Nice analogy on how numbers can say whatever you want them to say, a subject that’s been bouncing around the newsroom as we weigh how to best report the highs and lows of the Wichita housing market.

There’s a different set of numbers out there called “pending home sales,” or sales gone to contract. The National Association of Realtors produces a Pending Home Sales Index, and trumpets it as a “leading indicator of housing market activity.”

Check this link for NAR’s definition of a pending home sale.

The pending sale numbers first reared their heads down here at the Eagleland Businessplex last year as the Wichita housing market began its slide downward from record levels. It came as a small portion of the local residential industry began to implore the Eagle to put a more positive spin on the declining monthly home sales numbers.

Today, a year later, we tend to look at the pending sales numbers this way: A contract is not a sale until the deal closes. NAR states in its link that it believes 80 percent of all pending sales close; after some anecdotal checking locally, agents and brokers put that number at 65 to 70 percent in Wichita.

Thus, we’re not inclined to attach much value to a “pending home sale” report. If the deal closes, it’ll show up in the Wichita numbers a month or two later. But I’m interested in your feedback. Let me know what you think about the pending home sale as a reliable measure of real estate activity.

Well, with apologies to Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend, as this AP story from the last week indicates.

Excellent analysis, and it fits well with a growing fear among Wichita brokers and agents: Sales may bottom again if the government doesn’t renew or expand its tax credit program for homebuyers.

We’ve talked a lot about the fundamental strengths of the Wichita market – pricing, inventory, values.

But, I have my doubts that this market is ready to breathe on its own.

Your thoughts?

I guess that when you consider the number of deadbeats that Todd Haley and Scott Pioli are shipping out of KC, the top slot is a lofty perch that should only be solidified over the next few months.

Oh, to be Brian Waters’ realtor …

That’s up almost 10 percent from June 2008, according to the article.

A British analyst says commercial real estate prices fell by double digits in the first quarter.

And a second calls today’s National Association of Realtors housing sales report for April an indication that the market has bottomed out and the recession is ending.

The second story is overly optimistic in the eyes of Wichita’s residential brokers and analysts, who say the local market has a long way to go to recover.

And no recovery is likely until job security increases in the Wichita area.

LifeStyle Builders and Developers, Inc., a Richmond based homebuilder, has announced a new job loss mortgage protection program, Mortgage Guardian. Under this program, if a homeowner becomes involuntarily unemployed, $1,500 of their mortgage will be covered for up to six months.

“For anyone who has even thought about buying a new home, now really is the best time to take action. There is a large selection of available inventory, and prices are at an all-time value. However, with today’s economic climate, many people are hesitant to take that step towards home ownership. We hope that our Mortgage Guardian program will ease the stress and concern about possible job loss, and give homebuyers the confidence to take advantage of today’s great real estate deals.” said Lloyd Poe, owner of LifeStyle Builders.

LifeStyle Builders’ Mortgage Guardian offers coverage for 12 months from the closing date, and a maximum benefit of $1,500 per month, in cash, payable to the homeowner, for up to six months. An additional feature is a $10,000 Accidental Death Benefit. LifeStyle Builders will automatically include Mortgage Guardian with all contracts written after May 1 at no cost to the new homeowner.

Since analysts and brokers agree that declining consumer confidence is the biggest challenge before the Wichita housing market, it shouldn’t be long before a homebuilder duplicates this program here.

It appears that Elkington’s signature project, Beale Street, has become a legal hot potato in Memphis, with the city suing Elkington’s Perfoma group and Elkington replying in kind.

Meanwhile, WaterWalk remains a stretch of barren ground, surrounding the lofts and office project, the Wichita Area Association of Realtors and Gander Mountain.

It’ll be interesting to see what direction new Wichita City Manager Bob Layton can help provide.

While prices here remain basically stable, there are $500,000 homes in California changing hands for $200,000.

“EVVVVERY HOME MUSTTTT GOOOO! Bad credit, no problem. No down payment, no problem. No money, big problem.”

And durable goods orders, which also jumped in February – after a January that was worse than originally thought.

We’re standing by, awaiting the release of the February new and existing home sales numbers in Wichita.

February ended without the issuance of a single new home permit, a stark contrast to the 1990s when about 1,100 were issued every month.

City officials blame the economy, which is a good bet, but I wonder if Overland Park just isn’t built out. Overbuilding is the biggest enemy of any housing market, and you wonder if the city won’t confront that soon.