Trust in Nate Silver

By Rustin Dodd

So, No. 1 seed Kansas picked up NCAA tourney victories over No. 16 seed Western Kentucky and No. 8 North Carolina this past weekend in Kansas City, advancing to play No. 4 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on Friday in Arlington, Texas.

But did the Jayhawks actually improve their NCAA title odds? The answer is no, if you choose to believe Nate Silver, the statistical wunderkind who predicts presidential elections, writes best-selling books, and projects the NCAA Tournament on the side.

According to Silver’s latest projections, updated Monday on his FiveThirtyEight blog, Kansas now has a 4.5 percent chance to cut down the nets at the Final Four in Atlanta.

The number is down from Silver’s pre-tournament projection of 7.5 percent, which placed the Jayhawks as the fourth best bet behind Louisville, Indiana and Florida. After the opening rounds, KU is now behind tournament favorite Louisville (32.4 percent) and Florida (21.3 percent), the No. 3 seed in the Jayhawks’ South Region. And four other schools also have a better chance of winning it all, according to Silver. No. 1 seed Indiana (10.9 percent), No. 2 Ohio State (6.8 percent), No. 2 Duke (6.0 percent) and No. 4 Syracuse (4.8 percent).

So what’s going on here? Well, Florida Gulf Coast’s run to the Sweet 16 has opened up better odds for No. 3 Florida. And Silver’s model, based on predictive computer formulas (but not R.P.I), likes both Michigan and Florida.

It’s not all bad.

According to Silver’s projections, Kansas is a slight favorite to beat Michigan, with a 54 percent chance to take down the Wolverines and reach the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks also have a 23.3 percent chance to reach the Final Four, and an 11.2 percent chance to reach the title game.

Yes, Silver has pegged the Jayhawks as a considerable long-shot. But remember: Silver’s model gave No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast a 3.3 percent chance to reach the Sweet 16. And the Eagles went all “Dunk City” on No. 2 seed Georgetown and No. 7 San Diego State to join Kansas, Florida and Michigan in the Arlington regional.

The odds of Dunk City crashing Atlanta and cutting down the nets?  0.019 percent.

Getting a look at Michigan

By Rustin Dodd

LAWRENCE — Back home on campus after a successful trip to Kansas City, the No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks now have four days to prepare for their next challenge: No. 4 seed Michigan at 6:37 p.m. on Friday in palatial Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It’s a battle between programs that split the No. 1 ranking in the polls on Jan. 28. Michigan topped the Associated Press poll for the first time since 1992-93, the second season of the Fab Five, while the Jayhawks rose to No. 1 in the coaches poll before losing three straight.

The Jayhawks, of course, rallied to win the Big 12 regular-season crown and earned a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Michigan finished 7-6 while facing a brutal schedule in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines, one of the youngest and most talented teams in the country, appear to have found something in the NCAA Tournament, posting blowout victories over No. 13 South Dakota State and No. 5 seed VCU. Here’s a first look at Michigan, which is making its first appearance in the Sweet 16 since 1994.

THE BREAKDOWN: Michigan and Kansas offer polar opposite styles — at least, according to the advanced stats. The Wolverines, led by sophomore guard Trey Burke, are second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com.) Michigan scores 1.21 points per possession, trailing only No. 1 seed Indiana.)

The Wolverines shoot a respectable 37.5 percent from three-point range, but they also do a solid job of getting good shots, hitting 53.8 percent from two-point range.

Kansas, of course, has the nation’s best interior defender in Jeff Withey, and thus the nation’s best defense inside the three-point line. (The Jayhawks hold opponents to just 38.7 percent on two-point attempts, the best mark in the country by a substantial margin.)

So why did the Wolverines struggle down the stretch in the Big Ten? For one, they rank 41st in defensive efficiency, the fourth worst among teams still in the tournament. Florida Gulf Coast (97th), La Salle (86th) and Marquette (52nd) are the only teams with worse defensive numbers.

