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Visioneering message: Be aggressive

It’s a terrible football analogy, but the central theme of Thursday’s Visioneering Wichita presentations applies: Chattanooga isn’t building a modern downtown by reading the market and reacting; they’re running a full-scale blitz.

We’ll have more on the theme in Friday’s Eagle, but one fascinating example is partially hidden in a south Chattanooga storefront: Create Here is a one-stop shop melding the arts and business education that’s all about “talent retention,” according to Helen Johnson, one of the founders. It’s goal is to give Chattanooga residents the tools to profit from their creativity, growing the city’s talent base and thus its economic foundation.

Create Here doesn’t have anything that Wichita doesn’t: the arts, business education, community activisim.

But what it does remarkably, as Johnson puts it, is fight the perception that all those functions need to be “siloed,” or segregated as separate community institutions.

“What we do, instead, is encourage people to think across all these disciplines as a platform for community change,” Johnson said.

Create Here won’t be around forever, Johnson said. She has no interest in perpetuating it as an institution. But she intends for its wide-ranging programs, from artist recruitment to business planning classes, to live on.

Hand-in-hand for marketshare

One of the interesting themes emerging in this morning’s discussion in Chattanooga is the cooperative hospitality effort to recruit convention and corporate business.

“We truly work together, and we’re always interested in bringing new business to Chattanooga rather than fighting back and forth,” said Tom Cupo, general manager of The Chattanoogan, the city-owned hotel and convention center.

“We’re interested in making the pie bigger rather than stealing marketshare.”

There’s a lesson there for Wichita, in hospitality business recruitment and on a broader downtown revitalization scale.

Redeveloping right in Chattanooga

We’re nowhere near the end of a whirlwind first day in Chattanooga as I write this, but wow.

Just wow.

What we’ve seen in less than a day on the Tennessee River is the culmination of 40 years of planning. From a tightly constructed arts and entertainment corridor that connects the river with a historic American arts complex to a green housing development to a double-pronged transit plan that makes the city easy to navigate, it’s not hard to see why Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer said at midday,  “This is what we want to be.”

Chattanooga has transformed itself in four decades in a massive public-private investment partnership that’s run into the billions. City leaders here consider it a success, and who can doubt them? New, modern private development is everywhere. Volkswagen and two other major industries have signed on, thanks to the quality of life the city has created and its willingness to give those companies incentives.

That’s not to say that Chattanooga doesn’t have its rundown areas. But city leaders have ideas in place for the most moribund areas, and they’re able to chuckle at some of the long-forgotten businesses there, such as the “State of Confusion” frontage on one downtown street.

One big dream here is a plan to use passenger rail to connect a billion-dollar development project in the south part of the city with downtown and UT-Chattanooga.

If there’s a message in what we’ve seen today, it’s that dreaming isn’t a junket and it isn’t a boondoggle. Because without dreams, progress is impossible.

Goldman Sachs: The oil producer’s best friend

We oil speculators must rejoice today, since prices rebounded after a rather steep fall over the last few days.

Our friends at Goldman Sachs – those fellows who tried to sell the notion a few weeks ago that natural gas prices should triple this winter, despite unprecedented inventories and sagging demand – get some of the credit. Amazingly, the GS folks think that oil is headed to between $85 and $90. What were the odds?

I think the problem we speculators face is where we speculate on oil: At the gas pump, where the speculation is how much more we’re going to pay next week because of the real speculators.

Spending money to make money

It’s been a good week for the downtown venom-spewers: The NCAA says “no” to a proposal to host the men’s basketball first and second rounds at Intrust Bank Arena, and the arena parking debate moves into a higher gear today.

That’s why you’ll find a lot of people claiming vindication on Kansas.com today.

I’m not entirely unsympathetic to their concerns: This is a time when it seems like everyone has their hands in your pockets, and in my case, they’re down to fishing for pennies and nickels now. Don’t get me started on how financial institutions have reacted to the looming specter of regulation. Let’s just say they’ve got BIG hands.

