The National Retail Federation is forecasting a very gloomy 2009 retailing year. Big surprise.
But in light of a comment made by Wichita State economist Stan Longhofer last week, I wonder if Wichita’s retailing year won’t be better than anticipated.
Longhofer opined that Wichita consumers – the context was homebuyers, but it’s applicable across many sales sectors, I think – need a little security to buy. They need a sense that the government’s got a grasp on the economic problems, that their jobs are safer, before they spend. Some think that sense will arrive sometime this summer.
Certainly, that sense doesn’t exist yet. I spent a sick day Tuesday drifting in and out of sleep, listening to a steady stream of bad economic news on television, none of which I really question. I hear a lot of businesspeople wanting to kill the messenger, but not a lot of them refuting the reports.
But my sense is that we’re all so hungry for some economic good news that we’ll react strongly. It might be as simple as a big airplane order in Wichita, or as complicated as a return to some form of national economic growth. Whatever the trigger, I suspect retailing in Wichita will rebound faster than people think.