Can Michigan stop Kansas? After KU’s victory over No. 8 seed North Carolina on Sunday, the Jayhawks had dropped to 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency.

Which leads to an interesting point: The computer profiles of both teams offer tournament red flags. In the last 10 years, the national champion has ranked in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. Of course, if Kansas or Michigan play well enough to advance to the Final Four and beyond, their efficiency numbers will likely climb.

THE HISTORY: Michigan leads the all-time series 5-2, but KU has won the last two: a 75-64 victory at Allen Fieldhouse on Dec. 19, 2009, and a 67-60 victory in Ann Arbor on Jan. 9, 2011. Kansas coach Bill Self is 8-0 against the Wolverines, including a 6-0 mark at Illinois.

BEST WIN: The Wolverines took down Ohio State 76-74 in overtime in Ann Arbor on Feb. 5. They had dropped the first matchup at Ohio State, a place where Kansas won back in December.

WORST LOSS: Michigan cratered in an 84-78 loss at Penn State on Feb. 27 — a loss that was nearly as bad as Kansas’ loss at TCU. The Wolverines allowed Penn State to shoot 27 of 57 from the floor and committed 15 turnovers.

BEST PLAYER: Sophomore guard Trey Burke is a National Player of the Year candidate after averaging 18.8 points and 6.7 assists and shooting 47.0 percent from the floor.

ONE MORE TO WATCH: Freshman Mitch McGary is a 6-foot-10 forward who played at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, the same prep school that produced former KU All-American Thomas Robinson and current KU guard Naadir Tharpe. Similar to KU freshman Perry Ellis, McGary has had a breakout March. He’s averaging just 6.8 points per game, but he finished with a career-high 21 and 14 rebounds while making 10 of 11 shots against VCU in Michigan’s 78-53 victory over VCU in the round of 32.

 

KU Gameday: UNC’s James Michael McAdoo, McLemore’s struggles, lots of links

We’re closing in on gametime for today’s NCAA Tournament South Regional contests between Kansas and North Carolina from the snow-covered Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., and there’s plenty of big-time storylines happening here … including finding out who Wichita State’s opponent will be when Ole Miss and La Salle play after KU-UNC.

But that’s for later.

I wrote about North Carolina’s James Michael McAdoo leading up to the game, and how he handles the massive amount of expectations heaped on his shoulders in Chapel Hill. The biggest knock on McAdoo seems to be his laid-back approach, but that’s his personality, and his teammates made a point of saying he wasn’t that way on the court. I think if you watch  him play, you can’t help but think he can be more aggressive but he’s young and he seems to just be getting better. His matchup with Kansas center Jeff Withey today will be key.

-There was a lot of talk after KU’s win over Western Kentucky on Friday about the inability of KU guard Ben McLemore to handle the ball in the open floor, and he seems to be struggling down the stretch. Here’s Rick Plumlee’s article on how the Jayhawks need more out of McLemore if they want to advance to the Sweet 16.

-Great read by Rustin Dodd on what happened a decade ago when Roy Williams decided to leave Kansas for North Carolina and the Jayhawks and Bill Self came together. Some of the details in there, including the one on Williams dipping his head after making eye contact with the KU interim AD on a flight back from LA – after he knew he’d already taken the UNC job – are just fantastic.

“I will remember this as vividly as yesterday,” he says. “I looked over at Coach Williams, and our eyes met, and he dropped his head. And I thought, ‘Oh my god, he’s leaving.

-Here’s a photo gallery from yesterday’s media sessions for KU and UNC.
-Here’s a notebook Rick and I put together, including stuff on Roy Williams’ “spells” he suffers through and a few more KU and UNC items.
TA

Surviving the Hilltoppers, Perry Ellis shines, all the KU links you need

Yesterday was a basketball marathon in Kansas City, one with a pair of huge upsets in the West Regional as No. 12 seed Ole Miss defeated No. 5 seed Wisconsin and No. 13 seed La Salle defeated No. 4 seed Kansas State.

