Analyzing K-State’s bowl possibilities

We will know Kansas State’s bowl destination in three days, but that doesn’t mean the Wildcats know (or even have a good idea of) where they will play this postseason.

K-State seems to be in contention for four different bowl games, and how it plays against Iowa State on Saturday will only partially impact its destination. Several games across the nation could impact where K-State goes.

Here is a deeper look at the bowl scenarios currently facing K-State:

Sugar Bowl
Current Odds: Possible.
If K-State beats Iowa State and earns an invitation to a BCS bowl, it will likely end up in the Sugar Bowl. What will it take for the Wildcats to earn a BCS bid? A lot. There are only two at-large bids to BCS bowls to go around as long as Houston remains undefeated and Stanford remains in the top four of the BCS standings. And Alabama will likely take one of them to play in the BCS title game. The next most likely at-large candidates: Michigan, K-State, Boise State and possibly Oklahoma State if it loses in Bedlam. The Wildcats could emerge from that group as the top choice. The Sugar Bowl did send a representative to K-State’s game against Texas A&M. But Michigan and Oklahoma State would be very appealing, too. Houston losing in the Conference USA championship game will boost K-State’s chances.

Fiesta Bowl
Current Odds: Long shot.
The only realistic way K-State can end up in the Fiesta Bowl is if Oklahoma State finds its way into the BCS title game and it chooses to replace the Cowboys with the Wildcats.

Cotton Bowl
Current Odds: Best bet.
Arlington, Texas remains K-State’s most likely destination. The Cotton Bowl loves the idea of inviting the Wildcats, because they haven’t played there in years, their fans travel well and Dallas is one of K-State’s biggest alumni bases. If both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State make BCS bowls, K-State will almost certainly end up in the Cotton Bowl. If Oklahoma State is shutout of the BCS it could end up here based on its head-to-head win over K-State. And Oklahoma could push K-State out if both teams finish 9-3, because it also beat the Wildcats this season. But if the Wildcats finish 10-2, odds are they finish Cotton Bowl or higher.

Alamo Bowl
Current Odds: Unlikely.
The Alamo Bowl is the only bowl currently signed up to attend K-State’s game on Saturday, but only a certain string of events can send the Wildcats to San Antonio.

Insight Bowl
Current Odds: Extreme long shot.
There is next to no chance K-State ends up here, but I won’t say there is a zero-percent chance.

Holiday Bowl
Current Odds: Zero.
K-State will be picked higher than the Holiday Bowl.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Current Odds: Zero.
Texas A&M, Missouri or Iowa State will end up here.

Pinstripe Bowl
Current Odds: Less than zero.
Who gets this fun destination? Texas A&M or Missouri?