But I wonder how the local “Oh, my God, don’t spend a dime” crowd will react in five years if Wichita’s economy remains in the toilet because the city and county fathers fell victim to economic panic and quit planning for the future.

I hear a lot about how the “free market” solves every economic problem. And although “free market” is Latin for “no regulations so I can make a bunch of money any old way possible” to a lot of folks, there are still free markets in Wichita.

To wit: Two of the city’s largest real estate brokerages are making changes and spending money in an effort to position themselves at the top of the industry – when the Wichita economy recovers.

J.P. Weigand & Sons has been nothing short of aggressive, opening new divisions and adding more staff to position itself for the economic recovery. Same story at Plaza Real Estate, which linked up with the national Coldwell Banker flag.

They share a simple idea: You’ve got to spend money to make money. And from where I sit, Wichitans need to keep that idea in mind as they grind their teeth over each and every expenditure at City Hall and the county courthouse.

Each expenditure comes with accountability down the road. Some will work out. I suspect some won’t.

But so does inaction.

Is customer service dead?

It happens more often than not anymore. You pick up the phone to call a business. Almost any business. There’s a flat monotone on the other end.

“Who? He’s not here.”

“Well, do you expect him back today.”

“I don’t know.”

“Can I leave a message?

“What is it?”

“Well, can I have his voice mail?”

“I suppose.”

We laugh sometimes at the Eagleland Businessplex about the opposite – the bright voice proclaiming that “It’s a great day at Willie’s Widget World.”

But with the death of customer service apparently at hand, those bright voices become less funny. And fewer.

I give it six months until “What do you want?” becomes the standard receptionist’s line in Wichita.

Manipulating the media

It’s been awhile since we chatted about commodities trading, and the bald-faced manipulation of energy commodities by those in position to profit the most from any inexplicable rise in prices.

But, our pals at Goldman Sachs have given us a reason to bring the subject up again, courtesy of this MSNBC story.

Seems that they’re doing their best to prop up the sagging price of natural gas, with a baseless forecast that natural gas prices could triple this winter. Sort of the “Meet my wife, Morgan Fairchild. Yeah, that’s the ticket” shtick, commodities-style.

Read very carefully the recap of natural gas market fundamentals that follows in the story: There’s NO reason whatsoever that the price should rise. A bit.

Except, of course, for commodities traders, investment houses and financial voodoo – including a figurative yell of “fire” in the trading theater.

Update: An energy icon says oil and natural gas prices are headed down.

On downtown, jails and redevelopment

WICHITA – A wise person once wrote, “When all is said and done, much more will be said than done.”

That captures the escalating public debate over Sedgwick County’s jail overcrowding problem and what impact, if any, it might have on downtown revitalization.

I have an idea: Let’s get the county, the city, the downtown revitalization folks, the city’s downtown master planner and the county’s jail consultant together at a table to hash this out in a month or so.

To the county and city: My bill is in the mail. Please pay within 30 days.

Seriously, though, some thoughts: I walk away from this raging debate confident that Sedgwick County won’t disrupt downtown revitalization by dumping a work-release center in between Bodacious Bob’s Burger Barn and Selma’s Sundress Senter down by the arena. Admittedly, it doesn’t look like it now, but I have a strong sense that cooler heads are going to prevail.

In the midst of the maelstrom, Sedgwick County Sheriff Bob Hinshaw has been crystal clear, though: His consultant and his criminal justice advisory group will tell him and commissioners whether the county needs a higher-security lockup near the county courthouse downtown, a work-release center that can be dropped on any city bus route or a minimum security commitment center that can go anywhere.

Instead, we’ve got claims, counterclaims and enough backpeddling to make a defensive backfield coach deliriously happy.

It’s unnecessary. What we have here, folks, is a failure to communicate. So let’s talk and fix it.

Tell your statistics to shut up

There’s an old Peanuts cartoon with the beleaguered Charlie Brown on the baseball field, absorbing another beating. One of the characters begins quoting a line of statistics, and is told, “Tell your statistics to shut up.”