And, of course, there was an almost-upset when No. 1 Kansas struggled with No. 16 Western Kentucky but still came out with a 64-57 victory and will face North Carolina on Sunday at 4:15 p.m. at the Sprint Center.

We had the Jayhawks covered from all angles – here’s links to what we wrote and shot yesterday:

-Kansas made sure it wouldn’t be the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16.

-Photo gallery from KU’s win over Western Kentucky with 95 pics … props to Eagle photogs Bo Rader and Travis Heying. 

-KU freshman forward and Wichita native Perry Ellis continues his string of KC masterpieces.

-Adjustments led the Tar Heels to Kansas City. 

-Notebook package from Kansas City – better than your Christmas stocking. 

And here’s Twitter links to our team in Kansas City – KU beat writer Rustin Dodd, Travis, Rick Plumlee and myself.

I’ll be back later today with some more stuff after we get to talk to UNC and KU.

TA

 

 

All the KU links you need

Kansas has been locked in on Western Kentucky since Selection Sunday and the Jayhawks get the late game Friday at the Sprint Center, which should be a pretty wild scene with Roy Williams and North Carolina taking on Villanova right before. Here’s links to all of the KU stuff from our NCAA Tournament preview edition that came out today.

-Perry Ellis finally finds his footing for KU. Watching Ellis’ turnaround in the Big 12 Tournament was nothing short of amazing – if you watched as many KU games as I did this year then you spent most of the season wondering where his head was at. No question about that now.

-Defense helped KU get past midseason slump. 

-The Kansas women’s team isn’t just happy with being in the tourney.  Still can’t believe they got a bid, but all that matters is you make it.

-Hilltoppers get healthy at the right time.

-Looking at the teams in KU’s pod. 

Here’s Twitter links to our Eagle crew covering KU in Kansas City this week – @rustindodd @rickplumlee @t_adame.

TA

A look at KSU-KU, Part III

By Rustin Dodd

On Saturday night at the Sprint Center, No. 1 seed Kansas will face No. 2 seed Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament championship game. It will be the second time in four seasons that the in-state rivals will meet for the conference tournament title — and this one may mean a little more.

They shared the regular crown, turning tonight’s title tilt into a de facto tie-breaker. Here are three things to watch at the Sprint Center.

1. KU’s bench production. Last season, Kansas advanced to the NCAA championship game with a bench that basically amounted to senior guard Conner Teahan and juco transfer forward Kevin Young. The Jayhawks’ reserves played just slightly more than 20 percent of the minutes in six NCAA Tournament games — and just 30.3 minutes per game from the Elite Eight on.

It didn’t matter much.

Depth can be a non-factor in March. Television timeouts are a little longer. Starters play major minutes. And for most of February, it looked as if Kansas would have to follow the same model this season. Sophomore guard Naadir Tharpe and freshman forward Perry Ellis — generally the first two players off KU’s bench — have been inconsistent this year. And freshmen Jamari Traylor, Andrew White III and Rio Adams all need more seasoning.

But in two victories in the Big 12 Tournament, the Jayhawks have tapped into some unforeseen production from the KU reserves. Freshman Perry Ellis had a career-high 23 points in Friday night’s semifinal victory over Iowa State, and the KU bench finished with 37 points. That would have been a season high — if not for the 39 bench points in Thursday’s blowout victory over Texas Tech.

For perspective: In KU’s final six games of the regular season, the bench had averaged just 14 points per game. The bench explosion against Texas Tech was a little misleading — Rio Adams went on a tear in the final minutes, and of course, it was Texas Tech. But if some combo of Ellis, Tharpe and Traylor can give KU productive minutes, it could widen the Jayhawks’ margin for error in March.

2. K-State’s three-point shooting. Kansas State took aim from deep in a 59-55 loss to Kansas at Bramlage Coliseum on Jan. 22. The Wildcats hit just nine of 30 from three-point range, and K-State coach Bruce Weber was questioned about the strategy after the game.

