The first sparks of an eventual renewal in the business aviation industry will begin in the United States, according to Brian Foley Associates.
That’s good news since the U.S. has been the industry’s biggest market, accounting for 64 percent of the active worldwide business jet fleet, the business aviation consulting firm said.
The recession that hit the U.S. and the business jet market began in 2007, well before the rest of the world began to downturn, said Brian Foley, president of the firm.
“As such a first-in, first-out scenario will occur with the U.S. recovering before other regions,” he said. That will be aided by the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, which outspends other places in the world.
Business jets are priced in dollars. So any early international demand would be tempered by a dollar that is now 20 percent higher than a year ago.
But before any comeback, key indicators must improve. Those include lower used aircraft inventories, higher utilization, GDP, corporate profits, stock market levels and credit availability, he said.
Even then, “the pace of recovery will be subdued by sizeable negative wealth affects, lingering credit constraints and remnants of Capitol Hill jet bashing,” Foley said.
