Regional, it’s noteworthy that some who cover Kansas on a daily basis are curious as to whether Danny Manning might be interested in the Wichita State job should Marshall leave. There are rumors floating that Manning has made it known he would be interested in the Shockers. Remember, that’s just a rumor. But it’s a fascinating one.

Would Manning, in his fourth season as a KU assistant coach, potentially be a good fit? I’m not sure, I can see both sides. Manning has a cool relationship with a lot of media members. Three years ago, when the Jayhawks were in San Antonio for the Final Four, he wouldn’t talk to reporters about his induction into the College Basketball Hall of Fame.

He has, however, done a masterful job coaching the Jayhawks’ big guys, specifically Marcus and Markieff Morris and Thomas Robinson. All have made great improvement under Manning’s tutelage. And he is Danny Manning, one of the biggest names in the history of KU basketball.

Again – and I can’t stress this enough – there is no reason to think Marshall is going anywhere. And there isn’t one bit of evidence out there, as far as I can determine, that he has even been approached or that he is looking. I know he loves coaching basketball at Wichita State and that he’s amazed by the support from Shocker fans. He has a good thing and he knows it.

I love this time of the year, and not just because the NCAA Tournament is in full swing and the MLB season is just around the corner. I love it because the grass is getting greener and flowers are starting to think about blooming.

But I really love this time of the year because of coaching changes in college basketball. Just today, Bruce Pearl went down at Tennessee, which wasn’t a shock. Pearl had to be dismissed and I’m sure some school will give him a job. He might have to take a year

Gregg Marshall could be an attractive candidate for some program.

off – Billy Gillispie had to take some time after leaving Kentucky and now has re-surfaced at Texas Tech – but Pearl isn’t finished in the game.

No coach who is a proven winner is ever finished.

Which brings us to some interesting openings around the country, where jobs at Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Carolina State and now Tennessee are open.

Of course, the hot names are the coaches who are making runs in the NCAA Tournament, especially Shaka Smart at VCU. Interesting, since just a couple of weeks ago Smart was viewed as a guy who was not winning enough because of the Rams’ fourth place finish in the Colonial. But now he’s hot, thanks the his team’s three NCAA Tournament wins that has gotten VCU to the Sweet 16.

Richmond’s Chris Mooney, whose Spiders meet Kansas in the Sweet 16 on Friday night in San Antonio, is another hot name.

But what does a run in the NIT do for a coach? And yes, I’m talking about Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall. If the Shockers get to the semifinals in New York – and perhaps even deeper – does Marshall jump off the page?

I think that happened a while back, honestly. I think there are schools out there who will at least make a phone call to Marshall or his representatives to gauge the interest of the Shockers’ coach, who is finishing his fourth season at WSU. I have no “inside” information to support my case; it’s just a hunch. Well, a hunch founded in following coaching searches with interest for quite a while now.

Marshall isn’t a young coach moving up the ranks. He’s a veteran coach who has slowly but consistently built on his resume.

But if Marshall isn’t viewed as a hot candidate for some of these openings, it’s because athletic directors and college presidents have to make a sell. It’s going to be easier for an AD to convince a fan base that Smith, Mooney or Xavier’s Chris Mack, for instance, are more glamorous hires than Marshall. Perhaps Kansas State’s Frank Martin jumps at one of these openings now that he’s established himself as a consistent winner who also has strong recruiting ties to the East.

I’m going to zero in on Marshall and Smart and try to convince you that Marshall is the better candidate of the two.

First, he inherited a program that was low on talent when he took over. It took him a couple of years just to re-stock the cupboards, but in the past couple of years the Shockers have reached the NIT and, if  the Missouri Valley Conference had been stronger overall, would have been in the NCAA Tournament. For my money, Marshall is a safe hire in that he’s going to win wherever he goes.

Smart might be the finest young coach out there, but I have some concerns. He inherited a VCU program from Anthony Grant, who led the Rams to a 76-25 record in three years before leaving for Alabama after the 2008-09 season. He was replaced by Smart, who had been an assistant at Florida for one season before taking over at VCU. Before that, Smart was an assistant at Clemson, Akron, Dayton and California U. (Pa.)

In Smart’s two seasons, VCU is 53-20 overall. Very good, but not as good as Grant’s teams. In Colonial play, VCU is 23-13 under Smart; it was 45-9 under Grant and before that 51-21 under Jeff Capel.

My point is that I think it’s too early to judge Smart as a head coach. He’s getting tremendous run at the moment because of what the Rams are doing in the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no doubt it’s been impressive. I just don’t think he’s as proven as Marshall, who still has those nine great years at Winthrop to show to any athletic director in the process of hiring a new coach.

I’m not saying Marshall is leaving Wichita State. I’m not even saying he’s interested in leaving WSU, because I’ve never had a conversation with him about the subject.

I’m saying he would make sense as a candidate for one of the openings. I know there were boosters at North Carolina State who liked him a few years back for the Wolfpack finally settled on former basketball star Sidney Lowe. It didn’t work out. NC State has not been able to contend with Duke, North Carolina and other programs in the ACC. The Wolfpack will be looking for an energetic coach who isn’t afraid to stand toe to toe with Coach K and Roy Williams. It’s not an easy job.

I would think NC State will try to lure Sean Miller away from Arizona. He’s a great coach who did a fantastic job at Xavier before moving to Tucson two years ago. Miller is a former Wolfpack assistant under Herb Sendek at a time when Miller’s brother, Archie, was a star player for NC State.

It’s fascinating stuff and it’s just getting started. Keep an eye out.