K-Stated

Can Kansas State win the Big 12 North?

Ask that question in Manhattan this week and you’re sure to get all kinds of input. It’s a hot topic right now, and with the Wildcats on top of the division at 2-1 they certainly look like contenders.

But what are their chances of actually besting Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri (those originally picked to fight for the top spot)? And can you really count out Colorado or Iowa State? They’re both 1-1 and are playing tough now too, you know.

It’s a tough division to predict, but here’s how things could shake out.

Let’s start with the current standings:
Kansas State 2-1
Nebraska 1-1
Kansas 1-1
Colorado 1-1
Iowa State 1-2
Missouri 0-2

So far, North teams have fared well at home against other North teams (except Nebraska winning at Mizzou) and horribly against the best teams from the South.

Kansas State fans want that trend to continue.

If it does and North teams lose all remaining games to Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and hold serve at home against other North teams here is what the final standings would look like:

Kansas State 5-3
Colorado 4-4
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5
Missouri 2-6
Iowa State 2-6

If some of those teams break those trends by beating Oklahoma at home or winning a divisional game on the road (very likely) things will look much different.

Based on the schedules, a record of 6-2 should be enough to lock things up no questions asked. Going 5-3 could be enough, too, but a tiebreaker would help. For 4-4 to win it all, these six teams are going to have to beat up on each other a lot. And that would definitely come down to a tiebreaker.

So the North race will not only be about who wins the most games but who wins the right games.

With that in mind, Nebraska seems like the favorite. It already owns a tiebreaker over Missouri and gets Kansas State at home.

K-State has a nice looking schedule, too. But even if it wins out at home it would likely need to win at Nebraska to bypass the Huskers. Going 4-4 with a win at Nebraska could end up being better for K-State than 5-3 with a loss in Lincoln. Though at 4-4 in league play the Wildcats would still need to win the Big 12 championship game to qualify for a bowl.

Wouldn’t that be interesting?

Mizzou will need to win five of its remaining six to even have a chance of getting past Nebraska.

Kansas has the toughest schedule, still having to go to Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas State on top of home games with Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Neither Colorado nor Iowa State have daunting schedules remaining, but at this point it’s hard to see either getting all the way to the top. Especially Iowa State with two losses.

Adjusting the projected records to account for a few North road wins, here is what the final standings could look like:

Nebraska 5-3
K-State 4-4
Kansas 4-4
Missouri 4-4
Colorado 2-6
Iowa State 2-6

Or it could look nothing like that all. The Big 12 North is wide open. Let’s just hope the tiebreaker doesn’t come down to the highest BCS ranking.