In the rematch in Lawrence, the Wildcats shifted gears, attempting just 19 three-pointers (they hit eight) and attacking the Jayhawks inside. That didn’t work, either. KU center Jeff Withey finished with five blocks (he had zero in the first game), and the Jayhawks limited K-State to just 12 of 31 shooting from two-point range. Will K-State revert to the three-point plan in the third matchup?

3. Can K-State keep KU off the boards? The Jayhawks dominated the offensive glass in the second game in Lawrence, outrebounding K-State 40-23. The Jayhawks nearly had as many offensive rebounds (14) as K-State had defensive (17), and KU turned those extra possessions into 19 second-chance points.

The rebounding advantage wasn’t as stark in Manhattan (KU outrebounded K-State 35-28), but K-State’s Jordan Henriquez and Thomas Gipson will have to find a way to keep the Jayhawks off the boards. If KU senior forward Kevin Young isn’t 100 percent — he suffered a lower-leg injury in Friday’s win over Iowa State — that may help K-State close the gap.

Spring football begins

By Rustin Dodd

LAWRENCE — The Kansas football program began spring practice on Tuesday. The Jayhawks will practice 14 times over the next month before finishing the spring schedule with the program’s spring game at 1 p.m. on Saturday, April 13. Fresh off a 1-11 season in his first season at Kansas, second-year coach Charlie Weis released the initial spring depth chart on Monday.

It features a few mild surprises. But here’s one that isn’t: Junior quarterback Jake Heaps, who sat out last season after transferring from BYU, is listed as the starter at quarterback. Weis, who is very high on Heaps’ ability, said Heaps and sophomore Michael Cummings would be the only quarterbacks to get reps this spring.

Weis listed junior running back Tony Pierson at a new hybrid “F” position that figures to be used in the rushing and passing games. Finally, there are eight players listed as offensive and defensive starters that haven’t played a down for Kansas.

That list, which includes Heaps, also features juco offensive linemen Ngalu Fusimalohi and Mike Smithburg; juco defensive linemen Ty McKinney and Chris Martin; redshirt linebacker Courtney Arnick; redshirt safety Tevin Shaw and junior college safety Cassius Sendish.

Here’s the rest of the depth chart:

OFFENSE

QB: Jake Heaps, Jr. // Michael Cummings, So.

RB: James Sims, Sr. // Taylor Cox, Sr. OR Brandon Bourbon, Jr.

RB/WR: Tony Pierson, Jr. // Colin Spencer, Fr.

LT: Pat Lewandowski, Jr. // Riley Spencer, Sr.

LG: Ngalu Fusimalohi, Jr. // Damon Martin, So.

C: Dylan Admire, So. // Gavin Howard, Sr.

RG: Mike Smithburg, Jr. // Randall Dent, Sr.

RT: Aslam Sterling, Sr. // Brian Beckmann, Fr.

WR (X): Andrew Turzilli, Jr. // Justin McCay, Jr.

WR (Z): Tre Parmalee, So. // Christian Matthews, Sr.

TE: Jimmay Mundine, Jr. // Charles Brooks, Sr.

DEFENSE

LE/T: Jordan Tavai, Sr. // Tedarian Johnson, Jr.

N: Ty McKinney, Jr. // Tyler Holmes, Fr.

RE/T: Keon Stowers, Jr. OR Keba Agostinho, Sr. // Kevin Young

LB (Buck): Chris Martin, Jr. // Ben Goodman, So.

SLB: Courtney Arnick, Fr. // Brian Maura, Jr.

MLB: Ben Heeney, Jr. // Darius Willis, Sr. (Schyler Miles, INJURED)

WLB: Jake Love, So. // Victor Simmons, Jr. (Prinz Kande, INJURED)

CB: Dexter McDonald, Jr. // JaCorey Shepherd, Jr.

SS: Tevin Shaw, Fr. // Ray Mitchell, Jr.

WS: Dexter Linton, Sr. // Greg Allen, Fr.

CB: Cassius Sendish, Jr. // Tyree Williams, So. OR Nasir Moore, Jr.

