Analyzing K-State’s bowl possibilities

We will know Kansas State’s bowl destination in three days, but that doesn’t mean the Wildcats know (or even have a good idea of) where they will play this postseason.

K-State seems to be in contention for four different bowl games, and how it plays against Iowa State on Saturday will only partially impact its destination. Several games across the nation could impact where K-State goes.

Here is a deeper look at the bowl scenarios currently facing K-State:

Sugar Bowl
Current Odds: Possible.
If K-State beats Iowa State and earns an invitation to a BCS bowl, it will likely end up in the Sugar Bowl. What will it take for the Wildcats to earn a BCS bid? A lot. There are only two at-large bids to BCS bowls to go around as long as Houston remains undefeated and Stanford remains in the top four of the BCS standings. And Alabama will likely take one of them to play in the BCS title game. The next most likely at-large candidates: Michigan, K-State, Boise State and possibly Oklahoma State if it loses in Bedlam. The Wildcats could emerge from that group as the top choice. The Sugar Bowl did send a representative to K-State’s game against Texas A&M. But Michigan and Oklahoma State would be very appealing, too. Houston losing in the Conference USA championship game will boost K-State’s chances.

Fiesta Bowl
Current Odds: Long shot.
The only realistic way K-State can end up in the Fiesta Bowl is if Oklahoma State finds its way into the BCS title game and it chooses to replace the Cowboys with the Wildcats.

Cotton Bowl
Current Odds: Best bet.
Arlington, Texas remains K-State’s most likely destination. The Cotton Bowl loves the idea of inviting the Wildcats, because they haven’t played there in years, their fans travel well and Dallas is one of K-State’s biggest alumni bases. If both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State make BCS bowls, K-State will almost certainly end up in the Cotton Bowl. If Oklahoma State is shutout of the BCS it could end up here based on its head-to-head win over K-State. And Oklahoma could push K-State out if both teams finish 9-3, because it also beat the Wildcats this season. But if the Wildcats finish 10-2, odds are they finish Cotton Bowl or higher.
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An updated look at bowl possibilities

So much has happened since we blogged about Kansas State’s bowl possibilities last week that the Dallas Football Classic is now the TicketCity Bowl.

Personally, I’m torn on the name change. The old name was sponsor free, which is always a plus. But it wasn’t even technically a bowl. And how could it be a Classic if its first game is yet to be played?

I digress.

There are many other big changes to discuss. Mainly that K-State became bowl eligible by pounding Texas last week. With Colorado and North Texas (two teams suffering through seasons so bad that they have already fired their coaches) remaining on the schedule, most are projecting the Wildcats to finish 8-4.

In their weekly bowl projections, Sports Illustrated, Rivals and ESPN think K-State is headed to the Holiday Bowl. But another expert believes K-State is on its way to the Pinstripe Bowl.

But with three games remaining, there are plenty of possibilities out there.
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