It’s everywhere in the media: The U.S. housing market has bottomed out. The worst is over.
Well, with apologies to Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend, as this AP story from the last week indicates.
Excellent analysis, and it fits well with a growing fear among Wichita brokers and agents: Sales may bottom again if the government doesn’t renew or expand its tax credit program for homebuyers.
We’ve talked a lot about the fundamental strengths of the Wichita market – pricing, inventory, values.
But, I have my doubts that this market is ready to breathe on its own.
Your thoughts?
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From your referenced article:
“As long as jobs are being lost, regardless of all the federal programs out there to help the borrowers, you’re still going to have problems in the housing market,”
“In the longer term, I’m confident that the real estate market is going to shift where buyers are coming out not only because of attractive interest rates and low prices, but because more people are getting jobs,”
“Manhattan’s real estate market, long immune from price declines, tanked this year as tens of thousands of people lost their jobs.”
“The jobless rate in the Midwest is 10.2 percent compared with 9.5 percent nationally. And if you don’t have a job you are not buying a house.”
“Before we can even talk about the housing sector materially improving, we’re going to have to see these job losses get down quite a bit,”
“Unemployment is at 10.2 percent in the West, but that could go higher if the economy worsens. If that happens, expect more foreclosures and a slower turnaround.”
Non-government job creation is the only answer to this economic situation. Wichita is not exempt.
I agree. Non-government job creation is the breathing to which I refer.
Ergo, I think the concern about the local market’s reaction to any end to the tax credits is legitimate. If the credit ends – and it very well may not – then I expect sales numbers here to drop off again. Certainly, there aren’t a lot of signs that the aviation companies are finished trimming staff.
It is unfortunate that our local economy is still tied so much toaviation. Employment overall is a lagging indicator; aviation employment is a LAGGING lagging indicator.
Example of diversification building on our strength – why are we not building wind turbines here? Nacelles, propellers, aerodynamics, light-weight composites, etc. Don’t we have companies here with those capabilities?
We have companies with the capabilities you mention. I am not aware of any that have the type of capacity to handle the size of some of the components. We’re talking a product that has the footprint of a 747.
As a local manufacturer, I have a different slant on it. I do not believe in the product, therefore will not target it.
I don’t know that they have quite the footprint of a 747 but they ARE oarge. And I would guess that Spirit and Boeing could hande the size with other suppliers prividing components.
Of course, since you don’t believe in it (for whatever reason) you are free not to take the money.
Here you go:
http://www.gardnermountain.org/articles/24
It’s really that easy to you isn’t it? Don’t take the money. Astounding.
When you said ‘footprint’ I interpreted that as the actual amount of ground covered (the ‘pedestal print’ if you will). So, what’s the problem with the large canopy coverage? Especially in the Great Plains?
I suppose that as a proffesional sciemtist I focus on the BOTH benefits and risks; not solely the possible downsides. I’d rather have a wind farm up-wind of me than a coal plant.
Capacity refers to size (and sometimes quantity) of parts. Yes, many local vendors have the capability to make composite parts. But very few have the capacity to make such absolutely immense parts.
Spirit?