SPECIALISTS

K: Trevor Pardula, Jr. // Eric Kahn, So. OR Ron Doherty, Sr.

P: Trevor Pardula, Jr. // Ron Doherty, Sr.

LS: Zackary Young, Sr. // Reilly Jeffers, So.

Hold: Blake Jablonski, Jr. // Tre Parmalee, So.

KR: Tony Pierson, Jr. // Brandon Bourbon, Jr.

PR: Tre Parmalee, So. // Nasir Moore, Jr.

More on McLemore

By Rustin Dodd

LAWRENCE — Ben McLemore is the leading scorer on the ninth-ranked team in America. Last week, he became the first freshman in KU history to go for 30 points twice in conference play when he dropped in 30 in an 83-62 victory over Kansas State.

Shortly after, The Eagle profiled McLemore’s journey to Kansas and his transformation into one of the country’s best players. With a matchup with fellow freshman phenom Marcus Smart looming on Wednesday at Oklahoma State, here are five more facts about Kansas’ late-blooming, sharp-shooting and people-pleasing young star.

1 With 13 points in Kansas’ 73-47 victory over Texas on Saturday, McLemore moved in to fourth place on KU’s single-season freshmen scoring list. McLemore, who now has 417 points this season, passed Paul Pierce (404 in ‘95-96) and Kerry Boagni (408 in ‘82-83).

McLemore, averaging 16.7 points per game, is two points ahead of Danny Manning’s record for freshman scoring average (14.6); and with a strong finish, he’ll have a compelling case for the best freshman season in KU history.

McLemore is on pace to finish with the fifth-most rebounds by a KU freshman — ahead of Darrell Arthur, Pierce or Scott Pollard — and the third-most three-point buckets, behind only J.R. Giddens (74) and Jeff Boschee (79).

2 Here is the story of McLemore’s first flight. He was in the eighth grade at Curtis Bishop Middle School in Wellston, Mo. And one day, while shooting in the gym during lunch, McLemore decided to take another run at the rim. This would be his first dunk.

He’d tried for years, of course. Dreamed about finally flushing one like the pros. But he’d never been able to officially claim a dunk. He couldn’t quite get the ball over the rim. Finally, one day, McLemore set up his approach and got just enough lift to push the ball in the basket while his fingers scraped the rim.

McLemore felt a feeling of release … until his friends tried to claim it wasn’t a true dunk.

“Some people say it was like a hard layup,” McLemore says, smiling. “I called it a dunk. I just definitely said: ‘OK, I’m gonna try to do it. And I just ran up and dunked it.’ ”

3 For the better part of the last two months, McLemore has drawn comparisons to former UConn star Ray Allen, an All-Star shooting guard with an immaculate jumper. He’s not the only recent college shooting guard to garner the comp. Former Florida guard Bradley Beal — another St. Louis native who played one summer of AAU ball with McLemore — was compared to Allen while going through the NBA Draft process last summer. (Beal was taken third overall by the Washington Wizards.)

Last month, SI’s Luke Winn broke down the freshman statistics of all three players. McLemore, of course, has the advantage of a redshirt season, but here’s an updated look at how McLemore compares to Beal and Allen.

Ben McLemore

Year: 2012-13

Min/Game: 31.6

Pts/40 minutes: 21.1

Reb/40: 6.9

2FG%: 56.5

3FG%: 43.4

3PA/Total Shots: 113/274 (41 percent of his shots from three-point range)

Ray Allen

Year: 1993-94

Min/Game: 21.6

Pts/40: 23.3

Reb/40: 8.5

2FG%: 54.8

3FG%: 40.2

3PA/Total Shots: 82/310 (26%)

Bradley Beal

Year: 2011-12

Min/Game: 30.8

Pts/40: 17.2

Reb/40: 7.8

2FG%: 54.1

3FG%: 33.9

3PA/Total Shots: 186/393 (47%)

4 McLemore may be having one of the best shooting seasons by a freshman in recent history. According to College Basketball Reference’s “Play Index”, which keeps stats back to the 1998-99 season, McLemore could become the first freshman from a major (BCS-level) conference to shoot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three, and 85 percent from the free-throw line (minimum: 200 shots).