Nice analogy on how numbers can say whatever you want them to say, a subject that’s been bouncing around the newsroom as we weigh how to best report the highs and lows of the Wichita housing market.

There’s a different set of numbers out there called “pending home sales,” or sales gone to contract. The National Association of Realtors produces a Pending Home Sales Index, and trumpets it as a “leading indicator of housing market activity.”

Check this link for NAR’s definition of a pending home sale.

The pending sale numbers first reared their heads down here at the Eagleland Businessplex last year as the Wichita housing market began its slide downward from record levels. It came as a small portion of the local residential industry began to implore the Eagle to put a more positive spin on the declining monthly home sales numbers.

Today, a year later, we tend to look at the pending sales numbers this way: A contract is not a sale until the deal closes. NAR states in its link that it believes 80 percent of all pending sales close; after some anecdotal checking locally, agents and brokers put that number at 65 to 70 percent in Wichita.

Thus, we’re not inclined to attach much value to a “pending home sale” report. If the deal closes, it’ll show up in the Wichita numbers a month or two later. But I’m interested in your feedback. Let me know what you think about the pending home sale as a reliable measure of real estate activity.

Think housing has bottomed? Not so fast, my friend

It’s everywhere in the media: The U.S. housing market has bottomed out. The worst is over.

Well, with apologies to Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend, as this AP story from the last week indicates.

Excellent analysis, and it fits well with a growing fear among Wichita brokers and agents: Sales may bottom again if the government doesn’t renew or expand its tax credit program for homebuyers.

We’ve talked a lot about the fundamental strengths of the Wichita market – pricing, inventory, values.

But, I have my doubts that this market is ready to breathe on its own.

Your thoughts?

Killing a Wichita institution

The National Baseball Congress sits on the fringe of a business definition these days, given its ownership by the city of Wichita. But what’s happening to it is on my mind.

The tournament, which is a Wichita institution since Hap Dumont began it here in 1935, hit one of its low ebbs this summer on what should have been the gala celebration of its 75th anniversary.

Two reasons, as a longtime observer: Tournament management’s fixation on forcing teams to qualify and its insistence on a heavy local flavor.

Take a look at the bracket at www.nbcbaseball.com, and tell me exactly how many teams you’ve heard of. The answer for me is not many, and I’ve been going to tournament games since I was 7 – a LONG time.

But there are plenty of cities you’ve heard of – Valley Center, Newton, etc. – none who will make more than a cursory appearance in the tournament.

And then take note of the fate that befell the defending champ, Santa Barbara, Calif. – a probable second round match-up with the Alaska League All-Stars, who will be wearing Anchorage blue this summer.

I could rant on this for a thousand more words, but suffice to say it’s my view the NBC’s baseball model is badly flawed. And based on a Sunday Eagle report, it’s about to get more flawed if NBC officials narrow the tournament to only champions of their accredited leagues, some which apparently can’t send quality teams to the tournament, given the look of recent fields.

Get the familiar teams in the tournament at all costs. There’s NO excuse to ever stage a tournament without the El Dorado Broncos, an Alaska team, the Beatrice Bruins, the Seattle Studs, the Liberal BeeJays and similar teams. Rarely do any of the old standards field a truly bad team.  Stage quality regional tournaments to fill the field.

And then trim the sucker down and play 12 days of quality baseball.

Or people who haven’t spent most of their lives at the tournament will quit coming. And that’s a tragedy.

Getting out of Dodge, in Kansas City

Here’s one of the more interesting Internet real estate stories I’ve seen lately – as much for the bizarre analogy it begins with as the fact that Kansas City is the leader in abandoned cities in the country.

I guess that when you consider the number of deadbeats that Todd Haley and Scott Pioli are shipping out of KC, the top slot is a lofty perch that should only be solidified over the next few months.

Oh, to be Brian Waters’ realtor …