McLemore is currently shooting 43 percent from the floor, 51 percent from three and 87 percent from the free-throw line:

Here’s the list of BCS conference freshmen that have shot 40/50/80 during the same span: North Carolina’s Marvin Williams (’04-05); Georgetown’s Austin Freeman (’07-08); and Duke Kyrie Irving* (‘10-11). Williams and Freeman were far from the first option on their respective teams, while Irving was limited to just 11 games by injury.

5 Here is the nickname story. McLemore is not quite sure how it happened, but at some point last season, while he was redshirting in Lawrence, the Jayhawks’ upperclassmen bestowed a nickname on the coltish freshman: Young Sav … short for Young Savage.

“I got that nickname as soon as I got here,” McLemore says. “(They said) ‘You’re name is Young Sav. Just all the players from last year. ‘You a savage, man. You a Sav.’ To this day, I still don’t know what it means.

These days, McLemore is still trying to turn on the “Sav” as much as possible. He’s a freshman, starting alongside four upperclassmen, and he’s always been the type to let the game come to him. For now, he’s trying to embrace the nickname.

“I don’t know,” McLemore says. “You say a lion is a savage, because they go out there and just hunt and hunt and hunt … and get whatever they want. I think that’s pretty much why they call me Young Sav.”

 

The day after the demolition

 

BY RUSTIN DODD

LAWRENCE — Let’s start here: Kansas’ 62-55 loss at TCU on Wednesday was as historic as it was utterly stunning. There’s no denying that — no matter how you bend or twist the numbers.

Consider:

** According to Ken Pomeroy’s computer rankings, TCU was ranked 270 spots below KU, the close equivalent of a No. 1 seed playing a middling 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

** Kansas had not lost back-to-back games in seven years, a nation-leading span of 264 games.

** The Jayhawks shot 29.5 percent, the worst by a KU team since Self arrived in Lawrence.

But there’s been plenty of analysis on the historical anomaly that was Wednesday’s loss. Now Kansas must move forward, with another road trip to Oklahoma awaiting on Saturday.

So what, exactly, is wrong with Kansas? Well…

1 It starts with guard play. When was the last time KU didn’t feature a guard on the roster that could get his feet in the lane and create plays when the offense broke down? Or, as Bill Self has frequently mentioned, when was the last time KU had a starting backcourt that featured just one primary ballhandler?

On Wednesday, the Jayhawks opened the game with a seven-minute scoring drought, a stretch that magnified KU’s deficiency in the backcourt. The Jayhawks’ top two scoring options — freshman wing Ben McLemore and senior center Jeff Withey — can both be one-dimensional offensive players. McLemore is too often limited to being a spot-up shooter, and Withey must catch in the right position to be effective.

Play against a team that is able to neutralize McLemore and Withey — or miss a few shots — and the Jayhawks’ offense sputters. It doesn’t help, of course, that guards Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe are both shooting worse than 38 percent from the field.

“We’re better players than what we’ve shown,” Self said on Wednesday. “But we’re still not great players. We could have a great team, but we’re not individually a ton of great players.

“We got one guy (McLemore) that’s super-talented. But we just got a bunch of nice players that, when they play well together, they’re pretty good. And right now, we’re not playing very well together.”

Here’s one example. According to an offensive breakdown shared by NBA Draft analyst Jonathan Givoni, the Jayhawks’ half-court offense featured the following against TCU:

McLemore ran four isolation plays and zero pick-and-rolls all night, resulting in four of his 15 points. Meanwhile, Johnson and Tharpe ran a combined 12 pick-and-rolls and isolation plays, resulting in nine points.

(McLemore made six of his 16 shots, while Johnson and Tharpe combined for 19 points on five-of-27 shooting.)

Here’s where the offensive question becomes tricky. Does McLemore lack the requisite skills to make more plays with the ball in his hands — as opposed to catch-and-shoot jumpers — or do Johnson and Tharpe simply use too many of KU’s possessions?

2 Questions at the four-spot. It’s not easy to replace an All-American such as Thomas Robinson. But the Jayhawks entered conference play with a three-man power-forward committee that appeared to be getting the job done. Senior Kevin Young is an energy guy with great passing ability. Freshman Perry Ellis has some natural scoring skills and figured to improve. And redshirt freshman Jamari Traylor, at the very least, brings some toughness and athleticism.

But while Young has stayed consistent, Ellis and Traylor have made limited progress in the last few weeks. And Wednesday was a glaring sign.

Self inserted Ellis into the starting lineup for the first time since November, hoping to give Ellis a shot of confidence and get him going. The freshman responded by scoring zero points in 10 minutes. And after a defensive lapse in the opening minutes of the second half, Self yanked Ellis in favor of Young.

Ellis and Traylor are freshmen who will only get better. That said, the Jayhawks are getting very limited production from their bench and it’s hard to see how it gets much better in the immediate future.

“We’re not very tough,” Self said. “So when things don’t go well, we kind of doubt or quit being aggressive, and certainly there’s a lot of that going on with this team.

“We don’t have answers (where) you can go to the bench to get answers. That’s obviously the case. So we gotta figure out a way to help our guys have the right mind-set to play better.”

3 The Jayhawks have been pushed around — and now the secret is out. After Saturday’s loss against Oklahoma State at Allen Fieldhouse, Self called this Kansas team one of the least physically tough teams he’s coached.

It’s easy to see the line as a challenge to his guys. And sure, it was. But it was also stated as a matter of fact. For the last three years, KU has had forwards — the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson — who brought a presence of rugged toughness. This year, Self starts Withey (220 pounds) and Young (190 pounds), and KU has struggled to be effective against teams that muck it up inside.

Kansas, of course, has nine Big 12 games left, plenty of time to right the ship and start making shots. But after an eight-year run of Big 12 titles — and a seven-year stretch without consecutive losses — Wednesday’s loss to TCU may have cost KU something more than another game in the Big 12 race.

“We can certainly evaluate ourselves differently than what we could a week ago,” Self said. “And hopefully that will help fix some things. But the reality is, we’ve allowed everybody the opportunity to believe that they can beat us. Everybody’s gonna think they can beat us. And they should. We’ve opened up that floodgate.”

 

Self defends Elijah Johnson

By Rustin Dodd

Kansas coach Bill Self is standing behind senior point guard Elijah Johnson.

Despite a rash of turnovers and sloppy performances from Johnson over the last month, Self said Monday during the Big 12 teleconference that he didn’t foresee any major changes in minutes or playing time in the guard rotation,

“Elijah’s my guy,” Self said. “He’s my guy, and we have the best chance to win with Elijah in the game. And he’s learning how to play a position, and he’s thinking too much instead of playing.

“But that is the horse that we are gonna ride. And I believe that will be the best for our team.”

Self’s statement of support comes two days after Johnson finished with four turnovers while shooting three of 14 from the field in an 85-80 loss against Oklahoma State, a defeat that snapped KU’s 18-game winning streak and 33-game run at Allen Fieldhouse.

“We don’t have a point guard,” Self said after the loss, bluntly addressing his team’s guard play.

In his first season as Kansas’ lead guard, Johnson is averaging 9.3 points while shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 33 percent from the three-point line. But he’s also struggled to become a consistent facilitator for a KU offense that struggled to score points for most of January.

And turnovers have been costly. Johnson has recorded 19 turnovers against 19 assists in KU’s last five games. While Self says the guard play must improve, he’s not ready to give up on Johnson.

“We are 19-2,” Self said, “and the players that have been playing the majority of the minutes have performed at a reasonably high-level … we’ve had some guys play unbelievably well in some situations, and some guys maybe haven’t.

“But we’ve found a way to kind of piece it together. And we haven’t got consistent guard play. We’ve got to do a better job of helping Naadir (Tharpe) and Elijah.”